2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

This is mostly likely the reason for sending it to the State Supreme Court.   Probably the only thing either party really cares about is the Congressional map for obvious reasons.  

The NJ Dems probably want to at least try to get everything and if they lose they really don't lose all that much anyway.

The two outcomes I see are 9-3 or 10-2.   8-3-1 would be best case scenario for Republicans, but probably isn't happening.

I would not be shocked if Dems have good luck with court decisions because these judges know the chances of another 1/6 increases if the GOP runs Congress.

Doubt it happens but wonder if Dems could do a 10-1-1 map if they had tiebreaker and packed NJ-4. Maybe they could swap some precincts in NJ-1 and 2 to turn Van Drew into a 51-47 Biden seat or something while giving Trenton to Kim.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 12-district map of New Jersey.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.07%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

85/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
75/100 on the Compactness Index
37/100 on County Splitting
51/100 on the Minority Representation index (everywhere's super mixed)
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2012/2016 Presidential Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R

2017 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: 8D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R


Opinions?

[Gass3268]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1423753995403804680?s=20

[Stuart98]

Incumbent protection map here we go

[Tintrlvr]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1423753995403804680?s=20

Interestingly this happened even though one of the Democrats recused herself (because she was once a clerk for Wallace), so at least one Republican must have voted for Wallace as well. (The NJ Supreme Court is split 3D-3R-1I.)

Wallace has very strong ties to the South Jersey Democratic machine so do expect there to be focus on ensuring at least two districts for the Democrats in South Jersey.

[Tintrlvr]

I tried my hand at a fair 12-district map of New Jersey.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.07%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

85/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
75/100 on the Compactness Index
37/100 on County Splitting
51/100 on the Minority Representation index (everywhere's super mixed)
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2012/2016 Presidential Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R

2017 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: 8D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R


Opinions?

While it exists currently, the Burlington-Ocean district is crap and would never be drawn on a good government map of New Jersey. The border between the two counties is almost completely unpopulated, definitely the emptiest part of New Jersey, and Burlington very clearly faces southwest towards Philly and northwest towards Trenton, while Ocean is entirely oriented to the shore. Also, there's no highway connection at all between the two counties (leaving aside the tiny shore-oriented bit of Burlington at the southern end, which could be hived off without issue); closest you come is NJ-70, which is just a regular two-lane road.

Much better to keep that border intact and push the Monmouth district into Middlesex instead, with Mercer turning south into Burlington instead of north into Middlesex.

[Devils30]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1423753995403804680?s=20

Interestingly this happened even though one of the Democrats recused herself (because she was once a clerk for Wallace), so at least one Republican must have voted for Wallace as well. (The NJ Supreme Court is split 3D-3R-1I.)

Wallace has very strong ties to the South Jersey Democratic machine so do expect there to be focus on ensuring at least two districts for the Democrats in South Jersey.

I expect a 10-2 map now, Dems have no reason to compromise and throw Malinowski under the bus when they can add a few towns to NJ-7 and make it around Biden +16.

I expect 5,11 to get bluer and they will take in parts of Essex, Bergen currently held by Pascrell and Payne.

3 should become a Biden district, maybe it gets Trenton or runs up into Middlesex.

Question is how the Dems do 10-2, perhaps they would make NJ-7 a red vote sink in exchange for giving Van Drew part of NJ-1 and turning it into a Biden +7 seat or so. Would say NJ-7 getting the Plainfields, Princeton and towns in northern Mercer is more likely scenario (or Wasserman's NJ-12 with Hunterdon, Warren and Mercer/Middlesex.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Surprisingly it’s NJ-8, NJ-9 and NJ-10 that ended up being very overpopulated, so districts aren’t likely gonna be pulled into NE Jersey which makes Dems job of shoring up 5, 7 and 11 easier to achieve

[Torie]

I just shipped off this beauty, a ward map for Hoboken, to the city council members and the mayor, to save them some time.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7df20b23-ad3d-47b9-acee-2aa8aa450ff0





Here are the current lines. I sent them to the power structure, with some humor. Least change baby, for the incumbents. I also have some hope I can be a change agent on stopping a horrible development project, one council person at a time, but that is another story. Keep hope alive!



No matter what the outcome, being in the fray is the thing, to try to make a positive difference, win or lose. That's what gives my life more meaning and purpose. Losing does not matter that much at this stage of my life. The journey is the thing.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1446145958866300929

[ChineseConservative]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

[Pericles]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

[CookieDamage]

I wonder if this spooks Dems into really gerrymandering the assembly map

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Ehh, it still might be the best longterm play

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

He’s probably begging Bonnie Watson Coleman to retire at this point so he can take her seat.

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

[Devils30]

I would still try for a 10-2, it will give Dems the best chance in an environment where they can win the House (either a crazy 2022 change or 2024-26-28-30). But it does make the idea of screwing Van Drew go down the drain, just make NJ-2 a red vote sink.

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

All pretty weak incumbents. 

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

All pretty weak incumbents. 

Malinowski was very weak too. And Sherrill and Gottheimer did rather unspectacularly against nobodies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

Yeah, 9-3 is probably the safest long-term play for Dems (regardless of whether 2022 is a wave or not). Not all of the 9 are going to be Safe D but gerrymandering is about balancing higher seat county and more safe districts anyway.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456643016668684289

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456643016668684289

That's a nice looking map. Perhaps too nice looking to be realistic.