COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest stats have been provided from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Growth in Active Cases for the following countries is provided:


 
United Kingdom




France




Germany




Spain




Italy




USA




Growth Lines Only in Active Cases




USA vs Europe (Spain + Italy + UK + Germany + France)


The growth in UK continues at a faster rate.

The recoveries are now coming in strong from the European mainland which makes the Active Case data more accurate for analysis.

France has had the flattest curve of the European countries in terms of Active Case numbers and has experienced a fall in the last two days in growth.

Italy appears to be past the worst of it and growth has tended downwards since March 21.

Germany has had two strong days in growth, whilst France has had a turnaround in Active Cases after growing strongly 5 days ago.

Spain numbers look particularly encouraging with the 4th successive drop in 'Active Case' growth meaning the worst appears to be behind it in terms of exponential spread. I am confident that the change in Spanish growth (blue line on the Spain graph) will continue to decline further on this graph tomorrow after peaking back on March 26.

US growth is the strongest with 32,000 'New Cases' reported in the last 24 hours.

The interesting thing about mainland Europe (neglecting Swiss, Portugal, Netherlands etc) is that the numbers appear to have peaked in terms of growth rates in Active Cases.

Only the UK continues to grow at a faster rate on its initial curve upwards.

Keep on keepin' on....

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

You have countries like Spain, Italy, Germany and France daily growth well under 4,000 for the 3 per. moving average but worldometers shows growth of well over 4,000 for all of them. How does that compute?
Spain +7,134
Germany +6,365
France +5,233
Italy +4,585

Thanks Beet for the question, terrific question by the way. And as the only person on this forum to even remotely predict the monumental scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in it's current form, you do deserve a thorough and considered response. In January 2020, when numbers were not available, and a few cases were isolated to China, I was only expecting SARS 2.0 and fell ~99% short in the predicted scale of the numbers involved.

If only Donald Trump had employed you in the Corona-virus Task Force in January, the USA would be in a stronger position today.

Let's take China as an example. Here is a TOTAL case graph.



China TOTAL Cases




China ACTIVE Cases

As we approach the peak, which is now the case in the countries that you have quoted, there is a big difference between growth in TOTAL cases vs ACTIVE cases.

All of my analysis is using ACTIVE cases as I am trying to model the Active Bell curve. The predictions that I make in the next few days will be on fitting curves from positively skewed bell shaped curves like the one in South Korea, China, 1918 US cities etc. Nearly all populations in a viral flu epidemic follow a positively skewed bell shaped curve in terms of their ACTIVE cases.

The data you are quoting is TOTAL cases.

When the bell curve peaks, the ACTIVE case growth will logically be zero.

On the same day, the TOTAL case growth will still be significant. That is, the TOTAL case graph will never go down.

Hence the discrepancy.

Here are my numbers used for the 'ACTIVE Case' growth dataset:

Spain: +2,514
Germany: +4,062
France: +1,553
Italy: +2,339

People who have died or recovered from Corona-virus have been removed from these numbers compared to your list.

Then the graphs have 3 point averaging as you mentioned. The problem with 5 point averaging is that it moves the peaks over 2-3 days to the right.

But 5 point averaging does illustrate that in mainland European, growth rates are now in decline.

In the coming week, this type of ACTIVE case analysis will show when the peak of the bell curve is reached, or is predicted to reach a peak, in each country.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I appreciate what you're doing, but we need to keep in mind that these numbers are controlled by testing (because it's all we have), and that testing isn't being done rigorously or in sufficient volume. Eventually death counts will probably be a better proxy, but even those are obfuscated in various ways.

That is not matching the reality of the situation.

Dr Birx said yesterday that her analysis of the testing in the USA correlated with the hospitalisation rates and mortality rates in each region where she looked at the data.

She conducted her analysis of each dataset independently, and said there was enough granularity in each dataset to draw a consistent conclusion. Testing is therefore working and it is not overstating or understating the rates subsequently seen in the hospitals.

Dr Birx stated that based on analysis completed on 50% of the data, she has not yet seen any anomalies thus far where data from testing does not match the stated infection rates and subsequent hospital outcomes.

