Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Green Line]

They should draw a new hispanic majority seat for Fran Hurley or Kelly Burke on the southwest side.  I'm confident either would be elected.  Just cut out the Will County portions and include a bit more of Worth and Bremen Township, along with enough of southwest Chicago to make it majority hispanic.

[Green Line]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

But I can't see it.  I'll show you how to draw it so the southern one can be won by an Evergreen Park democrat.

[Green Line]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats.

As you can see, very easy to get two hispanic seats in Cook County in a 17-seat map. It'll probably be even easier when the new Census numbers come out since I imagine hispanic numbers have gone up.

Districts 1 and 2 will be slightly under 50% black, but still easily enough for a black Democrat to win a primary if there isn't a clown car vs  single white candidate.

The third district would have a majority white electorate, and it wouldn't even be close.  I love it because it would be the perfect seat for a Madigan ally like Fran Hurley or Kelly Burke to run it, but I don't think that was your intention.

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

Oh well. Minority opportunity districts are just that: opportunities. If they can't take advantage of that, then that's not the map-makers problem.

That's true.  I love it, maybe I'll send to Madigan.  Its by far the best shot at getting another conservadem from the southwest side into office!

[Green Line]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

While I agree with you that 2 ear muff districs are no longer necessary to elect hispanic members, Chuy is not going to be happy with this.  The electorate will probably 50-50 white/hispanic, with the whites being city workers.  I think he'll be fine, but there are a lot of different interests going up against each other here.  If Madigan holds on, there is likely doa for the same reason, as it swallows all of the machine areas.  I think both Chuy and Madigan would prefer a continuation of the earmuff.  If Madigan is not Speaker in November, this changes things, but I think Chuy (who will have even more influence in this scenario) would still want an earmuff.

And that 5th district will probably elect a white too, which I don't think was your intention.

[Green Line]

Take Lyons Township out of the 8th and replace it with Stickney Township, Garfield Ridge, and Clearing.  Then I will approve.

Edit:  And for good measure, chop off the western half of Orland and take in Marquette Park, Scottsdale, and some other areas around there.  Thanks.

[Green Line]

When I was in college, CD's 1, 15, and 8, as drawn at the moment as a "work in progress," were about close to 100% white working class and totally racist when it came to blacks. Now as to 1 and 15, they have been almost entirely supplanted with Hispanics, who were accepted, in a way blacks were not. And way back then, Chicago had but one Mexican restaurant. I suspect there are a few more now.

Yes, we've built a beautiful multi-ethic community of working class irish, mexicans, and poles.  Now racist white Democrats in Western Springs, La Grange, and Orland and trying to ruin it all.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Wow, disgusting and evil.

What is with the purple district snaking around the 4th district like that.  Its just gratuitous.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Beautiful!

The people demand a 14-3!

This Illinois resident demands 14-3!

They demand 14-3 just like they demand the "fair tax".

[Green Line]