2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Minnesota Mike]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

I don't know the numbers but Duluth does contain a branch of the University of Minnesota system. UMD has I believe around 10,000 students.

[Torie]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

I don't know the numbers but Duluth does contain a branch of the University of Minnesota system. UMD has I believe around 10,000 students.

Duluth would be a hip post industrial artist and outdoors person haven already if the climate were better. Give it another 20 years, and it will be the next Traverse City, as a summer haven to frolic. Duluth is one place off the beaten path I want to visit before I sleep.

[ilikeverin]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

I don't know the numbers but Duluth does contain a branch of the University of Minnesota system. UMD has I believe around 10,000 students.

Duluth would be a hip post industrial artist and outdoors person haven already if the climate were better. Give it another 20 years, and it will be the next Traverse City, as a summer haven to frolic. Duluth is one place off the beaten path I want to visit before I sleep.

You know, there's definitely something to what you're saying. Duluth has abundant natural advantages other than the brutal winters, and plenty of charm. There's a local effort to remove some of the urban highway that cuts the city off from its shoreline... if that succeeds, it could realize catalyze something exciting for the city.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

[lfromnj]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

True It just feels weird that Biden still did better than other Democrat recently when he was among the worst performing in the iron range region as a whole.

By the way whens the last time a Republican won the 7 county definition of the iron range before 2020? Pete Stauber managed to win it perhaps a bit due to 3rd party vote although he won majorities in Lake/Carlton county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

True It just feels weird that Biden still did better than other Democrat recently when he was among the worst performing in the iron range region as a whole.

By the way whens the last time a Republican won the 7 county definition of the iron range before 2020? Pete Stauber managed to win it perhaps a bit due to 3rd party vote although he won majorities in Lake/Carlton county.

The last confirmed time is Hoover in 1928.

[lfromnj]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

True It just feels weird that Biden still did better than other Democrat recently when he was among the worst performing in the iron range region as a whole.

By the way whens the last time a Republican won the 7 county definition of the iron range before 2020? Pete Stauber managed to win it perhaps a bit due to 3rd party vote although he won majorities in Lake/Carlton county.

The last confirmed time is Hoover in 1928.

I meant for any race at all. 1950 mn gubernatorial seems to be the last time I can see without going into sos results.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

True It just feels weird that Biden still did better than other Democrat recently when he was among the worst performing in the iron range region as a whole.

By the way whens the last time a Republican won the 7 county definition of the iron range before 2020? Pete Stauber managed to win it perhaps a bit due to 3rd party vote although he won majorities in Lake/Carlton county.

The last confirmed time is Hoover in 1928.

I meant for any race at all. 1950 mn gubernatorial seems to be the last time I can see without going into sos results.

Yeah that's just the last time I can confirm. Post-1950 maybe if an incumbent Republican for a row office ran unopposed or basically unopposed. But since 1959 Minnesota has only once elected a Republican Attorney General and has had only two Republican Secretaries of State, one of whom only won one term and the other who lost for a third term and never won by a lot.

So that basically leaves just two candidates who served as State Auditor: Arne Carlson and Stafford King who was until 1969. If Carlson couldn't in his landslide 1994 Governor re-election he probably didn't....so King is the best candidate but pulling up his results would be the best thing to look at.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 4D-3R-1S map with five districts Biden won.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f8a2b2f7-10ab-4b3c-ad15-9cfbb74e83ab

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1524889536949637135

some tiny census block changes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So the MN legislature did all this just to move a grand total of 14 people!? Also in the CD level literally no one changed CDs

[Devils30]

Considering what's coming in NC, it's time to do this in Minnesota!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e27df93b-38b9-4dfd-b1fa-217a2530a01e

I also think if they made 1 and 8 Biden +6 or so, the courts would be much less likely to strike it down and it would give Dems two additional opportunities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A MN gerrymander would be truly awful because you have to pizza MSP; there is not pocket of Dem votes anywhere else in the state enough to sustain a D-leaning CD. I think if and HUGE IF Democrats decide to gerrymander MN, it'd fall below the level of even Illinois.

Gerrymandering is inexcusable, but to gerrymander NC, really the only thing truly sinful one has to do is crack Greensboro like 2 or 3 ways. The D sinks sort of fall "naturally" and each seat can still represent a clear community.

[Nyvin]

I don't think it's settled law, but doesn't seem like congressional redistricting mid-decade is allowed in MN.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems should go ahead and pass independent redistricting here while they have a rare trifecta.  Don’t wanna risk Republicans getting a trifecta after 2030 in time for redistricting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My reading of the Minnesota Constitution indicates that it does not allow for mid-decade redistricting.

Dems should go ahead and pass independent redistricting here while they have a rare trifecta.  Don’t wanna risk Republicans getting a trifecta after 2030 in time for redistricting.

