COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SquireForYou/status/1265553065056362497

Do we know what time of year the pneumonia deaths were? If those deaths were before March, would it mean coronavirus was already widespread in Florida very early in the year?

Probably.
We won’t know until we really have a reliable and well-distributed antibody test, but this definitely sticks out. While we did have a bad(ish) flu season this year as well, we also had bad flu seasons since 2013.
I would bet money on Florida having been hit earlier than previously thought. They are a major tourist hub and have large metropolitan areas.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21:

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22:

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

5/23:

• Cases: 1,666,828 (+21,734 | Δ Change: ↓10.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 98,683 (+1,036 | Δ Change: ↓19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

5/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25:

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

5/26 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,725,141 (+18,917 | Δ Change: ↓4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 100,579 (+774 | Δ Change: ↑53.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

5/27 (Today):

• Cases: 1,745,803 (+20,662 | Δ Change: ↑9.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 102,107 (+1,528 | Δ Change: ↑97.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)

[emailking]

Looks like a small decrease in cases from a week ago but a bump in deaths which sucks. Although I guess it could still be some catchup from the long weekend when counts were way down.

[Calthrina950]

No it's called people who want to save lives vs people who care more about going to a football game then protecting people around them!

When did I say anything about football games? I could care less about the football games.

We have to have ideas that are realistic and workable.

I would also add that people aren't protesting against or criticizing the lockdown orders because they "care about football games" or "want to get a haircut." Many people's livelihoods are on the line if the economy is not reopened in due order, and this is to say nothing of the demonstrated psychological impacts which this is having for many. Essential surgeries have been delayed; the education of millions of children has been negatively affected; and unemployment rates have climbed to unprecedented levels. Bringing about the end of lockdown orders will alleviate the stresses that many are dealing with right now.

I’m sure a minority of the protestors are concerned about their jobs, but more of them seem to protesting out of some rather twisted idea of freedom/to own the media/libs/insert-group-here.

The economic damage of the lockdowns are real, but if that is truly what these people were concerned about, they would be more than happy to promote mask-wearing (so we don’t have to keep closed down) and to social distance so that they can get back to work without fear of a resurgence (and a potential second lockdown)
It’s common sense and has the added benefit of not killing granny.

Maybe I am expecting too much when I expect the working American to think rationally, but I just don’t think the protestors are really the ones who are suffering the most economically. It seems more like a middle finger to the “evil media/elites” than anything.

I don't think the protesters represent the majority of people on either side of the debate. Most of those who are opposed, or have become opposed, to the lockdown orders seem to be following the law, continuing with their jobs, and generally keeping themselves quiet in public, but making their viewpoints plain to their personal acquaintances (or family), or in an online context, where they have some anonymity. And of course, people are expressing their viewpoints through other ways-such as pursuing "normal" activities as best as they can. And I certainly don't condone much of what these protesters have done (i.e. hanging politicians in effigy, spreading baseless conspiracy theories about Bill Gates and Dr. Fauci, making death threats against certain public figures). But there is a legitimate basis to the anti-lockdown argument which shouldn't be ignored.

[Grassroots]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

[It’s so Joever]

My estimate is somewhere in between.
I think we will have found a compelling vaccine candidate by late June, it will be proven effective sometime by September, and companies already will have produced it even before, allowing healthcare workers to have access to it by November.
Other high-risk groups probably will get it by January, with the general populace receiving it throughout Spring next year.

[Grassroots]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

Everything has gone right so far pretty much.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I mean, what the actual f**k

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1264978727416578048

This reinforces every known stereotype about NASCAR fans.

Those beer guts are almost as bad as the lack of masks.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

Everything has gone right so far pretty much.

Has it?  I’m still optimistic, but my impressions are that the Oxford vaccine hasn’t proven to actually suppress infection in monkeys, and the Moderna vaccine is showing a lot of troubling side effects.  And the most important thing we could do to speed things along (human challenge trials) we still aren’t doing and seem to have no plans to do.

[Grassroots]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

Everything has gone right so far pretty much.

Has it?  I’m still optimistic, but my impressions are that the Oxford vaccine hasn’t proven to actually suppress infection in monkeys, and the Moderna vaccine is showing a lot of troubling side effects.  And the most important thing we could do to speed things along (human challenge trials) we still aren’t doing and seem to have no plans to do.

I've heard nothing about that with the oxford vaccine except that it did actually protect monkeys from the infection. With the moderna vaccine, a man who received a x10 load of the vaccine for research purposes was sick for a day.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/maggiemfox/status/1265597868724936704?s=20

The tweet is misleading.

What the CDC says that if a test produces 5% false positives, and is used in a population with 5% past-infection rate, then there is about a 50% chance that a positive test result will not actually indicate any immunity.

In a population with 50% past-infection rate, then there is about a 95% chance that a positive test will be accurate.

The CDC also outlines various strategies for improving testing results.

Bottom line: Don't depend on twitter for your medical advice. You should instead rely on trusted sources like Atlas.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is messed up:

https://twitter.com/BrianSimsPA/status/1265787518974377991?s=20

Remember when he said voter ID would help Romney win? LOL

[Sir Mohamed]

The question about vaccine is not just "when there is one", but when there is done ready for mass production and use? Where are the production capabilities we need? And who and how pays for that? We must now make sure, everyone in this country, or basically the whole world, gets vaccine regardless of economic status.

