COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[It’s so Joever]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

It's not like they are going to all die, the mortality rate on this thing is much much lower than expected.

Curious to know, what do you think the true mortality rate is?

Less than 1%.

I mean it’s possible.
I still think the virus will have a mortality rate of 1%~, but I wouldn’t say a mortality rate of 0.5% is out of question.
The “official” mortality rate (official deaths/official cases) as of now is 6%, but that obviously is a flawed number because of testing.

[T'Chenka]

If he fires Fauci, I will “exercise my rights” like Sprouts.

Calm the f__k down. This isn't a time to lose our heads.

[emailking]

I’m sure this will go over well with the public opinion.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1249487471630381056?s=21

I took his tweet to mean that Fauci's comments had been misrepresented by the media. They weren't, but he always says this crap.

[emailking]

It’s mutating, but not abnormally fast. It’s mutating slower than influenza does.

Is it mutating more slowly than influenza, or evolving more slowly than influenza? It could be mutating at the same rate, and the ones with adaptations to a hypothetical vaccine are dying out. They could thrive when such a vaccine comes out.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Do we know anything about how fast the virus is mutating, if at all?

The influenza virus' mutates in order to survive season to season, otherwise the populations' immunity will put an end to it.

In the case of Corona-virus, it is still unknown. Traditionally, the Corona-virus family of viruses mutate at a slower rate.

But immunity periods, mutation rates are as yet unknown in this case.

Keep in mind this virus has most likely been circulating in bats for eons. Hence we need to keep an eye on the what the virologists are saying as they research it's genome.

In the vast majority of cases where DNA or RNA mutates, it is a debilitating mutation. Although improbable here, on super rare occasions, virus can mutate into more effective versions.

[emailking]

In the vast majority of cases where DNA or RNA mutates, it is a debilitating mutation.

I thought most mutations basically have no effect.

[Beet]

In the vast majority of cases where DNA or RNA mutates, it is a debilitating mutation.

I thought most mutations basically have no effect.

You are right. However, when it does have an effect, it is more likely to be debilitating. On the other hand, high mutations make it hard to develop a vaccine, so overall a low mutation rate is still better.

[The Free North]

The data posted above is encouraging and I hope things look much much better in a months time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

In the vast majority of cases where DNA or RNA mutates, it is a debilitating mutation.

I thought most mutations basically have no effect.

I was saying "Debilitating to the Virus" which makes them auto-redundant.

Beet is right about the high mutation rate relative to normal cells.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

In the vast majority of cases where DNA or RNA mutates, it is a debilitating mutation.

I thought most mutations basically have no effect.

Beet is right but there are mutations of no effect that occur when the DNA sequence changes but the protein-bits that it produces is the same (because some amino acids can be produced by multiple highly-similar sequences of DNA/RNA).

Mutations tend to be bad because if you make a random change to DNA, the results are likely to have large changes on proteins (which often make them non-functional), but sometimes a random change will have no effect, or will produce a protein that is very similar.

Here is a good reading on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synonymous_substitution

e: this is important because it means a large proportion of the mutations will be so bad that they'll be effectively lethal (for the virus) and won't show up in the viral pool; mutations that are not lethal tend to be mutations of very small effect like the ones above. So you are correct in that mutations in extant viruses that anyone is likely to encounter tend to be effectively neutral.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, y'all.

For the first time in about ten days, my temperature is down.  I was also able to sleep through the night without being woken by a dry cough.  I'm no longer experiencing any pain on inspiration and just feel stronger in general.  My senses of smell and taste are starting to come back, too (right now, they're comparable to plugging your nose -- I can sorta smell and taste things, but only if they're strong).

Still gonna take it slowly and keep tabs on my vitals, but I think that I may be moving past the worst of it!

P.S. Roommate is symptomatic (dry cough, fever, etc.), but from talking to her, it seems that her symptoms may be a bit more mild.  

[T'Chenka]

Morning, y'all.

For the first time in about ten days, my temperature is down.  I was also able to sleep through the night without being woken by a dry cough.  I'm no longer experiencing any pain on inspiration and just feel stronger in general.  My senses of smell and taste are starting to come back, too (right now, they're comparable to plugging your nose -- I can sorta smell and taste things, but only if they're strong).

Still gonna take it slowly and keep tabs on my vitals, but I think that I may be moving past the worst of it!

P.S. Roommate is symptomatic (dry cough, fever, etc.), but from talking to her, it seems that her symptoms may be a bit more mild.  

Amazing that you're doing okay.

Wishing the best for everyone and anyone who contracts this virus, even Republicans.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1249663472935321600

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

It’s bit disingenuous not to be comparing their death rates to Italy, Spain, France, UK, etc. The reason they aren’t is because it would ruin the narrative...

[emailking]

Very glad to hear you're turning the corner Penn!

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DavidLarter/status/1249683337704243200

[Koharu]

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

It’s bit disingenuous not to be comparing their death rates to Italy, Spain, France, UK, etc. The reason they aren’t is because it would ruin the narrative...

So if we did what Trump wanted to do, things would go to a whole new level of sadness.

[Inmate Trump]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-tweet/index.html

Trump retweets call to fire Fauci amid coronavirus criticism

He’s losing it and we’re going to pay for it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Why are there morons in the UK destroying 5G towers believing that 5G causes Corona? Beyond stupid. That behavior better not spread to the US in any meaningful way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why are there morons in the UK destroying 5G towers believing that 5G causes Corona? Beyond stupid. That behavior better not spread to the US in any meaningful way.

Why are there morons in the US who believe that Jesus had a pet dinosaur and the earth is flat?

[Person Man]

Why are there morons in the UK destroying 5G towers believing that 5G causes Corona? Beyond stupid. That behavior better not spread to the US in any meaningful way.

Why are there morons in the US who believe that Jesus had a pet dinosaur and the earth is flat?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizotypal_personality_disorder

[Sbane]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-tweet/index.html

Trump retweets call to fire Fauci amid coronavirus criticism

He’s losing it and we’re going to pay for it.

If he fires Fauci everyone stops listening to Trump except for the cultists. And Fauci would then just get a position at CNN and keep giving advice to Americans and most would listen to him over Trump. Trump could become irrelevant real fast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For a nice, easily understandable presentation of the difficulties in modeling COVID-19, check this out from 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/

[Beet]

Very bad news, especially for the attractiveness of the herd immunity route:

In those who survived mild and severe disease alike, the researchers found that many of the biological measures had “failed to return to normal.”

Chief among the worrisome test results were readings that suggested these apparently recovered patients continued to have impaired liver function. That was the case even after two tests for the live virus had come back negative and the patients were cleared to be discharged.

At the same time, as cardiologists are contending with the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the heart, they’re asking how much of the damage could be long-lasting. In an early study of COVID-19 patients in China, heart failure was seen in nearly 12% of those who survived, including in some who had shown no signs of respiratory distress.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-10/coronavirus-infection-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver

Note that this is only for hospitalized patients, so the results may be skewed.