Your comment on death rates is accurate and would be more applicable in a country like Iran where the testing is suspect to begin with.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Based on data available here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Top growth rates in the world are for new countries entering the curve:

1   72.2%   Cameroon
2   28.8%   Kuwait
3   28.3%   Serbia
4   26.5%   UAE
5   23.7%   Palestine
6   23.7%   Niger
7   22.6%   Algeria
8   22.2%   Peru
9   22.2%   Channel Islands
10   22.1%   Paraguay

(min cases: 50)

In terms of countries with little to no infection rates of Corona-virus, that has been done for us already:



Normally I would say that these are the places where one should feel safe, but not on this occasion.

[Meclazine for Israel]

France just added 18,000 new cases to their total, which is now completely throwing off the daily numbers.

The only thing I could find is that they added 'Nursing Home' data.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/coronavirus-updates-new-york-reports-deadliest-day/12120784#France

I am going to back-add them across the last week to mimic what they would actually look like over time. Same total, slightly more accurate results in reality. 5 point averaging if you will.

Have had the same issue with recoveries all being added on one day of the week.

[Meclazine for Israel]

France just added 18,000 new cases to their total, which is now completely throwing off the daily numbers.

The only thing I could find is that they added 'Nursing Home' data.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/coronavirus-updates-new-york-reports-deadliest-day/12120784#France

I am going to back-add them across the last week to mimic what they would actually look like over time. Same total, slightly more accurate results in reality.

Have had the same issue with recoveries all being added on one day of the week.

     I would think they would be more focused on attributing results to accurate dates and times since they should be performing statistical analyses themselves, though they may be tracking that information internally.

I will wait until tomorrow to see what the French release next for new case numbers.

But releasing data all on one day after waiting a week means that the cases are not being added at the right rate. Same thing happens with recoveries.

I am happy to back-add them once I see the overall pattern. Given the nature of viral infection, it's highly improbable they all got sick on the same day.

[Meclazine for Israel]

It is definitely time to start planning to bring back the sports. Good idea, Don, couldn't last much longer like this. Let's just get the new schedules in place.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1246435315444785153?s=19

Some people on Atlas are underestimating how much live sports would be a morale boost for tens of millions of people.  Being able to watch sports every day would take my pain level in this from a 9/10 to a 6.5/10 just like that.

Hopefully they can figure out a strategy to bring back sports, even without crowds.

The only sporting event held in Australia today:

ATC Australian Derby

4 April 2020

https://youtu.be/o3tp4oznbKE

AFL will resume in July based on tonights news. This virus will peak, and then fade. Once it does, we will get our sports back without crowds initially

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Growth in the US: the reported rate of 'New' and 'Active' cases of Corona-virus has increased every day for 29 days straight.



Remember that this graph is not New Cases. This graph is actual 'growth' in Active Cases.

For example, new cases in the USA today was actually over 34,000. Percentage of people infected is less than 0.1% of the population in the USA.

As Spain and Italy report more recoveries in line with new cases from 2 weeks ago, their Active case curve will start to drop further. Both countries are seeing a fall in mortality which will hopefully translate into an equivalent increase in recoveries of Active Cases over the next week.

The deaths from COVID-19 peaked in Italy on March 27 after peak growth in Active Cases on March 21.

France now has the highest growth rate in Europe. UK not far behind, but the numbers on the weekend are always subdued. The 18,000 new cases in France have been backdated across the previous fortnight.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

The more cases that have piled up, the harder it is to get a percentage increase. Yeah I guess this is better than daily percentage increases. But the number of cases is still accelerating. We're not peaking.

That is actually true.

On an exponential growth curve like the USA is experiencing in graphic clarity, every day will actually see a decrease in percentage of new cases whilst seeing an acceleration in the number of actual new cases.

Why?

Dividing the new cases into a larger and larger base of existing infections makes no sense to get a percentage. It will just fall slowly like every exponential curve would. It's a symptom of the maths, not a reflection of the reality of what is actually happening.

It is a bit like this:

Growth of new cases in the USA was from Louisiana and Michigan.

But dividing that by the number of existing cases in New York is meaningless.

Hence percentage increases are doubly deceiving when analysing exponential growth data.

