ME- Victory Geek (D): Gideon +9
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Author Topic: ME- Victory Geek (D): Gideon +9  (Read 2451 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: May 28, 2020, 06:49:07 AM »

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200528_ME.pdf

Gideon   51
Collins    42


Favorables: Collins 45/51, Gideon 54/37
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2020, 06:56:11 AM »

Is this a poll actually commissioned by 538? I canít read the text of the write up on my phone for whatever reason
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2020, 07:01:06 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 07:05:12 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Is this a poll actually commissioned by 538? I canít read the text of the write up on my phone for whatever reason

They often upload the toplines for polls they didn't request after reaching out to those who did produce them but only released one figure or two.

Here's two other matchups from the same poll:

Betsy Sweet 44%
Collins 43%
Undecided 10%

Generic D 49%
Collins 39%
Undecided 12%

And the primary figures:

Gideon 64%
Sweet 17%
Undecided 19%

If Collins is doing this badly, Trump's figures are probably terrible. ME-AL is an overrated flip for Republicans; they can do it, but it's not going to be a tipping point state and is only worth defending for the NRSC.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2020, 07:04:00 AM »

Since this is a D internal, the numbers are probably D-friendly. Still, I'm feeling better about our chances in this race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2020, 07:24:55 AM »

A D internal does not make up for Gideon being up nearly *10 points* though. Collins is clearly in real big trouble.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2020, 07:42:07 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 07:47:37 AM by Cory Booker »

Good news, so much for Rs saying that Collins is moderate enough to win reelection,  her vote to acquit Trump, just like Gardner backfired
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OneJ
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2020, 07:49:10 AM »

The takeaway here shouldn't just be "it's a D internal and the margin looks too friendly to Gideon." It's that with all the other information we know about this race (Collins' rapidly declining popularity, Gideon catching up to her and even leading her in some other polls, polarization in general, etc.) it's likely a safe bet that Collins is behind at the moment. Even when subtracting some points from Gideon she still leads. Also, Gideon surpassing 50 is good news for her.

This poll should be deeply troubling to Collins.



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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2020, 07:53:46 AM »


This poll should be deeply troubling to Collins.


Hopefully, it's about as effective in getting her to change course as everything else that is "deeply troubling" to her.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2020, 07:54:18 AM »

The same D internal showed Bullock ahead of Daines by 7 pts and McConnell is running for reelection in and running ads on Cornyn, Daines and his behalf.

The Senate is lost since Ds have 51 seats already AZ, CO, ME, MT and NC leading in polls and the Dems wont even need a tiebreaker with GA runoff
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JRP1994
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2020, 07:54:31 AM »

Hope that furrowed brow while voting for Kavanaugh was fun, Susan
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2020, 08:05:52 AM »

Huh.  I guess I never realized that since 1972, the Democrats have only won TWO counties in elections for Maine's Senate Seat I (both were in 1996).

Anyway, while I would normally say "it's too far out to glean much from this poll", Maine is a special animal.  

If this poll was in, say, Arizona or even North Carolina, I would be wary.  But Collins' past election performances demonstrate that there was a non-negligible cohort of Democratic Presidential candidate/Susan Collins voters.  I can't see that being the case (or, at least, to such a large effect) in 2020.  If a voter is not willing to vote for Collins now, it's unlikely IMO that he or she will warm up to Miss Collins between now and November, especially on Trump's coattails ("You know? I was going to vote for Gideon, but since I'm voting for Trump, I'm going to vote for Collins.")  

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2020, 08:20:54 AM »

Gideon is going to have tons of cash, too. Didn't she raise $7M last quarter, and none of that even includes the $4M+ she gets when she becomes the nominee from the online Kavanaugh fundraiser thing?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2020, 08:22:40 AM »

Collins is going to be very disappointed with this poll.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2020, 08:58:10 AM »

Did anyone bother to read the results? This is one of the worst and laziest polls I've seen. It has Gideon doing better in the 2nd district than the 1st, and a 45 point age gap... a 45 point age gap between the Collins leading Gideon by 26 points with <30's and Gideon leading by 19 with >65's. The worst offender - no education breakdown, AT ALL. No presidential poll to compare/contrast. etc. It may as well be a fake poll.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2020, 09:29:08 AM »

Did anyone bother to read the results? This is one of the worst and laziest polls I've seen. It has Gideon doing better in the 2nd district than the 1st, and a 45 point age gap... a 45 point age gap between the Collins leading Gideon by 26 points with <30's and Gideon leading by 19 with >65's. The worst offender - no education breakdown, AT ALL. No presidential poll to compare/contrast. etc. It may as well be a fake poll.