I'm going to make a bold prediction that the DFL House holds all decade. Even the trends worshipping people would probably have to admit that if they look at the actual breakdown, there's far more marginal D-trending R-held seats than D-held R-trending ones. The GOP already got almost all of the low-hanging fruit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My reading of the Minnesota Constitution indicates that it does not allow for mid-decade redistricting.

Dems should go ahead and pass independent redistricting here while they have a rare trifecta.  Don’t wanna risk Republicans getting a trifecta after 2030 in time for redistricting.

I'm going to make a bold prediction that the DFL House holds all decade. Even the trends worshipping people would probably have to admit that if they look at the actual breakdown, there's far more marginal D-trending R-held seats than D-held R-trending ones. The GOP already got almost all of the low-hanging fruit.

Dems are very concentrated in MSP which alone can get them half the seats + Rochester and Duluth IF and big if they can secure down a lot of these narrowly Biden suburban seats for the rest of the decade. The demographic shifts seem quite favorable given the relatively educated nature of MSP, but it's hard to say.

Honestly, there are very few swing seats in the MN legistlature just because most rural areas are universally R now and there's a very sharp political cutoff with the suburbs.

[Devils30]

6-2 was so last week, why go 6-2 or 4-4 when you can do 7-1! McCarthy would get Omar out of Congress this way! This one is also great at staying 7-1 in 2016 and all downballot races.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::76816e97-5581-4de9-85c0-6167eb6c288c

[Minnesota Mike]

My reading of the Minnesota Constitution indicates that it does not allow for mid-decade redistricting.

I would have to search for it but IIRC the Minnesota Legislature has made very small changes to legislative lines mid decade. Things like moving a boundary that ran through the center of an apartment building. I believe it is theoretically possible to do a mid decade redistricting.

That having been said it will never happen. The Dem margins in the legislature are too small to do something that controversial. For example Ilhan Omar's allies in the legislature would never allow Minneapolis to be split. Besides mid decade redistricting is just not a Minnesotan thing to do.

[SInNYC]

Regarding mid-decade redistricting, be careful what you wish for, as MN voters have a history of not liking sleazy stuff. The DFL did something seedy before 1978, with governor Anderson resigning so that he could be appointed senator by the new governor Perpich, his lieutenant governor. Both Perpich and Anderson lost the next election in 1978 by big margins, and MN had Republicans for governor and both senators for the first time of the modern era.

[ilikeverin]

Regarding mid-decade redistricting, be careful what you wish for, as MN voters have a history of not liking sleazy stuff. The DFL did something seedy before 1978, with governor Anderson resigning so that he could be appointed senator by the new governor Perpich, his lieutenant governor. Both Perpich and Anderson lost the next election in 1978 by big margins, and MN had Republicans for governor and both senators for the first time of the modern era.

Yeah, of all states, Minnesota is a bad fit for these tactics. Minnesotans take good government seriously! And that's especially true in the case when the DFL can clearly win fair and square.

[Mr.Phips]

Regarding mid-decade redistricting, be careful what you wish for, as MN voters have a history of not liking sleazy stuff. The DFL did something seedy before 1978, with governor Anderson resigning so that he could be appointed senator by the new governor Perpich, his lieutenant governor. Both Perpich and Anderson lost the next election in 1978 by big margins, and MN had Republicans for governor and both senators for the first time of the modern era.

Yeah, of all states, Minnesota is a bad fit for these tactics. Minnesotans take good government seriously! And that's especially true in the case when the DFL can clearly win fair and square.

Wasn’t Wisconsin similar in this way?  Republicans paid no price there for their brutal gerrymander of the state legislature.

[Devils30]

The current MN map is GOP biased, there is no reason they should have 4 Trump +9 or better seats in a lean Dem state.

One way Dems could do it is make MN-1,8 Biden +6-7 seats or so that are not egregious but nonetheless will give the party a much better shot at additional seats in a 2022 type year. An 8th that extends south into Woodbury, Maplewood and maybe a small section of St. Paul makes too much sense.

Does Omar have any true allies in the state Senate? Dems would be foolish not to do anything. Of course I would do this as a response to the North Carolina GOP, not on January 10th.

[Minnesota Mike]

The current MN map is GOP biased, there is no reason they should have 4 Trump +9 or better seats in a lean Dem state.

One way Dems could do it is make MN-1,8 Biden +6-7 seats or so that are not egregious but nonetheless will give the party a much better shot at additional seats in a 2022 type year. An 8th that extends south into Woodbury, Maplewood and maybe a small section of St. Paul makes too much sense.

Does Omar have any true allies in the state Senate? Dems would be foolish not to do anything. Of course I would do this as a response to the North Carolina GOP, not on January 10th.

Yes she does and it only takes one. Beyond just ally of Omar or not the Minneapolis and St Paul delegations have long opposed cracking their cities. It's just not going to happen.

[lfromnj]

Yeah Omar unlike the rest of the squad was part of the establishment.