COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

We’ve been at the 20k new case and 1k death plateau for a good while now

Don’t worry, the protests will change that in about ten days.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yesterday, the U.S. had the lowest positivity rate since March 4. It was the lowest since at least March 5 (probably earlier) using the 7-day rolling average.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Republicans and some Democrats are now against and second stimulus check. (I don’t agree with this).

Although those receiving SS (I hope that includes those on disability) may still receive some sort of financial help.

[Calthrina950]

Yesterday, the U.S. had the lowest positivity rate since March 4. It was the lowest since at least March 5 (probably earlier) using the 7-day rolling average.

As you probably know, the authorities and experts have been expressing their concerns that there will be a resurgence in coronavirus cases due to the protests and riots we have been seeing. I'm not sure how much of an impact this will have on the maintenance of social distancing regulations.

[Grassroots]

Yesterday, the U.S. had the lowest positivity rate since March 4. It was the lowest since at least March 5 (probably earlier) using the 7-day rolling average.

As you probably know, the authorities and experts have been expressing their concerns that there will be a resurgence in coronavirus cases due to the protests and riots we have been seeing. I'm not sure how much of an impact this will have on the maintenance of social distancing regulations.

The case bumps from events (such as elections) have always been lower than predicted. I wouldn't sweat over it.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>

5/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25:

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

5/26:

• Cases: 1,725,141 (+18,917 | Δ Change: ↓4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 100,579 (+774 | Δ Change: ↑53.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

5/27:

• Cases: 1,745,803 (+20,662 | Δ Change: ↑9.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 102,107 (+1,528 | Δ Change: ↑97.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)

5/28:

• Cases: 1,768,461 (+22,658 | Δ Change: ↑9.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 103,330 (+1,223 | Δ Change: ↓19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)

5/29:

• Cases: 1,793,530 (+25,069 | Δ Change: ↑10.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 104,542 (+1,212 | Δ Change: ↓0.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/30:

• Cases: 1,816,820 (+23,290 | Δ Change: ↓7.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 105,557 (+1,015 | Δ Change: ↓16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4 (Today):

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1268666934364700674

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1268666934364700674

WTF that came out of nowhere

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

Not totally surprising. Down here in Florida, almost all retail is open again. My sister is still furloughed from her restaurant though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The jobs report probably ends any likelihood of another stimulus bill.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

[NHI]

The jobs report probably ends any likelihood of another stimulus bill.

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable.  

[emailking]

Even 16% is well below what economists were predicting. This situation is too unprecedented. I'm all for making careful, evidence based predictions. But the accuracy may be like throwing darts at this point. Maybe it will be 8% or maybe it will be higher than it is now. Who knows. My guess would be something like 10.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

[NHI]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

Tell that to the folks who are getting their jobs back.  It's a true recovery for hundreds of thousands of American families, and the associated rise in payrolls will boost spending in other parts of the economy too.   

These better-than-expected numbers indicate a stronger recovery than expected.  To think Trump will not benefit from beating the expectations curve is the epitome of partisan hacking.   

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

Tell that to the folks who are getting their jobs back.  It's a true recovery for hundreds of thousands of American families, and the associated rise in payrolls will boost spending in other parts of the economy too.   

These better-than-expected numbers indicate a stronger recovery than expected.  To think Trump will not benefit from beating the expectations curve is the epitome of partisan hacking.   

To think a potentially faster recovery absolves Trump's of his absolute mismanagement of the situation. Newsflash, Trump still has positive ratings for his handling of the economy. His numbers are in the toilet because 100,000 people are dead and the country is on fire.

[brucejoel99]

The jobs report probably ends any likelihood of another stimulus bill.

I don't understand how the WH can take this as evidence that more stimulus is unnecessary. We're still at 13% unemployment & the unemployment benefits of the prior stimulus package expire at the end of the month. Doing nothing more would still be terrible for the economy.

It's stupid & political idiocy to take this jobs number & claim victory & that the worst is over. But this administration is full of idiots, so that's exactly what they're gonna do.

[Calthrina950]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

Why does a business need an executive order to be able to do this?  I thought a private business was allowed to deny business to anyone they want, unless they are discriminating against a protected class, or they are in a special regulatory category like common carriers.  

I know of several business here in VA that were requiring masks before we ever went into lockdown.
If you can say “no shirt, no shoes, no service”, why not “no mask, no service”?

[Calthrina950]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

Why does a business need an executive order to be able to do this?  I thought a private business was allowed to deny business to anyone they want, unless they are discriminating against a protected class, or they are in a special regulatory category like common carriers.  

I know of several business here in VA that were requiring masks before we ever went into lockdown.
If you can say “no shirt, no shoes, no service”, why not “no mask, no service”?

Frankly, I don't understand why Polis decided to issue this order either, especially at this juncture. We are now nearly three months into the coronavirus crisis, and many businesses have been making masks mandatory for their customers for a long period already. Perhaps Polis did it as a gesture of support for those businesses, given the number of individuals who have persisted in their refusal to wear masks in public (such as the maskless customers at my job, which I've chronicled in detail throughout this). Cuomo issued a similar order in New York, and this was after he had made masks mandatory there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

When I went to a convenience store this past Saturday, I noticed that no customers or workers had masks. They didn't even have one hanging around their necks. This despite the health order.

People on the "LockdownSkepticism" board on Reddit say the same thing happens everywhere else.

Mask orders just aren't enforceable for very long.