ME- Victory Geek (D): Gideon +9

[brucejoel99]

Collins is going to be very disappointed with this poll.

I'd even go so far to say that she's troubled by this new poll. But it's ok, I'm sure she'll learn a lesson from it.

[Calthrina950]

While I don't think Gideon is up by this much, this poll provides yet further confirmation that Collins is in serious jeopardy. This is now the third poll this year to show Collins trailing. I personally am still of the belief that Collins will eke out a narrow victory, but as I've said before, she could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. And if Collins is doing this poorly, then it's hard for me to see Trump winning Maine, even if he comes as close as he did last time.

[Canis]

Poll also has a betsy sweet vs susan collins matchup with Sweet ahead of collins by one point 44-43 with 10 Percent undecided

[Pollster]

The Congressional district breakdown here is, uh, interesting:

Democrat vs. Susan Collins
CD-1: 50/41 Democrat
CD-2: 50/38 Democrat

Gideon vs. Collins
CD-1: 51/44 Gideon
CD-2: 52/40 Gideon

Sweet vs. Collins
CD-1: 45/44 Collins
CD-2: 45/42 Sweet

Collins Opinion
CD-1: 47/51
CD-2: 44/55

[Blair]

visions of gideon amirte?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not only that Dems are gonna win ME2

[Upstater]

The Congressional district breakdown here is, uh, interesting:

Democrat vs. Susan Collins
CD-1: 50/41 Democrat
CD-2: 50/38 Democrat

Gideon vs. Collins
CD-1: 51/44 Gideon
CD-2: 52/40 Gideon

Sweet vs. Collins
CD-1: 45/44 Collins
CD-2: 45/42 Sweet

Collins Opinion
CD-1: 47/51
CD-2: 44/55

What's up with the numbers coming out of the 2nd CD?

[President Johnson]

The crosstabs are suspicious, to be honest. But this is definitely a competitive race that tilts in Gideon's favor. Would be absolutely great to get her elected, one of the best candidates this cycle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Race change: Concerning ——> Troubling.

[Yoda]

Collins made a massive mistake putting herself front and center defending Kavanaugh.

She also made an equally massive mistake openly admitting that she voted for the GOP Tax Scam bill b/c wealthy donors told her, "If you don't get this done (aka spend a trillion dollars we don't have giving billionaires  another tax break) don't bother ever asking us for campaign donations ever again." That quote has been stuck in my mind ever since. Just unbelievable corruption in broad daylight. She deserves to lose by 20 points solely b/c of that quote.

[Pericles]

Collins made a massive mistake putting herself front and center defending Kavanaugh.

She also made an equally massive mistake openly admitting that she voted for the GOP Tax Scam bill b/c wealthy donors told her, "If you don't get this done (aka spend a trillion dollars we don't have giving billionaires  another tax break) don't bother ever asking us for campaign donations ever again." That quote has been stuck in my mind ever since. Just unbelievable corruption in broad daylight. She deserves to lose by 20 points solely b/c of that quote.

Chris Collins said that, not Susan. Though that attitude very probably applied beyond just that one Representative.

[QAnonKelly]

You know, I think she’s learned her lesson about being a hypocritical coward.

[Progressive Pessimist]

visions of gideon amirte?

Hopefully on election night Collins will be crying in front of a fireplace.

[Yoda]

Collins made a massive mistake putting herself front and center defending Kavanaugh.

She also made an equally massive mistake openly admitting that she voted for the GOP Tax Scam bill b/c wealthy donors told her, "If you don't get this done (aka spend a trillion dollars we don't have giving billionaires  another tax break) don't bother ever asking us for campaign donations ever again." That quote has been stuck in my mind ever since. Just unbelievable corruption in broad daylight. She deserves to lose by 20 points solely b/c of that quote.

Chris Collins said that, not Susan. Though that attitude very probably applied beyond just that one Representative.

Good gravy, how'd I get that so mixed up in my head? Guess I need to lay off all the booze in quarantine.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Good news, so much for Rs saying that Collins is moderate enough to win reelection,  her vote to acquit Trump, just like Gardner backfired

She was absolutely not a impartial juror. Cocaine Mitch had her in his back pocket the whole time.

[Epaminondas]

Crosstabs have massive margins of error and they should frequently show weird results, even in a high-quality poll. If anything, unless a poll has a unusually massive sample size, you should be suspicious of polls where the crosstabs look squeaky clean across the board and show exactly what you expect.

Nate Silver-esque advice here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news, so much for Rs saying that Collins is moderate enough to win reelection,  her vote to acquit Trump, just like Gardner backfired

She was absolutely not a impartial juror. Cocaine Mitch had her in his back pocket the whole time.

When Olympia Snowe left and then Trump became President, she started voting like a typical Republican instead of an Indy, that got her reelected in 2008 and 2014

[Zaybay]

Pshhh, Collins can easily come back after reminding the voters of how much of a moderate she is.

Likely R, maybe even safe R.

Edit: /s

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pshhh, Collins can easily come back after reminding the voters of how much of a moderate she is.

Likely R, maybe even safe R.

The problem is that one of her favourite tactics to remind voters here is suggesting that she moderated the Republican caucus. The current president doesn't just ignore "He has learnt his lesson"; he deliberately mocks it, and will probably continue to sabotage Collins right up until election day.

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

New Poll: Maine Senator by Victory Research on 2020-05-18

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

New Poll: Maine Senator by Other Source on 2020-05-16

Summary: D: 49%, R: 39%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

The same D internal showed Bullock ahead of Daines by 7 pts and McConnell is running for reelection in and running ads on Cornyn, Daines and his behalf.

The Senate is lost since Ds have 51 seats already AZ, CO, ME, MT and NC leading in polls and the Dems wont even need a tiebreaker with GA runoff

Dems are more likely to win the regular Georgia election than the special election.  Unless you can make an argument that Republican voters will be extremely unenthusiastic following a loss in November (which carries over to January???)

I seriously doubt they could win a 50%+1 majority in the special election to win it outright with the viral pandemic, the GOP efforts to suppress the vote (even at times using it an excuse), and especially considering all the voter disenfranchisement crap the GOP pulled in 2018.  It would take something truly historic, which would flip both Georgia senate seats to the Democrats lol

Still, all it takes are 4 to win an overall majority.

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

Oh sh**t.  I accidentally uploaded it twice.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhh do I need to email Leip to delete it or can an admin do it?

My bad.

Nevermind.  The first one was "generic Dem."  Whew.  Thought I had made a mistake.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL @Collins approval being g lower in ME-2 then ME-1!
I still think Gideon is favored though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Collins is defeated, this is the tipping point race, then Ds take over