The only thing you can conclude is that those countries with the highest percentage increase in New Cases are most like in week 1 of the growth curve.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

The more cases that have piled up, the harder it is to get a percentage increase. Yeah I guess this is better than daily percentage increases. But the number of cases is still accelerating. We're not peaking.

That is actually true.

On an exponential growth curve like the USA is experiencing in graphic clarity, every day will actually see a decrease in percentage of new cases whilst seeing an acceleration in the number of actual new cases.

Why?

Dividing the new cases into a larger and larger base of existing infections makes no sense to get a percentage. It will just fall slowly like every exponential curve would. It's a symptom of the maths, not a reflection of the reality of what is actually happening.

It is a bit like this:

Growth of new cases in the USA was from Louisiana and Michigan.

But dividing that by the number of existing cases in New York is meaningless.

Hence percentage increases are doubly deceiving when analysing exponential growth data.

The only thing you can conclude is that those countries with the highest percentage increase in New Cases are most like in week 1 of the growth curve.

If the percentage growth is decreasing, then by definition you are not seeing exponential growth.  An exponential growth curve displays a constant percentage increase at all points.

Point taken.

I will change my statement to say that the growth we are seeing is sub-exponential due to two main reasons:

• The naive population available for new infections decreases with time;
• Recoveries and mortality from 'Active Cases' increase with time.

I don't actually know why countries are seeing vastly different levels of growth. I would assume social factors.

But I do know that this viral pandemic is starting with a stronger % increase at the bottom. Countries are starting with 30-80% growth per day, and then settling around 15-30% and so on as we reach the half way point.

It matters little. If it were a perfectly similar % increase on each day, that analysis would be pointless in looking at that data.

My point is that the % increase is not a reliable indicator to monitor the reality of the numbers in the US growth curve.

[Meclazine for Israel]

You could have a constant number of new cases each day, and that percentage increase would be going down.

Due to a consistent rate of sub-exponential growth in the USA, we have had an increase in case numbers whilst having a drop in case % growth.

Case % growth is therefore not a useful indicator under these circumstances.

[Meclazine for Israel]

You could have a constant number of new cases each day, and that percentage increase would be going down.

Due to consistent sub-exponential growth, we have an increase in case numbers whilst having a drop in case % growth.

Case % growth is therefore not a useful indicator under these circumstances.

What would be the preferred metric?

Just basic mortality numbers are ultimately what history records.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:Spanish_flu_death_chart.png

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some great news for people going crazy in isolation. You will be let out earlier than expected.

[tinfoilhat]

In terms of the top of the curve for Australia, Italy and Spain, I am saying that this has now been reached. But the 'official' data does not reflect that yet.

Based on growth rates, mortality, new case numbers, Italy and Spain should have seen their peak by now. But I could not figure out why.

Pulaski highlighted to me yesterday that in Australia, 1,800 recoveries were added suddenly to the Government stats. These were apparently from people who were isolating at home after a positive test, but there was no follow up by medical authorities. Certainly not daily, and nowhere near systematic enough to be used on these graphs effectively.

When I back-added these recoveries to the dataset over the last 7 days, it gave Australia a peak on April 2 2020.



That means Australia has already turned the corner and reached the top of the curve before we expected.

Now taking that thinking about recovered cases over to Europe.

For the UK, they are simply not reporting recovery data anywhere near what logical thought would assume the recoveries should be with a rate proportional to the new cases 10-14 days previous.

For Italy and Spain, I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

[statadjustment]

Now, assuming Italy and Spain have not been reporting recoveries from positive test patients isolating at home, I have added 4,000 recoveries per day to the Italian dataset and 3,000 recoveries per day to the Spanish dataset from a point in time 10-14 days following the accelerated diagnosis of new cases.

[/statadjustment]

That provides the following graphs:



Italy (Adjusted) Active Cases




Spain (Adjusted) Active Cases

These look more realistic relative to the mortality and daily new case rates coming in. The lag between new cases and mortality showed a correct lag. But the 'top of the curve' is not matching this 7-10 day lag until these adjustments are made.

It is unlikely that a country will have a peak in death rate before the peak in 'Active Cases'. Causative logic prescribes that one precedes the other.

They might be completely wrong, but I am assuming that Italy and Spain are not 'tracing' their positive cases from home following recovery.

