Why are downtown Austin precincts not very D?
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March 28, 2024, 08:39:25 AM
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  Why are downtown Austin precincts not very D?
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Author Topic: Why are downtown Austin precincts not very D?  (Read 728 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: March 03, 2024, 08:09:39 PM »

Austin is by far the most liberal part of Texas, with many heavily white precincts giving Biden over 70 or even 80% of the vote.

Yet the small collections of precincts that make up downtown Austin vote notably less D than their surroundings, many giving Trump ~30% of the vote and voting outright for Rs in the past decade. These days the downtown precincts are obviously safe D, but there's a huge difference between D + 40 and the D + 80 I would expect.

You'd think the dense downtown of such a liberal city would be like D+80 or something as we see in downtown Philadelphia, Atlanta, or New York City. But nope.

Why is this? Does it have to something with the state capital being there? Are the people who self-sort into the immediate downtown more Conservative than their suburban peers somehow?
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2024, 08:12:47 PM »

Probably cause they’re super expensive and therefore have higher amounts of oil money types
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2024, 08:15:12 PM »

Isn't this kind of similar to Charlotte?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2024, 08:17:00 PM »


To some extent, but in Charlotte it could just be because the downtown precincts are whiter than the more heavily black precincts that surround them. In Austin, you have the downtown precincts (which are fairly white) voting well to the right of mostly white inner-ring suburban precincts.
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2024, 08:28:53 PM »


To some extent, but in Charlotte it could just be because the downtown precincts are whiter than the more heavily black precincts that surround them. In Austin, you have the downtown precincts (which are fairly white) voting well to the right of mostly white inner-ring suburban precincts.
Ah. You're probably right that there's something rather unusual or atypical here. What sets Austin apart might be just how heavily White it is compared to other Sunbelt Southern cities, which makes such differences in voting patterns just more jarring.
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2024, 10:24:45 PM »

(Breaking my March posting hiatus for the sake of Leipism)

It's not even all of Downtown Austin, it's just 2 precincts surrounding the Austin Convention Center on the west side of I-35 and the north bank of the Colorado River. (I'm guessing the third 70-30ish Biden precinct with very few voters contains the State Capitol). I don't think it's really a racial thing because the similarly White precincts across the Colorado are also >80% Biden like the surrounding precincts on/past the UT Austin campus and the precincts just on the other side of I-35.

Austin proper historically had a racially divide along I-35, with the hillier west side (including downtown) being more overwhelmingly Non-Hispanic White and the flatter east side being more Black and Latino. Both of the places my family lived in the early 2000s were west of I-35 and outside of the 360-71-US 183 loop but still within city limits.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2024, 10:38:17 PM »

It looks like the core of downtown Austin has doubled in population between 2010 and 2020, going from 5000ish people to 10000ish people. If it's anything like the downtowns of other big Southern cities, it probably didn't have too many people before the present-day boom and a good chunk of those new residents are condo-dwellers paying a premium to live downtown.

Austin has a lot of interesting and culturally rich neighborhoods, so choosing to live downtown means you're probably more focused on work instead of experiencing the city's culture. People of that class and with those priorities voting to the right of the rest of the city makes sense imo.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2024, 02:12:34 AM »

It looks like the core of downtown Austin has doubled in population between 2010 and 2020, going from 5000ish people to 10000ish people. If it's anything like the downtowns of other big Southern cities, it probably didn't have too many people before the present-day boom and a good chunk of those new residents are condo-dwellers paying a premium to live downtown.

Austin has a lot of interesting and culturally rich neighborhoods, so choosing to live downtown means you're probably more focused on work instead of experiencing the city's culture. People of that class and with those priorities voting to the right of the rest of the city makes sense imo.

Interesting point, but counterpoint: the downtown is a neighborhood in itself and generally those who are willing to give up a single family home with backyard for living in a dense walkable urban neighborhood skew heavily D.
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Sol
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2024, 02:55:42 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2024, 03:02:29 AM by Sol »

It looks like the core of downtown Austin has doubled in population between 2010 and 2020, going from 5000ish people to 10000ish people. If it's anything like the downtowns of other big Southern cities, it probably didn't have too many people before the present-day boom and a good chunk of those new residents are condo-dwellers paying a premium to live downtown.

Austin has a lot of interesting and culturally rich neighborhoods, so choosing to live downtown means you're probably more focused on work instead of experiencing the city's culture. People of that class and with those priorities voting to the right of the rest of the city makes sense imo.

Interesting point, but counterpoint: the downtown is a neighborhood in itself and generally those who are willing to give up a single family home with backyard for living in a dense walkable urban neighborhood skew heavily D.

There are a lot of people who prioritize walkability and density, but very few where that's the only factor. People who prioritize those factors are generally also going to be interested in culture, the arts, etc. and I suspect other areas of the city are going to be a better fit for that, especially when they're probably much cheaper too. Austin isn't the sort of place where you can easily get away with living without a car anyway; the people in downtown probably have parking garages in their buildings.

