2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Virginiá]

Curious - what is the outlook on the most likely state house map configurations? How will Democrats fair with a court-drawn map?

[Tintrlvr]

Here's my actually overall I think pretty reasonable 5D-3R gerrymander with the third R seat being I think quite winnable for a Democrat.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/47bca035-b26e-4f28-9f26-f1db506cfe07

Minimal municipal splits, relatively few county splits, didn't go crazy with splitting up the inner parts of the Twin Cities metro. I think having two suburbs+ districts south of the Twin Cities was the key to making this map work. Both of those seats were about Biden+9 in 2020 and voted (very narrowly) for Clinton in 2016 so should be reasonably solid for the Democrats. The northern district was Trump+9 in 2020 but also voted Klobuchar+15 and Smith+4 in 2018 so definitely winnable.

[Nyvin]

League of Women Voters submitted a map to the Special Redistricting Panel appointed in advance by MN State Supreme Court.

https://www.lwvmn.org/league-news/2021/9/3/wattson-plaintiffs-release-proposed-minnesota-congressional-district-plan



Looks like a pretty bland least change map mostly.  I don't like how Carver is split with three districts.

Craig would lose Northfield, giving it to MN-1.

[Frodo]

I still can't believe Minnesota got to keep Collin Peterson's old district...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

League of Women Voters submitted a map to the Special Redistricting Panel appointed in advance by MN State Supreme Court.

https://www.lwvmn.org/league-news/2021/9/3/wattson-plaintiffs-release-proposed-minnesota-congressional-district-plan



Looks like a pretty bland least change map mostly.  I don't like how Carver is split with three districts.

Craig would lose Northfield, giving it to MN-1.

It looks fine but for the life of me I cannot fathom why Chaska was put into the 2nd

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That 2nd district is not truly contiguous as there's no bridge connection from Chaska to it. You'd have to cross over into the 6th to take a bridge.

[I’m not Stu]

I think this is a fair map. It has less splitting and is more compact than the current map.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This map largely locks in 4-4, as in the current map, but Walz wins six of eight (the northern seat and the Mankato-Rochester seat in addition to the other four).



Anoka, Hennepin, Ramsey, and Washington are split.

[I’m not Stu]

How would Peterson have done against Stauber in MN-08 on my map? Fischbach would have won the open MN-07.

[I’m not Stu]

What's with MN-07 historically being so elongated on eight-district maps? I never liked its shape.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Minnesota had lost a congressional seat as it almost did, which party likely would have lost the seat?

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Minnesota had lost a congressional seat as it almost did, which party likely would have lost the seat?

A fair map would be 4D-3R, but most compact configurations ended up at 4R-3D from my playing around so hard to say.

[I’m not Stu]

If Minnesota had lost a congressional seat as it almost did, which party likely would have lost the seat?

I would think 3D-3R-1S.

My map by 2018 gubernatorial election results by district.

[Sol]

If Minnesota had lost a congressional seat as it almost did, which party likely would have lost the seat?

A fair map would be 4D-3R, but most compact configurations ended up at 4R-3D from my playing around so hard to say.

If reasonable configurations end up as 4R-3D, is 4D-3R really fair?

[I’m not Stu]

My map with 2018 regular Senate election results. Klobuchar narrowly lost MN-06 and MN-07 and did slightly better in MN-07 than MN-06.

[lfromnj]

If Minnesota had lost a congressional seat as it almost did, which party likely would have lost the seat?

A fair map would be 4D-3R, but most compact configurations ended up at 4R-3D from my playing around so hard to say.

Mostly 3-1-3? . Don't see how you get 4 Trump districts that easily. I mean its possible but most should have a 4th Biden district albeit narrowly.

[I’m not Stu]

I would imagine 3-3-1. The tossup district would be one that narrowly voted for Biden.

[politicallefty]

I tried to create a fair map that doesn't map excessive changes and I quite like how it turned out:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2a634a8-d0a9-44c5-b889-c93e39d8a818

Proportionality: 100/100 (partisan bias 48/100)
Competitiveness: 20/100
Compactness: 62/100
Splitting: 64/100

This map splits seven counties, including Hennepin (which must be split due to size).

MN-01: Trump+7.2, Trump+11.8, Walz+4.4
MN-02: Biden+9.4, Clinton+0.6, Walz+7.5
MN-03: Biden+21.0, Clinton+11.5, Walz+15.1
MN-04: Biden+35.5, Clinton+29.5, Walz+34.3
MN-05: Biden+60.9, Clinton+52.9, Walz+57.0
MN-06: Trump+19.5, Trump+25.4, Johnson+15.2
MN-07: Trump+31.3, Trump+32.2, Johnson+18.3
MN-08: Trump+14.0, Trump+15.3, Johnson+1.6

And unlike the current map where Klobuchar somehow won all eight districts, this map pushes MN-06 and MN-07 out of even her reach (losing by 0.1% and 1.2%, respectively). This map has 3 safe D districts in the MSP metro and 3 safe R districts in exurban MSP and outstate. This MN-02 is probably likely D and MN-01 is probably lean R, both of which move a couple points to the left on account of the districts being pulled into the MSP metro on account of population growth versus rural population loss. I think it's probably too soon to radically change the districts, particularly those that want to have MN-08 touch North Dakota.


Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census, Democrats will probably want to extend MN-02 down into Rochester. The outstate districts will be far too Republican assuming current trends continue. The current MN-07 will be obliterated and MN-08, MN-06, and MN-01 will all move west to the state border with the Dakotas.

[Devils30]

Dems would be idiots not to ask the courts for a new Biden seat to reflect the state's more accurate 5-3 split.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census,

It won't. We're projected to overtake Wisconsin by then.

[politicallefty]

Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census,

It won't. We're projected to overtake Wisconsin by then.

That'd be interesting and I hope you're right. But what's to say both MN and WI won't each lose a seat?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census,

It won't. We're projected to overtake Wisconsin by then.

That'd be interesting and I hope you're right. But what's to say both MN and WI won't each lose a seat?

The projections has us keeping one and them losing one.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a slight change to my map. MN-05 is now entirely in Hennepin County.

[patzer]

This is the sort of 5-3 map I think would be most "reasonable", especially for a court-ordered map for instance.



All incumbents' homes are kept in their districts, but Tom Emmer's district went from Trump +2 in 2016 to Biden +6 in 2020 so would be a struggle for him to hang onto. All other incumbents should be reasonably safe albeit the 8th could be competitive with a good Dem candidate.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is the sort of 5-3 map I think would be most "reasonable", especially for a court-ordered map for instance.

All incumbents' homes are kept in their districts, but Tom Emmer's district went from Trump +2 in 2016 to Biden +6 in 2020 so would be a struggle for him to hang onto. All other incumbents should be reasonably safe albeit the 8th could be competitive with a good Dem candidate.

A Court will not make changes that radical. Also you have Hagadorn and Craig in the same district. And it's tough to tell from a map with no county lines but you may also have Emmer and Phillips in the same district.