COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Virginiá]

New megathread started.

Old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=365781.0

[roxas11]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

[President Johnson]

Boy, it's a good thing we elected someone to Run Government Like A Business™

If the government was a business, it would be bankrupt. Donald Trump is an expert on this, see Trump Casinos, Trump Airline, Trump Steaks, Trump Water, Trump Entertainment Resports etc...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

%change from April 1 to April 2

Don't know how useful this is, since day-over-day numbers can fluctuate depending on what time of day states report. I might do a weekly heat map at some point.

30% Red: < 10%
40% Red: 10 - 12.5%
50% Red: 12.5 - 15%
60% Red: 15 - 20%
70% Red: 20 - 30%
80% Red: 30 - 40%
90% Red: > 40%

[It’s so Joever]

Alright I think the virus should peak (in number of new cases per day) in about 3-6 weeks (when the second wave peaks) in the US. This is your daily reminder that had we adopted “authoritarian” measures early, we would have been done with this in the US by now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Masks

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1246015654689476608


Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

[forgotten manatee]

Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

They didn't fail.

This is not what failure looks like:

Singapore
Confirmed: 1,114
Recovered: 266
Deaths: 5

This is what failure looks like:

United States of America
Confirmed: 265,001
Recovered: 11,983
Deaths: 6,766

I'd do anything to have the impact in the United States be as 'light' as it has been in Singapore. The fact that Singapore is going into lockdown despite their comparatively lesser impact shows you the seriousness with which they are treating this virus -- in complete contrast to Trump's America. Just remember, this horrifying ramp up in suffering and death, not to mention the economic shutdown, may have been avoided with meticulous testing in January 2020 -- like what had been done in South Korea -- but Trump insisted this was no worse than the flu and that it would soon be gone.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

[forgotten manatee]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

I take your point that negative partisanship will likely give Trump a higher floor -- but being on the news 24/7 for catastrophically failing to contain a virus is not going to help Trump with Democrats or independents.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

They didn't fail.

Failed to put it under control without close-downs that is. Stop misinterpret.

No, Trump didn't slow down testing. Didn't cut CDC, either.

[Bidenworth2020]

Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

They didn't fail.

Failed to put it under control without close-downs that is. Stop misinterpret.

No, Trump didn't slow down testing. Didn't cut CDC, either.

He quite literally dismantled the pandemic response department put together by Obama.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TRUMP's base in Florida are exposing themselves to the virus, rather than keeping themselves safe and healthy to vote for TRUMP in November.

Golf will go on at The Villages under Gov. DeSantis' 'stay-at-home' order

THE VILLAGES, Fla. - Golf received an OK under Florida's stay-at-home advisory, though other activities will be curtailed amid concerns the coronavirus is starting to take hold in there.

Officials in central Florida’s Sumter County, where most of The Villages retirement community is located, issued a stay-at-home advisory Tuesday recommending that residents remain at their houses except to get groceries, seek medical attention, work, care for another person or exercise outdoors.

Golf was specifically noted as permissible in the order’s exercise category. The Villages has dozens of courses. As one resident recently told The Associated Press, “This is The Villages. There would be a riot if they stopped golf.”

A day after Sumter County issued its advisory, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a statewide stay-at-home order Wednesday after weeks of resisting the move. The statewide order allows “participating in recreational activities” and lists walking, biking, hiking, fishing, hunting, running or swimming as examples but makes no mention of golf.

Video shows dozens gathered in The Villages during coronavirus pandemic

SUMTER COUNTY, Fla. — A video sent by a viewer to Eyewitness News shows residents in The Villages hanging out, watching the sunset at Lake Sumter – despite Sumter County leaders urging people to stay home and maintain social distancing.

The video in the link shows a huge group of golf carts all gathered together.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdmaccoby/status/1246036566423801857

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/jdmaccoby/status/1246036566423801857

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/1246149713016918016

[QAnonKelly]

https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2020/04/02/washington-state-group-is-1st-to-sue-fox-news-for-calling-coronavirus-a-hoax/

Fox News hit with first lawsuit

[Virginiá]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

FWIW, studies done on voting behavior and the economy do show time and again that voters really only base their decisions on the economy as it exists during election year. How good or bad it was before that is not all that relevant. Of course, this only matters to the extent that they factor the economy in at all. There are a lot of partisans that simply won't change their vote, no matter what. That is how even Hoover gets 39.7%.