Each country should be prepare for this as we speak and not wait until a vaccine is actually there. Because once this happened and it's approved for mass use, each country with the capabilities will produce for their own people they start selling and shipping to others. It would be great to act in concert with our allies to ensure everything works out fine, but as long as Trump is prez, this isn't happening. I'm not even seeing a strategy of his admin for mass production in the US after vaccine is available.

It's not like the problem will be solved the day vaccine is found and approved. Even if this is the case by Christmas (I think spring 2021 is more realistic), it takes more months for mass use. Remember we need billions around the world.

[emailking]

Fauci said he's cautiously optimistic for the end of this year or early next year. So I'll go with that. Reason for optimism we may have it this year, but could also go later.

I'm also not sure whether he just meant that it could exist then or if that's when it would be distributed.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Fauci said he's cautiously optimistic for the end of this year or early next year. So I'll go with that. Reason for optimism we may have it this year, but could also go later.

I'm also not sure whether he just meant that it could exist then or if that's when it would be distributed.

Unless things have changed, Bill Gates' foundation has been prepping the seven most likely vaccine candidates for mass production, so that if/when one of them proves out, it can go immediately into mass production without the time lag that would normally require.

Bill Gates, Backer of Inovio And Six Others, Says Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Mass Produced Within A Year

"If everything went perfectly, we'd be in scale manufacturing within a year," Gates told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "It could be as long as two years."

The technology entrepreneur said he agrees with White House Coronavirus Task Force lead member Anthony Fauci's timeline of 12 to 18 months for mass-producing a vaccine.

"It's very hard to compress these timeframes," he added, saying that the phase three trials, which determine if the drug has harmful side effects, will take time.

(I don't think depending on altruistic billionaires is a good long-term way for society to function, but Gates is definitely doing some good here.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/USDOL/status/1265983743979933698

Per Bloomberg:

Continuing claims, which tally Americans claiming unemployment benefits in state programs, fell to 21.1 million for the week ended May 16, the first decline during the pandemic.

[MasterJedi]

Local FB conservative are out in force, 100k people have not died, it's 1k at most and it's a hoax. Sad.

[Crumpets]

Local FB conservative are out in force, 100k people have not died, it's 1k at most and it's a hoax. Sad.

"""""Local"""""

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/maggiemfox/status/1265597868724936704?s=20

The tweet is misleading.

What the CDC says that if a test produces 5% false positives, and is used in a population with 5% past-infection rate, then there is about a 50% chance that a positive test result will not actually indicate any immunity.

In a population with 50% past-infection rate, then there is about a 95% chance that a positive test will be accurate.

The CDC also outlines various strategies for improving testing results.

Bottom line: Don't depend on twitter for your medical advice. You should instead rely on trusted sources like Atlas.

Yeah, the CNN article does no better in explaining the concept the CDC is trying to get across in its new guidance.  The problem isn't caused by the tests.  If you have a test that throws a false positive 5% of the time and only 5% of the population truly has antibodies, then the "false hits" could potentially be overstating the immunity rate on an order of magnitude.  The smaller the true immune population is, the less (statistically) identifiable it becomes.  Of course, serological testing in NYC and Boston have estimated positive rates of >10% (not exactly very small) and the IgG antibody test has sensitivity and specificity rates of >99%.

Moreover, the basic nature of human immune response (it takes 1-3 weeks for antibodies to develop in a recovered person) necessarily means that all results from sero testing are conservative estimates.  False negatives are way more prevalent than false positives, regardless of the type of test employed.

[MasterJedi]

Local FB conservative are out in force, 100k people have not died, it's 1k at most and it's a hoax. Sad.

"""""Local"""""

Most of them appeared legit, actual pictures, profiles, etc. Not the obvious ones if anything.

[CultureKing]

Fauci said he's cautiously optimistic for the end of this year or early next year. So I'll go with that. Reason for optimism we may have it this year, but could also go later.

I'm also not sure whether he just meant that it could exist then or if that's when it would be distributed.

Unless things have changed, Bill Gates' foundation has been prepping the seven most likely vaccine candidates for mass production, so that if/when one of them proves out, it can go immediately into mass production without the time lag that would normally require.

Bill Gates, Backer of Inovio And Six Others, Says Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Mass Produced Within A Year

"If everything went perfectly, we'd be in scale manufacturing within a year," Gates told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "It could be as long as two years."

The technology entrepreneur said he agrees with White House Coronavirus Task Force lead member Anthony Fauci's timeline of 12 to 18 months for mass-producing a vaccine.

"It's very hard to compress these timeframes," he added, saying that the phase three trials, which determine if the drug has harmful side effects, will take time.

(I don't think depending on altruistic billionaires is a good long-term way for society to function, but Gates is definitely doing some good here.)

Yeah, Gates has shown true leadership through this crisis. Dude deserves a Nobel for filling in the gap left by a rudderless US federal government/international community.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437

A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437

A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

Well of course no country on earth is prepared for a pandemic if you ask government epidemiologists and big pharma lobbyists.  How else would they get their $$$? 

This is like when the American Academy of Civil Engineers every year gives the vast majority of states a bad grade on road infrastructure.  Serious risk-seeking and adverse incentives are at play.   

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437

A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

Well of course no country on earth is prepared for a pandemic if you ask government epidemiologists and big pharma lobbyists.  How else would they get their $$$? 

This is like when the American Academy of Civil Engineers every year gives the vast majority of states a bad grade on road infrastructure.  Serious risk-seeking and adverse incentives are at play.   

Government epidemiologists aren't paid to schill for big pharma.