If correct, we will see Italy and Spain dump a large number of recoveries in the near future on a single day.

I will plot up Germany tomorrow with adjusted recoveries and show a cumulative growth curve.

[/tinfoilhat]

Any chance that this means that there is a light at the end of the tunnel by earlier than mid-June?

That could be possible. It is unknown at the moment in the USA until the numbers start to calm down and a growth curve can be matched to the data.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177586

Tiger at Bronx zoo tests positive for coronavirus.

I wonder about lions and bears as well, oh my!

Great. Just great. Now, we have to stay 6 feet away from tigers too.

Wait, you mean to tell me I can just go up to a tiger and play with it?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Chloroquine  is legit the worst medication I've ever been on. It made me the sickest I've ever been for about two months when I took it.

Why were you on it to begin with?

[Meclazine for Israel]

There are now new cases in China, so that should caution anyone that wants to run right back to normal just because there is like a week or two of little to no new cases

New Daily Cases (yesterday)

30 - China
81 - South Korea
120 - Singapore
500 - Japan

China and South Korea numbers are negligible at this late stage.

With strict tracing and isolation protocols, i would rather be in this part of the world during a pandemic.

Japan and Singapore are approaching their highest level after a very slow start.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/coronavirus-update-queen-message-us-warning-boris-johnson/12123880

Let's see what they do in the next 2 weeks, because the virus is brewing.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

After looking at the data yesterday, I have modelled the new data using anticipated recoveries from Italy, Spain and Germany.

The modus operandi is this: After 2-3 weeks, a positive diagnosis must end in one of two outcomes: a fatality or a recovery. Assuming deaths are correct, and based on the numbers reported, it is clear that recoveries are not being listed after three weeks at the right volume. I am predicting that we are missing around 92,500 recoveries in the data from Spain, Italy and Germany alone.

Hence I have added in the following recovery rates for these countries 2-3 weeks following a positive test:

• Spain: 3,500 per day (Total: 24,000 missing)
• Italy: 4,000 per day (Total 51,000 missing)
• Germany 3,000 per day (Total 17,500 missing)

Thanks to FrancoAgo who confirmed yesterday that the Lombardy region has actually more recoveries (28,000) alone in their region in reality than what Italy is reporting as a whole (21,000). It makes sense that medical professionals are not visiting people at home to test them if they are free of the virus. Who would want to visit 60 positively tested people per day to conduct a medical assessment on their status?

These additional numbers were added on the dates 2-3 weeks following the date where new cases were reported coming in at a similar rate.

Rather than wait for these countries to suddenly report a large number of recoveries on one day.

Case in point:



Recoveries from Australia

Will be adding the anticipated rate of recoveries now to get more interpretable information from teh 'Active Case' curves.

Once these anticipated recoveries are incorporated into the European data, the growth curves now look like this:



Where these curves dip down through the zero growth line illustrates the date at which the peak of Active Cases is reached. This correlates well with peak of daily death rate as well.

As for the USA, apart from a lull on Sunday, the numbers are still growing, albeit at a lower rate.

Hence the first phase of sub-exponential growth period in the USA has most likely come to an end.

Monitoring the growth rate over the next 10 days will allow to tell one if the peak of 'Active Cases' is being approached.

For that to happen, the USA line has to come all the way back to zero.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

It took 20 days.

Touche. My impertinence was definitely visible on this occasion.

Incredible rate of mortality compared to where we were 20 days ago. I would not have ever imagined that mortality in any amount of time.

The contagion speed has been phenomenal.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1247638685652262912

i don't see a 2nd wave
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/

Yup,

I have seen more tweets about a second wave than new cases in Hong Kong, South Korea and China.

Singapore is on the increase, and Japan has a small virus outbreak which is not substantial yet, but people are forgetting these countries are well on top of their Corona-virus plans to begin with. So they can initiate much tighter restrictions than Western countries.

With such low case numbers, their medical facilities have not (besides China) been overwhelmed, so their thinking is much clearer for planning.

Proper isolation of infected cases from the populous is the real way to nip these outbreaks at the bud.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest growth numbers from Europe and USA looking much better.