[QAnonKelly]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

FWIW, studies done on voting behavior and the economy do show time and again that voters really only base their decisions on the economy as it exists during election year. How good or bad it was before that is not all that relevant. Of course, this only matters to the extent that they factor the economy in at all. There are a lot of partisans that simply won't change their vote, no matter what. That is how even Hoover gets 39.7%.

I'll have to find the article when I sign off from work in a minute but in 2012 Wonk Blog was able to estimate Obama's PV margin to I think a tenth of percentage point by studying the 2nd quarter growth in pres election years.

[Badger]

So since this is a thread for essentially all things coronavirus related, another chapter in my business is ongoing quest to seek Financial relief. So my law partner , God bless him, first called our bank at 9 this morning as scheduled. He got an automated message to call back at 2. He did so and then got an automated message to call back at 2:30.

Upon doing so he got an automated message saying to call back later. He called every two to three minutes for over 45 minutes before they even put him on hold. Let me reiterate that in his words. What type of f****** timeline do we live in where one celebrates the accomplishment of being put on hold?

And then, then, after waiting on hold for an hour, he gets another automated message saying we are experiencing difficulties processing your call, please try back again later.

And hangs up on him. The fact that he did not throw his phone against the wall proves he's a much better man than I.

At least he was able to get immediately back on hold when he called back a minute later oh, so hooray for small victories. He's planning on ordering pizza and staying by the phone so that we don't have to wait until Monday which could put us further back in the line of applicants. What a trooper.

This is what small businesses across this country are dealing with. And we've been proactive as hell in jumping on relief applications. God help anyone that's been tied up doing actual, you know, work to earn money rather than my partner spending a significant part of his work day the last couple weeks, along with my office manager, filling out forms and reading online is to Avenues we can pursue.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Highest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838887135481857
Lowest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838564404998144

These stats is by the way fairly misleading, too.

As far as I know most states have similar policy — test only people with symptoms. So states with more infected people per capita will test more per capita. It should be very strong correlation there.

Death is very good (but lagging) proxy for infected people. So take a look
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-maps-charts-states-testing-deaths



See the correlation with your stats?


For instance New York test 10 more people per capita than Alabama, but also has 20 more deaths per capita (https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/). Then you can say that AL test 2 more than NY per dead person.

As I said death is lagging proxy. About 2-4, perhaps. Therefore, NY, perhaps or even likely, test more than AL per infected but not a lot more. 100% not 10 less per infected as your highly misleading stat might have suggested for people who not good at stats and logic.

Hopefully, you understand what I mean. From Russia with Stats Explaining! 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So since this is a thread for essentially all things coronavirus related, another chapter in my business is ongoing quest to seek Financial relief. So my law partner , God bless him, first called our bank at 9 this morning as scheduled. He got an automated message to call back at 2. He did so and then got an automated message to call back at 2:30.

Upon doing so he got an automated message saying to call back later. He called every two to three minutes for over 45 minutes before they even put him on hold. Let me reiterate that in his words. What type of f****** timeline do we live in where one celebrates the accomplishment of being put on hold?

And then, then, after waiting on hold for an hour, he gets another automated message saying we are experiencing difficulties processing your call, please try back again later.

And hangs up on him. The fact that he did not throw his phone against the wall proves he's a much better man than I.

At least he was able to get immediately back on hold when he called back a minute later oh, so hooray for small victories. He's planning on ordering pizza and staying by the phone so that we don't have to wait until Monday which could put us further back in the line of applicants. What a trooper.

This is what small businesses across this country are dealing with. And we've been proactive as hell in jumping on relief applications. God help anyone that's been tied up doing actual, you know, work to earn money rather than my partner spending a significant part of his work day the last couple weeks, along with my office manager, filling out forms and reading online is to Avenues we can pursue.

