Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Beautiful!

The people demand a 14-3!

This Illinois resident demands 14-3!

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Beautiful!

The people demand a 14-3!

This Illinois resident demands 14-3!

They demand 14-3 just like they demand the "fair tax".

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Hell yeah

[Oryxslayer]

This only makes it further obvious that Downstate could have been made more democratic for little effort or effect on the map. Champaign and Urbania remaining in the same seat it the most apparent example. But The suburban lines make an concentrated effort to utilize Democratic growth in the region.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1401926409153622019?s=20

[jimrtex]

Keep in mind that there is no deadline in IL for the congressional redistricting other than what is needed to meet federal law. Talk about alternative data sets are most important for legislative redistricting which has a Jun 30 deadline before a bipartisan back-up commission is formed to draw the maps. Congressional maps can be drawn and passed in late Aug using real 2020 Census data in the "legacy" format, and it won't affect the primary date or Dem control over the process.

I thought that the Illinois Supreme Court had construed the state constitution to require strict equality among legislative districts.

What data did they use? The legislative redistricting sites showed maps but no data?

The house districts in Chicago are horrible. Can an equal protection case be made for extending districts out for 40 miles in order to pick up population but retain effective control in Chicago?

[Nyvin]

Apparently the medium seat in the Senate is still to the right of the statewide vote and in the House it's almost exactly even.

I guess that just shows Republicans still have a massive geographic advantage in the state overall, it's just that the raw vote totals are so overwhelmingly Democratic that the IL Dems can overcome it (and obviously the gerrymandering helps too).

[Oryxslayer]

Keep in mind that there is no deadline in IL for the congressional redistricting other than what is needed to meet federal law. Talk about alternative data sets are most important for legislative redistricting which has a Jun 30 deadline before a bipartisan back-up commission is formed to draw the maps. Congressional maps can be drawn and passed in late Aug using real 2020 Census data in the "legacy" format, and it won't affect the primary date or Dem control over the process.

I thought that the Illinois Supreme Court had construed the state constitution to require strict equality among legislative districts.

What data did they use? The legislative redistricting sites showed maps but no data?

The house districts in Chicago are horrible. Can an equal protection case be made for extending districts out for 40 miles in order to pick up population but retain effective control in Chicago?

This is a trick that several states like Illinois, Oklahoma, and maybe Colorado next are using to compromise their legal deadlines with the lack of official data. They are using other census data, like the ACS. Then when final data comes out they expect the maps to go to the courts. The maps will be struck down and the legislature will have first dibs to make the marginal changes to restore equity. So theses maps are something very close to their final plan.


I can't comment on the tentacles, but I'm sure someone out there would argue in their favor. Such lines, while unwieldy, do avoid racially packing Chicago minority groups into their voluntarily segregated city, and therefore increases community representation.

[lfromnj]

Keep in mind that there is no deadline in IL for the congressional redistricting other than what is needed to meet federal law. Talk about alternative data sets are most important for legislative redistricting which has a Jun 30 deadline before a bipartisan back-up commission is formed to draw the maps. Congressional maps can be drawn and passed in late Aug using real 2020 Census data in the "legacy" format, and it won't affect the primary date or Dem control over the process.

I thought that the Illinois Supreme Court had construed the state constitution to require strict equality among legislative districts.

What data did they use? The legislative redistricting sites showed maps but no data?

The house districts in Chicago are horrible. Can an equal protection case be made for extending districts out for 40 miles in order to pick up population but retain effective control in Chicago?

This is a trick that several states like Illinois, Oklahoma, and maybe Colorado next are using to compromise their legal deadlines with the lack of official data. They are using other census data, like the ACS. Then when final data comes out they expect the maps to go to the courts. The maps will be struck down and the legislature will have first dibs to make the marginal changes to restore equity. So theses maps are something very close to their final plan.


I can't comment on the tentacles, but I'm sure someone out there would argue in their favor. Such lines, while unwieldy, do avoid racially packing Chicago minority groups into their voluntarily segregated city, and therefore increases community representation.

Colorado is merely just using estimated to get an estimated ideas for their map and then will collect early public feedback. They have no desire to use ACS for the actual map.