Youíre reading way too much into crosstabs.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2020, 09:31:52 AM »

Even if this has some D-bias, a pretty good lead for Gideon here. Hopefully we can beat annoying fake moderate Collins. Still having this as pure tossup.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2020, 09:44:57 AM »

Did anyone bother to read the results? This is one of the worst and laziest polls I've seen. It has Gideon doing better in the 2nd district than the 1st, and a 45 point age gap... a 45 point age gap between the Collins leading Gideon by 26 points with <30's and Gideon leading by 19 with >65's. The worst offender - no education breakdown, AT ALL. No presidential poll to compare/contrast. etc. It may as well be a fake poll.

Youíre reading way too much into crosstabs.

That's your response? I'm trying to display how bad it's overall quality is to people who clearly believe any poll without reading it. This is not a bias problem but a credibility problem. It should be disregarded, completely. I can't believe I'm getting called out for being too detail-driven on a no life forum like this.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2020, 09:49:59 AM »

Elections Guy, and MT Treasurer thinks Ernst and Susan Collins are unbeatable Titans, we just to prove them wrong in Nov, when they both lose
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Panda Express
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2020, 09:54:29 AM »

This is one of the worst and laziest polls I've seen. It has Gideon doing better in the 2nd district than the 1st, and a 45 point age gap... a 45 point age gap between the Collins leading Gideon by 26 points with <30's and Gideon leading by 19 with >65's.

If you walk onto any college campus in Maine, you will see that the Che Guevara posters that once adorned the dorm walls have been replaced with Susan Collins posters.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2020, 10:31:07 AM »

Did anyone bother to read the results? This is one of the worst and laziest polls I've seen. It has Gideon doing better in the 2nd district than the 1st, and a 45 point age gap... a 45 point age gap between the Collins leading Gideon by 26 points with <30's and Gideon leading by 19 with >65's. The worst offender - no education breakdown, AT ALL. No presidential poll to compare/contrast. etc. It may as well be a fake poll.

Youíre reading way too much into crosstabs.

That's your response? I'm trying to display how bad it's overall quality is to people who clearly believe any poll without reading it. This is not a bias problem but a credibility problem. It should be disregarded, completely. I can't believe I'm getting called out for being too detail-driven on a no life forum like this.

I am not calling you out for being detail-driven. I am merely pointing out that a lot of your problems with this poll (and several other polls you have trashed over the past several months) are related to crosstabs, which are inherently unreliable. Letís take a look at the sample sizes of the crosstabs you pointed out:
CDs: not mentioned but if thereís a 53% CD-01/47% CD-02 split like 2016, we can say we have roughly n = 240 in ME-02, a margin of error of 6.3%. The CD-01 sample at 272 is at 5.9%. Given that the poll has Gideon only marginally doing better in CD-02 anyway, this is nowhere near significant.

Age: The under 29 sample is literally 66 people! Thatís an MoE of over a dozen points! Even the 65+ crosstab has a margin of error of close to 8! You can virtually wipe out the age gap in this poll just factoring that in.

The lack of education breakdown is a valid concern especially in a state like Maine, I will agree with that. And I would have liked a Presidential poll although not having it there doesnít make it a junk poll.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2020, 10:35:53 AM »

Crosstabs have massive margins of error and they should frequently show weird results, even in a high-quality poll. If anything, unless a poll has a unusually massive sample size, you should be suspicious of polls where the crosstabs look squeaky clean across the board and show exactly what you expect.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2020, 10:56:49 AM »

The keep doing the high quality polls in safe states, and then when a tossup race like Maine is polled, it's a D pollster Sad
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2020, 11:12:48 AM »

The keep doing the high quality polls in safe states, and then when a tossup race like Maine is polled, it's a D pollster Sad

McConnell is campaigning in both KY and MT, that's why the MT poll that showed Daines down by 7 was so devestating to Daines due to fact, Daines doesnt want to campaign on his own behalf, he is asking for McConnell to do it for him.

Biden is ahead nationally by 6 points that are pulling AZ, CO, ME, and MT to the D fold and hopefully NC, too
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Donald Trump Is A Worthless Tub Of Lard
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2020, 11:41:19 AM »

Collins made a massive mistake putting herself front and center defending Kavanaugh.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2020, 11:53:56 AM »

The keep doing the high quality polls in safe states, and then when a tossup race like Maine is polled, it's a D pollster Sad

polling this cycle in general so far has been surprisingly, and frustratingly, low
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