There is a lot of reports that the big banks are putting all sorts of restrictive terms and conditions on who is even allowed to apply for loans. This totally defeats the purpose of what is supposed to be a government program to keep the economy from collapsing in a massive wave of small business bankruptcies. It was a horrendous mistake to make this necessary support to small businesses dependent in any way on the willingness and ability of the private banking industry to make loans. Loans (really grants) should be available for ALL small businesses, across the board, and it should not have been set up so that private banks had any say whatsoever in the matter. Given that they do have a say, it appears quite possible that a lot of small businesses could fail for no good reason. In addition, Congress chose to arbitrarily cap the amount that can be loaned to small businesses at too low a level, so that whichever small businesses are the last to be able to apply will not be able to borrow unless Congress can act quickly enough to expand the program with sufficient funding.

[Badger]

So since this is a thread for essentially all things coronavirus related, another chapter in my business is ongoing quest to seek Financial relief. So my law partner , God bless him, first called our bank at 9 this morning as scheduled. He got an automated message to call back at 2. He did so and then got an automated message to call back at 2:30.

Upon doing so he got an automated message saying to call back later. He called every two to three minutes for over 45 minutes before they even put him on hold. Let me reiterate that in his words. What type of f****** timeline do we live in where one celebrates the accomplishment of being put on hold?

And then, then, after waiting on hold for an hour, he gets another automated message saying we are experiencing difficulties processing your call, please try back again later.

And hangs up on him. The fact that he did not throw his phone against the wall proves he's a much better man than I.

At least he was able to get immediately back on hold when he called back a minute later oh, so hooray for small victories. He's planning on ordering pizza and staying by the phone so that we don't have to wait until Monday which could put us further back in the line of applicants. What a trooper.

This is what small businesses across this country are dealing with. And we've been proactive as hell in jumping on relief applications. God help anyone that's been tied up doing actual, you know, work to earn money rather than my partner spending a significant part of his work day the last couple weeks, along with my office manager, filling out forms and reading online is to Avenues we can pursue.

EDIT: and now they hung up on him again. It sounds like they do so every hour on the hour. He is in my office manager currently trading instant messages to decide if we want to continue Holding On the Line tonight, or start again 8 a.m. tomorrow. What a klusterfuk. That said, I won't blame this on the Trump Administration. I'm sure if Obama or Hillary were president and the same sort of massive rush for benefits by so many people occurring all at once do to the coronavirus, phone lines would be jammed then too. But Lord it sucks.

[Beet]

Highest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838887135481857
Lowest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838564404998144

These stats is by the way fairly misleading, too.

As far as I know most states have similar policy — test only people with symptoms. So states with more infected people per capita will test more per capita. It should be very strong correlation there.

Death is very good (but lagging) proxy for infected people. So take a look
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-maps-charts-states-testing-deaths



See the correlation with your stats?


For instance New York test 10 more people per capita than Alabama, but also has 20 more deaths per capita (https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/). Then you can say that AL test 2 more than NY per dead person.

As I said death is lagging proxy. About 2-4, perhaps. Therefore, NY, perhaps or even likely, test more than AL per infected but not a lot more. 100% not 10 less per infected as your highly misleading stat might have suggested for people who not good at stats and logic.

Hopefully, you understand what I mean. From Russia with Stats Explaining! 

Except your entire "misleading" criticism is also misleading-- because the only way a "death" can be confirmed as due to COVID19 is from testing.

Don't test -- death not due to COVID19 = low deaths per capita.

Simple and obvious. If you have lower tests per capita you will also have lower deaths per capita. The only way to be sure is either to test broadly, or compare total mortality statistics compared to a normal baseline.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FWIW, studies done on voting behavior and the economy do show time and again that voters really only base their decisions on the economy as it exists during election year. How good or bad it was before that is not all that relevant.

Isn't it the perception of where economy is going (near election) day that matters?
Most economist think that economy will start to rebound in Q3
+ Trump's Job Approval of Economy is still solid (per RCP  
+ more voters trust Trump/GOP than Biden/Dems in H2H polls (as I remember)
+ good reception of TRUMP POPULIST BOOMER STIMULUS.

Obviously, a lot will change in 7 months. Obviously, predictions of economy rebounding in Q3 has huge uncertainty. We'll see.


I'm curious what voters will give Trump on economy in coming weeks, because true unemployment is already ~13% per Upshot/Wolfer estimation. What will voters that have already lost job give Trump?



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
The Unemployment Rate Is Probably Around 13 Percent
It’s almost certainly at its highest level since the Great Depression. Here’s how we estimated it.