2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[sting in the rafters]

Ngl the splits are kinda ugly and don't know s--- ab Minny COIs but proportional map similar to the Sachs plaintiff plan

'16/20 PVI
MN-01:R+6.62
MN-02:D+4.47
MN-03:D+5.83
MN-04:D+15.13
MN-05:D+28.00
MN-06:R+14.80
MN-07:R+16.66
MN-08:R+9.05

Overall 2D/4/2R on paper though realistically it'd be 4D/4R most years, 5D/3R in a blue wave, or 3D/5R in a red wave. Trends prolly mean both Twin Cities suburban D-marginals and Hagedorn's in the Driftless Area become less competitive over time. Again slapped this one together real quick, very much defer to anyone who has an ear to the ground of what's going on in the Land O' Lakes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ngl the splits are kinda ugly and don't know s--- ab Minny COIs but proportional map similar to the Sachs plaintiff plan

'16/20 PVI
MN-01:R+6.62
MN-02:D+4.47
MN-03:D+5.83
MN-04:D+15.13
MN-05:D+28.00
MN-06:R+14.80
MN-07:R+16.66
MN-08:R+9.05

Overall 2D/4/2R on paper though realistically it'd be 4D/4R most years, 5D/3R in a blue wave, or 3D/5R in a red wave. Trends prolly mean both Twin Cities suburban D-marginals and Hagedorn's in the Driftless Area become less competitive over time. Again slapped this one together real quick, very much defer to anyone who has an ear to the ground of what's going on in the Land O' Lakes.

The increasing population concentration in MSP is quite evident here, looking at the districts in Dakota, Washington, Ramsey, and Hennipen.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Minnesota using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
62/100 on the Compactness Index
64/100 on County Splitting
19/100 on the Minority Representation index
28/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in Minnesota.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 6D to 2R

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 5D to 3R

2014 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 5R to 3D

2018 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 5R to 3D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 7D to 1R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota (Special): 5D to 3R

2018 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 6D to 2R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R


Minnesota doesn't really have minorities so there isn't much in the way of minority representation. There are two seats where minorities are over 30% of the Voting-Age population, one centered around Minneapolis and the other St. Paul.


Opinions?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Minnesota using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
62/100 on the Compactness Index
64/100 on County Splitting
19/100 on the Minority Representation index
28/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in Minnesota.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 6D to 2R

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 5D to 3R

2014 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 5R to 3D

2018 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 5R to 3D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 7D to 1R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota (Special): 5D to 3R

2018 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 6D to 2R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R


Minnesota doesn't really have minorities so there isn't much in the way of minority representation. There are two seats where minorities are over 30% of the Voting-Age population, one centered around Minneapolis and the other St. Paul.


Opinions?

Cleaner than a whistle, more compact than a New York apartment.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/lstephenjoycejr/status/1478467298474315784?s=20

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

[patzer]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

The Dem vote in Minnesota is more heavily packed than the Republican vote is, which makes it a bit harder.

That being said it’s not too hard to draw five districts that at least lean D in the Twin Cities area– issue is that while the court seems to be doing five seats in that urban area, it’s likely that one will lean R unless they do fairly significant boundary changes.

It’d ironically have been easier if Minnesota had lost a seat as it nearly did– in that case the natural map would have been simply dividing up Fischbach’s seat between the other three R seats, and thus resulting in a 4D-3R map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Nevada Dems drew 5 democratic CDs in a state with 4 CDs? That is quite impressive, yeah.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Well they drew 3 democratic districts in a state with 4CDs

Nevada Dems drew 5 democratic CDs in a state with 4 CDs? That is quite impressive, yeah.

[lfromnj]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Because the Minneapolis district is Biden +60 while MN07 is Trump +30.

I made a similar point in Colorado where the 2 most natural seats were Denver and El Paso. The former was Biden +60 and the latter was Trump +11

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Because the Minneapolis district is Biden +60 while MN07 is Trump +30.

I made a similar point in Colorado where the 2 most natural seats were Denver and El Paso. The former was Biden +60 and the latter was Trump +11

Ye there is no other remotely viable COI outside the Twin Cities which is D leaning; the Twin cities are extremely one-sided and high turnout which doenst help eitehr

[If my soul was made of stone]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

[Minnesota Mike]

The court panel drawing MN maps will drop their maps Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Tuesday is the deadline for the legislature to draw their maps and once that passes, the legislature has made no move to draw maps, it will be up to the 5 member court panel appointed last year.

[Schiff for Senate]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

The fact that Mankato/North Mankato, Rochester, and Bemidji are just sitting there without being used in any of these Dem seats while lots of Republican rural turf and Saint f-cking Cloud are is quite risible, too.

[Aurelius]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

[GALeftist]

Here's my attempt at a fair map, with the caveat that I did attempt to correct for the Democrats' now-atrocious Minnesota geography (within reason). Beyond that though I did attempt to prioritize county and city integrity. MN-02 shifts to a proper Twin Cities seat which clocks in at Biden+9. MN-01 in turn shifts east and slides all the way to Trump+5, which given recent performances would likely be competitive, at least in some years. MN-05, which contains all of Minneapolis, is about 63% white by VAP and MN-04, which contains all of Ramsey, is about 69% white. MN-03 is now wholly contained within Hennepin; at Biden+28, it should be pretty reliable, with even Ellison winning it by 13 in 2018. Not much else to note here, really. Curiously, the only district here Klobuchar lost in 2018 was MN-06, albeit by just 2 points.

[Schiff for Senate]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

The fact that Mankato/North Mankato, Rochester, and Bemidji are just sitting there without being used in any of these Dem seats while lots of Republican rural turf and Saint f-cking Cloud are is quite risible, too.

The extremely weird thing is that he stopped just at the Mankato area for a district that could've easily taken it in but instead tacked on a bunch of Republican territory to the west.

[lfromnj]

By the way is mid decade redistricting allowed in Minnesota?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way is mid decade redistricting allowed in Minnesota?

The state constitution specifically says the Legislature has the power to draw new districts only in the first session following each Census so apparently no.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's my attempt at a fair map, with the caveat that I did attempt to correct for the Democrats' now-atrocious Minnesota geography (within reason). Beyond that though I did attempt to prioritize county and city integrity. MN-02 shifts to a proper Twin Cities seat which clocks in at Biden+9. MN-01 in turn shifts east and slides all the way to Trump+5, which given recent performances would likely be competitive, at least in some years. MN-05, which contains all of Minneapolis, is about 63% white by VAP and MN-04, which contains all of Ramsey, is about 69% white. MN-03 is now wholly contained within Hennepin; at Biden+28, it should be pretty reliable, with even Ellison winning it by 13 in 2018. Not much else to note here, really. Curiously, the only district here Klobuchar lost in 2018 was MN-06, albeit by just 2 points.

I don’t like it that much. I think Dakota should entirely stay in a single county.

[BoiseBoy]

Court will unveil the new maps tomorrow (February 15) at 12 PM central.

Check here at that time: https://www.mncourts.gov/2021RedistrictingPanel

[Libertas Vel Mors]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.