COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215

For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215
For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

Well, you could claim for there to be 4, but you do have a good point. Small time frames, past a certain point, result in small sample sizes, which makes comparisons less useful.

[Koharu]

Watch this video about how COVID kills.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/health/100000007056651/covid-ards-acute-respiratory-distress-syndrome.html?fbclid=IwAR3RhxWahHQXhcWuakCmAmX_Jxb1hMYB27SzKll3x7Ecj0pn7BmgTn8iNEw

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The American Academy of Family Physicians estimates that as many as 58k family physicians might be out of business or forced into retirement as a result of COVID-19 closures.

I'm admittedly not going to take the time to read this article because it's pretty dense, but offhand I'm rather surprised considering one would think Physicians are the one area of business that would be booming now ( assuming they can stay healthy and not catch coronavirus in the process)

In most places outside NYC/NJ, hospital/ER intakes have actually been down compared to before the beginning of the pandemic.  People are either deferring non-essential checkups and procedures or too afraid to go in due to the virus.  A 511-bed Hospital in Oklahoma City is temporarily closing due to a lack of patients.  I imagine private practice GPs are getting hit even harder. 

They are.  Where I work, we do payroll/accounting for several local medical practitioners.  This is hurting them all massively.

[Fargobison]

The American Academy of Family Physicians estimates that as many as 58k family physicians might be out of business or forced into retirement as a result of COVID-19 closures.

I'm admittedly not going to take the time to read this article because it's pretty dense, but offhand I'm rather surprised considering one would think Physicians are the one area of business that would be booming now ( assuming they can stay healthy and not catch coronavirus in the process)

In most places outside NYC/NJ, hospital/ER intakes have actually been down compared to before the beginning of the pandemic.  People are either deferring non-essential checkups and procedures or too afraid to go in due to the virus.   A 511-bed Hospital in Oklahoma City is temporarily closing due to a lack of patients.  I imagine private practice GPs are getting hit even harder.  

They are.  Where I work, we do payroll/accounting for several local medical practitioners.  This is hurting them all massively.

Mayo is getting ravaged by this financially. A lot of health care systems shut down most of the hospital which includes elective procedures where they make a big chunk of money.

What we are doing now isn't going to be sustainable for much longer at pretty much any level. A lot of the country should be moving to more of a comprehensive testing and tracing phase by the end of the month. Obviously more impacted areas will need to continue to be shutdown but at some point soon we need to move to a more nuanced approach to this thing.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215
For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

Well, you could claim for there to be 4, but you do have a good point. Small time frames, past a certain point, result in small sample sizes, which makes comparisons less useful.

Donald Trump's term to date is easily the worst of any resident in the White House since the Civil War. He's highly likely to rapidly end up as the worst in history once he's gone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215
For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

Well, you could claim for there to be 4, but you do have a good point. Small time frames, past a certain point, result in small sample sizes, which makes comparisons less useful.

Donald Trump's term to date is easily the worst of any resident in the White House since the Civil War. He's highly likely to rapidly end up as the worst in history once he's gone.

I am just uncomfortable with that line of thought, even leaving aside my utter dislike of Bush II. You and I don't know the future; a president worse than Trump is clearly in the realm of possibility. We need to be mindful of recency bias; Trump's heinous actions are now, while other bad president's actions were in the past, and as such we weigh Trump's sins more heavily. Its also the fact that Trump's been rather ineffective legislatively, which has some modicum of limiting the overall damage he has dealt the country.

[emailking]

Well the historians who rank Presidents always have him in the bottom 5, including the conservative ones. So there's that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well the historians who rank Presidents always have him in the bottom 5, including the conservative ones. So there's that.

Indeed. Trump will remain near the bottom for at least a while I suspect. But lowest rank is extremely competitive.
Only time will tell.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/jkbjournalist/status/1249138171117539328



BEST GOVERNOR EVER

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11 (Today):

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/jkbjournalist/status/1249138171117539328

BEST GOVERNOR EVER

Yeah, that's a big violation of the attorney-client relationship. If I hire a law firm to file a lawsuit & some politician 'persuades' my attorney to not file said lawsuit, then that law firm should be facing discipline from the Bar.

[Sbane]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNN/status/1248212213560758272



From my ancestral hometown of Jalandhar, so beautiful

This is good to see. So sad it's not always like that.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/jkbjournalist/status/1249138171117539328


BEST GOVERNOR EVER

Does HIPAA permit them to release that information?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just updating today's data with new predictive graphs. Sunday is pretty quiet, so I will do it again on Monday.

