538 model & poll tracker thread

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's a rounded 90, he's actually at 89.6 or so.  I think he needs to actually reach 90 to be "strongly favored."

By my calculations Biden is one "dot" away from "clearly favored."

[Gass3268]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

[Smash255]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

If you download the model outputs at the bottom of the page and open up national toplines from that dataset into excel.   It is up to 10.03% as of this morning

[Gass3268]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

If you download the model outputs at the bottom of the page and open up national toplines from that dataset into excel.   It is up to 10.03% as of this morning

Thanks!

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

Also this: https://electionforecastjs.web.app/

[Gass3268]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

Also this: https://electionforecastjs.web.app/

Thank you!

[LimoLiberal]

Biden's lead down to 8.6, which is a bit worrying, but we're still waiting on live-callers from Marist, ABC/WaPo, and NBC/WSJ.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I want single digits by Tuesday!

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.

Where can you see it down to that level?

Also this: https://electionforecastjs.web.app/

bruh

[Gass3268]

Biden's lead down to 8.6, which is a bit worrying, but we're still waiting on live-callers from Marist, ABC/WaPo, and NBC/WSJ.

Also, Nate has said that polls before the last debate are really no longer having much of an effect in the model. Which means if these are close to their last polls or even marginal tightening, we could actually see Biden’s margin go up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

[soundchaser]

Worth noting that even after the Selzer poll, Biden is still at 90% to win. (And wait — if polls were “exactly as wrong as 2016,” wouldn’t Biden be winning Texas?)

[Smash255]

Worth noting that even after the Selzer poll, Biden is still at 90% to win. (And wait — if polls were “exactly as wrong as 2016,” wouldn’t Biden be winning Texas?)

It did tick down  to 89 after the Seltzer poll came out, but after the FL & PA WAPO polls and the economic index going down slightly more it went back up to the 90% mark

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

South Carolina dragged it's northern brother back across the red-state line.

"Oh no no, we're in this together."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

South Carolina dragged it's northern brother back across the red-state line.

"Oh no no, we're in this together."

Quote from the wonderful movie 1776 (multiple times): "North Carolina yields to South Carolina."

[wbrocks67]

I think the 538 forecast may be most off with PA of the "midwest" states. We've been getting constant medium-to-high quality polls with Biden up 6-8 there but they are letting the average be dragged down by low quality stuff (only 4.9 right now) despite getting A+ polls for +6 and +7 today.

[Gustaf]

Lol, 538 isn't considering Wisconsin and Michigan to be competitive races anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And on the day before the election, 538 finally shows Biden as "clearly favored".

[wbrocks67]

We've had numerous legitimate higher quality national polls at Biden +10, yet the average remains at +8.5 thanks to IBD + lower quality outfits

[Horus]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

[Person Man]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

He's about where Romney was at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Polls entered this morning: +10, +10, +12, +10, +8, +11

> average drops from +8.6 to +8.5. Makes no sense.

[charcuterie]

Polls entered this morning: +10, +10, +12, +10, +8, +11

> average drops from +8.6 to +8.5. Makes no sense.

It's probably more pro-Biden older polls dropping out of the averages. It is a bit strange to see though.

[Dr. Arch]

The model now says that Biden is "clearly favored".

[Angel of Death]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

He's about where Romney was at this point.

I'd focus on Biden's percentage instead, because Trump would likely be reelected in case of a 269-269 tie.

[Person Man]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

He's about where Romney was at this point.

I'd focus on Biden's percentage instead, because Trump would likely be reelected in case of a 269-269 tie.

I mean probability