USA appears to have turned the corner. Provided they don't get another surge in new cases, it looks as though the growth in 'Active Cases' is coming down on a 3 point weighted average.

All on the same scale, we have:



UK has a longer flatter curve, but continues to grow slowly.




France has one of the higher growth rates, but they also report data in lumps which make it harder to assess, both in terms of new cases and recoveries.

Big surge in new cases today.

(no adjustment to recoveries - will add over the next week)




Germany enjoys a low mortality rate, but still has significant case numbers comparable to Italy and Spain. The low mortality rate has been attributed to the quality of the healthcare system.

(added 18,000 recoveries)




Spain appears to be past the worst of the pandemic and is now on the downward slope. Surprisingly similar curve to Germany, but with a higher mortality rate.

(added 30,000 recoveries)




Italy looks almost identical to Spain, just half a week earlier. Not seeing any recoveries coming through in the data matching the new cases 2-3 weeks previous.

(added 60,000 recoveries)




USA has started to slow in growth numbers over the last 3 days, and has hopefully turned the corner. Mike Pence, a self-confessed non-scientist is confident the US has turned a corner from the data he is looking at.

The US does not release much data in the way of recoveries, so no adjustments can be made until we see that data.

Separating out these growth curves, and looking at the together, we have:



Hopefully the US will drop rapidly now in terms of growth in cases.

The decision in the USA to ascertain a time to restart society and the economy in the blistering scale of this pandemic is particularly confronting.

The USA (and Europe) have to jointly ride the lightning between keeping 1% of the population healthy who would otherwise die from this disease and keeping their economy and society functional for the remaining 99%.

Not an easy situation to be confronted with.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I live in an area of north Georgia that went 80+% for Trump in 2016.

People here still aren’t social distancing in large numbers. I still hear people using the “flu kills more people” argument. Or claiming that it’s just being overblown by the media. Or that it’s a liberal conspiracy to cause a recession because that’s the only way they think they can beat Trump.

Fortunately, my area is not heavily populated. Otherwise the idiocy would result in many more cases than we currently have.

I just don’t see how people can be so stupid.

Living through this, there is a clear divide in intelligence between those living in places where I live and those living in places that vote Democratic.

Flu kills more than 500,000 per year. Legit.
Media has overblown it by 400,000%. Legit.

It's a tough debate that needs to be had. You are lucky your population density is low despite being a dense intellect population.

Locking down society where a tiny percentage of the population will even get it, and 0.7% of that proportion will die is tolerable for a finite period.

But we need a solution.

Maybe we could copy Midsommar in a happier sense and send all the over 72's on a Cruise to Malaysia. No wait....that might not work.

My point is we cannot just listen to medical professionals say 12 months of isolation will result in zero infections. And that is what the Australian Chief Medical Officer is saying on TV. Our infection rate is the lowest in the world most likely because of our hot weather.

Anyway, best of luck to my US friends. Australia wont do anything about lifting restrictions until the Trumposaurus does something first.

We copied all his moves going in and will do the same coming out.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest data shows Turkey and Brazil entering a family of large populations suffering from the Corona-virus pandemic according to data from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just going through some of the data issues with each country and what it means for interpretation of the graphs you look at. Each country has it's own technique and although comparing countries is difficult, it can be done loosely if you realise what the variability is within each dataset.

UK

UK has a very high mortality rate based on current numbers. A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.0% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 7,097/33,718)

Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide, that would mean that the UK could

• either have 0.9 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

UK has reported less recoveries than deaths. In fact, their overall reporting is very unreliable for interpretation.

France

Data coming in is lumpy in terms of both recoveries and new cases.

A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 18.4% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 10,869/59,105)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France will:

• either have 1.4 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Once recoveries are calculated properly over the next week, it should show the peak of 'Active Cases' has been reached in the next couple of days.

France has had some considerable step changes in their reporting regime for all data including cases, deaths and recoveries.

Germany

Germany has some good mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 3.8% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 2,349/61,247)

Divide this by the rate of asymptomatic cases in countries like China and Australia, and you get around 0.7-0.8% mortality which matches the global average.

Germany has recently caught up on lagging recovery numbers with 18,000 recoveries reported in the last two days. 3 days ago, I was missing 22,000 recoveries from Germany in the 'Active Case' curve, so this is a positive step in reporting.