[CookieDamage]

I felt naughty. Didn't really pay much attention to incumbent seats but all the Chicago area seats are virtually safe D now so I doubt any of them would care unless I drew them into another dem's district. 1 and 2 are majority Hispanic and Black, respectively.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fc89c5a8-29e7-4de1-ada9-956c4bdd35b4

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

o_O

I hope they know that IL has one of the earliest release dates for maps so they kinda set the precedent for the country.  

I'm not a fan of this honestly.

17 in this map isn't even that bad compared to what Republicans in Texas and Florida are going to spit out. We must have 14-3 in Illinois and a favorable map in New York to counter the big GOP states. Hopefully SCOTUS reviews in the next 10 years and overturns this process before more Democratic states decide to self-own and give away their own power.

[Brittain33]

Has anyone run your 14-3 maps through the 2020 Presidential data? I’m away from my computer for a few days so do not have that ability.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Has anyone run your 14-3 maps through the 2020 Presidential data? I’m away from my computer for a few days so do not have that ability.

Mines not 14-3, but it instead its 13-4 using 2020 Prez data. IL-15 is only a lean R

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Made another 13-4 map, but this time I made the downstate dem snake end at Bloomington instead of Dansville. The Dem districts in the Chicago area are more solidly blue this time as well.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f17c6e9-a8b6-4fcf-9e7c-a73e8af13e1b

[Non Swing Voter]

New York, you gonna let Illinois rub your nose in how useless you are? Get to it.

The most useless one by far though is California.  If they didn't have a commission they could really do massive damage to the GOP.  And not just that, they've got a lot of horrendous GOP members of congress there like McCarthy, Nunes, Issa, etc.

[Non Swing Voter]

So how many seats could Dems realistically gain with some of those maps above?  I am assuming 17-0 is near impossible. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New York, you gonna let Illinois rub your nose in how useless you are? Get to it.

The most useless one by far though is California.  If they didn't have a commission they could really do massive damage to the GOP.  And not just that, they've got a lot of horrendous GOP members of congress there like McCarthy, Nunes, Issa, etc.

Yeah but the commission is d biased

[Non Swing Voter]

New York, you gonna let Illinois rub your nose in how useless you are? Get to it.

The most useless one by far though is California.  If they didn't have a commission they could really do massive damage to the GOP.  And not just that, they've got a lot of horrendous GOP members of congress there like McCarthy, Nunes, Issa, etc.

Yeah but the commission is d biased

How biased?  I feel like any commission that is even slightly D biased would destroy McCarthy and Nunes's districts.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 17-district map of Illinois.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

96/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
83/100 on the Compactness Index
65/100 on County Splitting
63/100 on the Minority Representation index
24/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Illinois: 12D to 5R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Illinois: 11D to 6R

2018 Illinois Attorney General Election: 11D to 6R

2018 Illinois Gubernatorial Election: 11D to 6R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Illinois: 11D to 6R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Illinois: 12D to 5R


Opinions?

[Gass3268]

I can't find the tweet now, but Illinois has a 8/31 deadline for Congressional redistricting, so we should be getting a map here soon.

[BoiseBoy]

I can't find the tweet now, but Illinois has a 8/31 deadline for Congressional redistricting, so we should be getting a map here soon.

Is it this Tweet? I can't find any other info about an 8/31 deadline.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1427393200243855362

[Gass3268]

I can't find the tweet now, but Illinois has a 8/31 deadline for Congressional redistricting, so we should be getting a map here soon.

Is it this Tweet? I can't find any other info about an 8/31 deadline.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1427393200243855362

That's it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Illinois early because it has particularly early filing deadlines?

[BoiseBoy]

Isn't Illinois early because it has particularly early filing deadlines?

Candidates can start filing congressional runs on March 7, 2022, with a deadline of March 14 2022. It was originally November 29, 2021, but Pritzker signed a bill extending the deadline.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/illinois/

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/shiakapos/status/1428755834650169346?s=21

[muon2]

https://twitter.com/shiakapos/status/1428755834650169346?s=21

Some districts are off by more than 10% and others have substantial changes in minority populations compared to the enacted map. Some amendments to the map may be substantial.