It's an imperfect analogy, but to use a New York parallel it's the same reason why people in Midtown or the Financial District are to the right of hipsters in gentrifying Brooklyn, except some of them vote Republican because Texas.

I should also caveat this with the fact that I don't know much about the built environment in Austin and am somewhat extrapolating based on places I know better -- so this could easily be wrong.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2024, 03:54:21 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2024, 04:05:54 PM by Tintrlvr »

Just one added factor that seems to be being ignored here is that Austin is the state capital of a still solidly Republican state, so a significant number of white Republicans from elsewhere in the state who otherwise would probably not prefer to live in Austin are going to live right next to the capitol building for work.
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2024, 04:09:02 PM »

Just one added factor that seems to be being ignored here is that Austin is the state capital of a still solidly Republican state, so a significant number of white Republicans from elsewhere in the state who otherwise would probably not prefer to live in Austin are going to live right next to the capitol building for work.
There might be some truth to that but then what about the fact that the precinct right next to the Capitol building in Bismarck, North Dakota is by far the most D precinct in Bismarck and the only one where Trump got under 50% in, and the only such precinct anywhere in North Dakota more than 10 miles from the Red River that isn't on a Reservation?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2024, 04:15:45 PM »

Just one added factor that seems to be being ignored here is that Austin is the state capital of a still solidly Republican state, so a significant number of white Republicans from elsewhere in the state who otherwise would probably not prefer to live in Austin are going to live right next to the capitol building for work.
There might be some truth to that but then what about the fact that the precinct right next to the Capitol building in Bismarck, North Dakota is by far the most D precinct in Bismarck and the only one where Trump got under 50% in, and the only such precinct anywhere in North Dakota more than 10 miles from the Red River that isn't on a Reservation?

Bismarck and Austin, and North Dakota and Texas, are just very obviously not comparable cities and states in scale.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2024, 04:21:17 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2024, 12:43:51 PM by Del Tachi »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative neighborhoods. 

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2024, 05:49:44 PM »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative settings. 

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!

Yes, but tbf Houston generally lacks liberal whites so the CBD not being that blue makes sense in the context of Houston

How downtown Austin votes isn't necessarily weird in itself, but it's weird in the context of Austin which is such a liberal city.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2024, 05:53:57 PM »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative settings. 

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!

Yes, but tbf Houston generally lacks liberal whites so the CBD not being that blue makes sense in the context of Houston

How downtown Austin votes isn't necessarily weird in itself, but it's weird in the context of Austin which is such a liberal city.

But the CBD of Austin is more liberal in the context of similar cities. Downtown Austin is Biden +40, Downtown Nashville/Houston is "only" Biden +20!
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2024, 12:55:08 PM »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative neighborhoods.  

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!

Also the wealthy condo-dwellers in downtown Houston mostly still today work in the oil and gas industry. Nashville as the state capital is going to have a similar effect to Austin where Republican-oriented lobbyists and other workers related to the fact that the Republican-dominated state government is based there will live downtown near the capitol building.

Which is roughly the same point I was making earlier.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2024, 01:09:45 PM »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative neighborhoods.  

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!

Also the wealthy condo-dwellers in downtown Houston mostly still today work in the oil and gas industry. Nashville as the state capital is going to have a similar effect to Austin where Republican-oriented lobbyists and other workers related to the fact that the Republican-dominated state government is based there will live downtown near the capitol building.

Which is roughly the same point I was making earlier.

Generally, in a Southern metro with no transit to speak of, wealthier than average people will only consider living downtown if they have an 80 hour a week fully in-person job in a downtown office.  People who have such jobs will obviously skew right compared to their other demographic indicators. 
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2024, 12:56:00 AM »

there's a lot of weirdo Alex Jones types in Austin.
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Sol
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2024, 10:00:02 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2024, 11:37:09 PM by Sol »

The CBDs of many Sun Belt cities are more GOP-voting than their other urban neighborhoods.  A lot of it is explained by racial demographics, but it's also the case that suits-in-a-glass-penthouse will skew more conservative than the kombucha-drinking gentrifiers who prefer more creative neighborhoods.  

Austin isn't even the best place to see this.  The main downtown precincts in Houston and Nashville voted for Romney!

Also the wealthy condo-dwellers in downtown Houston mostly still today work in the oil and gas industry. Nashville as the state capital is going to have a similar effect to Austin where Republican-oriented lobbyists and other workers related to the fact that the Republican-dominated state government is based there will live downtown near the capitol building.

Which is roughly the same point I was making earlier.

I don't know if that quite holds up though. You don't get a similar effect in North Carolina (where the state capitol is in one of the more Democratic parts of the city, even before recent shifts) or Georgia (where granted Atlanta is a much larger city). Meanwhile, there are similar patterns to this in Charlotte (where Republicans used to win in neighborhoods quite close to downtown).

State government employees are going to vary a lot, and most will not be partisan Republicans. Many also can't afford to live in expensive apartment buildings downtown and will live elsewhere. IMO this dynamic is a result of social class+educated white voters in the south being more conservative than elsewhere.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2024, 03:06:22 AM »

Residents annoyed by homelessness?
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