UK



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 77,072 Active Cases on April 18

First things first. I have added 8,200 recoveries to the UK data.

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

What does this say about the reported UK data?

It says the numbers are most likely missing something. It is highly unlikely that 50% of a normal population of cases tested on March 28 have died according to the data reported.

Hence the UK dataset needs to be looked at more carefully over time. My suspicion is that if the mortality numbers are correct, then:

• the initial reported cases are under-representative of wider community spread; and
• they are only testing really sick people.

France



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 101,671 Active Cases on April 19

Same technique as above.  

Total Cases listed on 28 March = 37,575
Recoveries listed today = 26,391
Deaths between 28 March and now = 13,832 - 2,314 = 11,518

Recoveries plus Deaths =  37,900

Hence the French dataset is pretty close to being straight, so no need to add any recoveries in this case.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/jkbjournalist/status/1249138171117539328

BEST GOVERNOR EVER

Yeah, that's a big violation of the attorney-client relationship. If I hire a law firm to file a lawsuit & some politician 'persuades' my attorney to not file said lawsuit, then that law firm should be facing discipline from the Bar.

What if that law firm has also worked for the state?

Imagine that Charles Cheatham esq. of Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe LLC (DCH) sends a letter to the state threatening to sue on behalf of "his" client. But he presumably uses the DCH letterhead.

But it happens that David Dewey of DCH had recently represented the state as outside counsel.

There is a potential conflict of interest. It is entirely proper for the Miami Herald to get another lawyer.

[Grassroots]

Good numbers from today. Lets keep this going, we might just end up peaking out 5ish days early

Just updating UK and France with new predictive graphs.

UK

UK Graph

France

France Graph

UK has some issues with reported data, such as....

I don't see them?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11 (Today):

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

New cases are lower than last Saturday.  It seems that the last week or so has been the peak of new cases, that we're right at the peak in hospital capacity (the UW model agrees), and that we are approaching the peak in deaths.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11 (Today):

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

New cases are lower than last Saturday.  It seems that the last week or so has been the peak of new cases, that we're right at the peak in hospital capacity (the UW model agrees), and that we are approaching the peak in deaths.

The peak rate of deaths will lag about two weeks from the peak in cases, so we're not there yet.

[It’s so Joever]

As I said for everything else, just wait a few days.
It does look like things are getting better, so hopefully social distancing is working, but we don’t know for sure we are there yet. If by Wednesday, there is general decline (or even no change) I will be a lot more optimistic.

[Badger]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

May I suggest that inaccurate hyperbole to such jaw-droppingly moronic actions by this Facebook group is the lesser of evils here by far? If even a tenth of that Facebook group showed up, including the law enforcement security required, contact with essential workers, Etc, it would be likely disastrous. Maybe not 1918 Philadelphia war bonds parade disastrous, but disastrous.

And I question whether this is a time for semantics between whether or not the hospital system in Michigan is overwhelmed verse is merely working its ass to the Bone. The point is a few thousand people deciding to protest quarantine wood really f*** things up for medical care providers in a dangerous, and above all grossly unnecessary way.

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

May I suggest that inaccurate hyperbole to such jaw-droppingly moronic actions by this Facebook group is the lesser of evils here by far? If even a tenth of that Facebook group showed up, including the law enforcement security required, contact with essential workers, Etc, it would be likely disastrous. Maybe not 1918 Philadelphia war bonds parade disastrous, but disastrous.

And I question whether this is a time for semantics between whether or not the hospital system in Michigan is overwhelmed verse is merely working its ass to the Bone. The point is a few thousand people deciding to protest quarantine wood really f*** things up for medical care providers in a dangerous, and above all grossly unnecessary way.

I'm not in any way supporting the protesters, opening up things this soon would throw away everything we have been fighting for the past 3 weeks, and especially when victory is almost in our grasp. All I'm doing is clearing up the narrative, that's all.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/


Data as of Apr. 12 at 3:15 a.m.

Cases:

Deaths:



Cases and Deaths, per state, raw:

Cases and Deaths, per state, per capita:






Yesterday:
1,877 deaths, of which 54% (771+251) are from NY + NJ.
Totally so far:
20,506 deaths, of which 53% (8,638+2,183) are from NY + NJ.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't celebrate, but to all those who do: Happy Easter, y'all.

Please please stay home.  

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Strictly speaking, shouldn’t conservatives be the ones cautious about opening up the country and the liberals be the ones wanting to open the country more willingly?

If we take the standard definitions of conservative and liberal, the two should be flipped on this issue.