COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Grassroots]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

I don't think you understand what herd immunity is. We would need over 70% of the population to get infected for that to happen, and that's exactly what we are trying to avoid.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.  

We are not aiming for herd immunity. Getting to that point quickly enough to make it a viable solution would have a catastrophic impact on society and the healthcare system, even if we're just sending out "healthy" young people to go get sick.

We are waiting for a vaccine, effective antiviral treatments, better hospital readiness, or a sufficient slowdown in cases for testing and contact tracing to serve as a viable option to suppress the disease.  

For my part, I'm not really sure we'd be able to do that last thing effectively; all it takes for us to return to uncontrollable spread is for one cluster to go unrecognized for a short period of time. So honestly, if you're not ready to anticipate multiple waves of correlated disease and social mitigation measures, I'd say we're living on a different planet. There is no quick solution until a vaccine because there is no realistic way to make the virus disappear.

[Del Tachi]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

I don't think you understand what herd immunity is. We would need over 70% of the population to get infected for that to happen, and that's exactly what we are trying to avoid.

In the absence of a vaccine, everybody getting infected is the only reliable way we move past this thing.  It’s how every other pandemic in human history has ended. 

[Grassroots]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

I don't think you understand what herd immunity is. We would need over 70% of the population to get infected for that to happen, and that's exactly what we are trying to avoid.

In the absence of a vaccine, everybody getting infected is the only reliable way we move past this thing.  It’s how every other pandemic in human history has ended. 

Millions would die though, and a vaccine isn't that far off.

[Del Tachi]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

We are not aiming for herd immunity. Getting to that point quickly enough to make it a viable solution would have a catastrophic impact on society and the healthcare system, even if we're just sending out "healthy" young people to go get sick.

We are waiting for a vaccine, effective antiviral treatments, better hospital readiness, or a sufficient slowdown in cases for testing and contact tracing to serve as a viable option to suppress the disease. 

For my part, I'm not really sure we'd be able to do that last thing effectively; all it takes for us to return to uncontrollable spread is for one cluster to go unrecognized for a short period of time. So honestly, if you're not ready to anticipate multiple waves of correlated disease and social mitigation measures, I'd say we're living on a different planet. There is no quick solution until a vaccine because there is no realistic way to make the virus disappear.

There is an inverse relationship between the effectiveness of current mitigation measures and the potential for future outbreaks.  If we’re too successful in preventing the spread of disease, we maintain a large population of individuals susceptible to future infection.  During the 1918 pandemic, cities with the strictest initial social distancing measures also had the most devastating recurrent waves of flu. 

[It’s so Joever]

...That’s not how it works. Only if you do nothing and if the disease doesn’t mutate is herd immunity the eventual outcome. With a significant lockdown, we can reduce the r0 factor to the point the disease dissipates over time, leaving it only in certain areas which we can close off when necessary while reopening the rest of the country.
Of course, I bet you would prefer to do nothing and purposefully get 70% infected to own the intellectuals.
I actually wish people who think herd immunity is a good option could be sent to an isolated island and infected with the virus, all without medical treatment.

[It’s so Joever]

Also I do think a vaccine will come sooner than we think. It won’t be very soon, but it’s possible we have a vaccine for this by the end of the year. We also almost certainly will have an effective treatment.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1249421001689051136

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1249012275681337345

Jesus christ, SO MANY ignored memos.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

[brucejoel99]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

sigh

[It’s so Joever]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

If only we could test the effects of the virus deliberately on people who willfully break the rules without reason and after knowing what they can/can’t do...

(Chill, pearl clutching-Orange avatars, I wouldn’t support something like that because of possible abuse/corruption)

[T'Chenka]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

F__king disgusting.

[Grassroots]

Today's death toll and new cases are going to be lower than last Sunday's totals on this trajectory.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Today's death toll and new cases are going to be lower than last Sunday's totals on this trajectory.

Dawg it's Easter. Today has the biggest potential for irregular reporting and sampling out of any day during the first wave of the epidemic.

[parochial boy]

...That’s not how it works. Only if you do nothing and if the disease doesn’t mutate is herd immunity the eventual outcome. With a significant lockdown, we can reduce the r0 factor to the point the disease dissipates over time, leaving it only in certain areas which we can close off when necessary while reopening the rest of the country.

There was a (German language unfortunately) youtube video that got a fair amount of buzz here, and looks at some of the various epidemiological studies that have been done on how achievable "herd immunity" is. Basically the conclusion is that it isn't achievable.

In order to achieve it ether you have let the thing run it's course, and completely explode the medical system in a way that is just not feasible (and it's not even up for debate any more that this would be the result). Or, even in a country with a lot of intensive care capacity, in the less optimistic scenarios, you need a lockdown-slash-social-isolation that reduces the R0 to below 1.1 and would need to keep those measures in place for as long as two years. Again, completely impossible as an option given the economic and social consequences.

So the conclusion is, the only thing you can do is reduce the number of infections back to a level where contact tracing is feasible, at which point you can ease the restrictions. The hope being that these should be more succesful the second time round as jurisdictions and healthcare systems are prepared, but people themselves are also going to be more careful about avoiding big events, washing hands, social distancing as they know what will happen if they don't. In that way, we can have some degree of normality until the vaccine is ready, but maybe don't expect many big sporting events between now and the end of the year.

[It’s so Joever]

Bad news for Coloradans, case number rises are going up again. We thought we hit an early peak when for a few days it went down to 250+, but they are bouncing back. 410 new cases have been reported today. Whether the increase will reverse or not will be seen this next week.
Also here is a nice article that everyone should read, especially all the virus-truthers on here.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/denver-professor-living-in-spain-says-us-is-not-doing-enough-to-combat-coronavirus/amp/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

I don't know about that. If we didn't have state and local officials stepping up I think we could have seen similar results here from the Trump administration's response.

[Joe Republic]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

Die, then.  Can't say they weren't warned.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

How is Sweden’s economy holding up relative to the rest of Europe?  And is their health care system close to collapsing?

[Gass3268]

Kansas’ high court rules for governor on religious services

The Kansas Supreme Court ruled Saturday that a Republican-dominated legislative panel exceeded its authority when it tried to overturn the Democratic governor’s executive order banning religious and funeral services of more than 10 people during the coronavirus pandemic.

The decision letting Gov. Laura Kelly’s order stand came after the justices heard oral arguments one day before Easter, which is typically the busiest day on the Christian calendar in terms of church attendance. The Saturday hearing was the court’s first conducted completely via video conferencing.

The court ruled that legislative action designed to give the legislative leadership panel the ability to overrule Kelly’s executive orders was flawed and didn’t legally accomplish that.

I can't think of a better state Supreme Court compared to the state's partisan lean than the Kansas Supreme Court.

[Grassroots]

Bad news for Coloradans, case number rises are going up again. We thought we hit an early peak when for a few days it went down to 250+, but they are bouncing back. 410 new cases have been reported today. Whether the increase will reverse or not will be seen this next week.
Also here is a nice article that everyone should read, especially all the virus-truthers on here.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/denver-professor-living-in-spain-says-us-is-not-doing-enough-to-combat-coronavirus/amp/

It never went down, those three days were outliers, and overall if you look at the bigger picture it's going down.

[T'Chenka]

Just saw on Red It:

VanceKelley2h
   

When the groundhog sticks his head up above ground and sees packed churches on Easter it means another 6 weeks of lockdown for everyone.

[DINGO Joe]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.