Germany has a good dataset for interpretation.

Spain

Spain has a very clean dataset in terms of consistent daily reporting.

The mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 19.7% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,792/74,974)

Again using similar statistics from the UK and France, Spain will:

• either have 1.85 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

My modeling has a deficit of 32,000 recoveries which I have had to add these in to make sense of the Spanish data.

Italy

Italy has had the most media attention as the first country in Europe to have an outbreak, so they were the least prepared.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.3% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 17,669/83,049)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France and Spain, Italy will:

• either have 2.21 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Based on the data presented, I have included 62,500 recoveries on top of those reported from Italy.

USA

USA has massive numbers to look at.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 6.45% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,736/228,404)

Divide that by 5 for asymptomatic cases that never get tested, then we have around 1.3% mortality rate closer to that of Germany, China and Australia.

Now, if 0.8% is the true final rate, that means the US has 350,000 total cases at present.

Overall, this is looking good in terms of testing and reporting, and allows better predictive capacity for future decisions.

When President Trump and Dr Birx refer to testing anomalies in other countries and under-reporting, they are referring to the numbers above.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The debate between the health crisis vs the economic crisis is starting to heat up:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronavirus-poverty-study-research-oxfam-anu/12136222

"Even under our most conservative scenario, too conservative to be realistic … we're still talking about 100 million extra people [falling] into extreme poverty," said ANU's Christopher Hoy, another of the authors.

My individual feeling is that some countries will let it run, if they haven't inadvertently done so already.

Under those circumstances, it would be better to have had the virus and developed antibodies. Those people with immunity will be more employable and more functional in the 'next' economy.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The debate between the health crisis vs the economic crisis is starting to heat up:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronavirus-poverty-study-research-oxfam-anu/12136222

"Even under our most conservative scenario, too conservative to be realistic … we're still talking about 100 million extra people [falling] into extreme poverty," said ANU's Christopher Hoy, another of the authors.

My individual feeling is that some countries will let it run, if they haven't inadvertently done so already.

Under those circumstances, it would be better to have had the virus and developed antibodies. Those people with immunity will be more employable and more functional in the 'next' economy.

But your reasoning totally fails to account for the fact that hospital systems simply couldn’t/can’t keep up with EVERYONE falling sick at the same time. Doing it your way means a lot of people end up dead, and if a lot of people are dying, there’s no way the economy goes back to normal. Rather than kill millions to save the economy, it would be better to make sure there is help available to those displaced by the shutdown.

You need to read it more carefully.

I dont have any reasoning or argument. It's just two separate issues that need to be managed. I am just presenting an article that talks about the debate. Some countries with little to no testing have already had it run.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/08/coronavirus-latest-news-2/

German antibody study indicates fatality rate of 0.37 percent

BERLIN — The preliminary findings of an antibody study by German virologists published on Thursday indicates a covid-19 fatality rate of 0.37 percent, information expected to inform government decision-making about lifting restrictions.

The study by researchers at the University of Bonn involves testing 1,000 individuals in the hard-hit district of Heinsberg in northwestern Germany in an attempt to ascertain the number of people who have been infected without realizing it.

The preliminary findings were based on results from 509 individuals, the researchers said in a news conference on Thursday.

Some 14 percent of the sample had antibodies for the disease, and an additional 2 percent had current infections. A death rate of 0.37 percent is well below the 3.4 percent case fatality rate cited by the World Health Organization last month and at the lower end of the 0.3 to 1 percent range that has been estimated by scientists.

Trump's hunch was right.

Roughly 3.5% of the Chinese patients in the case stats died.

Of those infected, only 20% showed symptoms and went to the medical testing stage. This was determined through modelling.

That left a base mortality rate of 0.7%.

Now if the German antibody test is accurate and was conducted on a similar population, that means for every 270 people exposed to the virus:

• 1 person died.
• 49 people developed symptoms which required medical attention and treatment.
• 85 people got sick but showed limited to no symptoms (asymptomatic and were not tested).
• 135 people started developing antibodies to their exposure almost immediately whilst never getting sick.

Which gives you a 0.37% fatality rate. Great news.

Wait 'til Donald finds out.