2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Boss_Rahm]

By the does anyone know more about the York-Gettysburg Carlisle area historically? Why was this area relatively Democratic relative to PA in the late 1800's/early 1900's? I assume the same type of settlers?

The Klan was strongest in this area historically. And considering it elected Doug Mastriano not a whole lot has changed.

[ctherainbow]

(^ With 2020 Presidential results)



(^ With county lines so you can see the splits)

This is the map I'm submitting directly to the PA Supreme Court for consideration during their mapping deliberation.  Relatively partisan balanced map that strengthens minority representation in the Philly area.  Drawn with complete disregard to incumbent residences, which shows, as there are 3 new open seats from redistricting (4 open seats with Doyle's retirement), and 4 sets of double-bunked reps.  2020 Census and President numbers:

District 1 (Evans):  51.3% VAP Black --> 53.3% VAP Black / 91.3% D --> 89.2% D

District 2 (Open/Formerly Boyle):  59.7% VAP Minority --> 61.5% VAP Minority / 70.2% D --> 76.3% D

District 3 (Boyle/Fitzpatrick):  52.4% D --> 51.3% D

District 4 (Dean):  61.5% D --> 63.4% D

District 5 (Scanlon):  65.1% D --> 60.6% D

District 6 (Houlahan):  56.9% D --> 54.4% D

District 7 (Wild):  51.8% D --> 50.1% D

District 8 (Cartwright):  51.7% R --> 51.3% R

District 9 (Keller/Meuser):  64.5% R --> 68% R

District 10 (Smucker):  60.2% R --> 59.9% R

District 11 (Perry):  50.7% R --> 51.2% R

District 12 (Joyce):  71.6% R --> 71.0% R

District 13 (Open/Formerly Reschenthaler):  63.2% R --> 66.7% R

District 14 (Kelly/Thompson):  71.2% R --> 67.9% R

District 15 (Open/Formerly Kelly):  58.7% R --> 58.5% R

District 16 (Doyle):  64.5% D --> 61.1% D

District 17 (Lamb/Reschenthaler):  50.7% D --> 51.2% D

Population deviation is below 1,000 for every district, with District 16 being within 6 of the ideal district population.  16 county splits compared to 18 on the current map, with no county being split more then twice (the only 3 counties split twice are Montgomery, Philadelphia [which has to be split at least twice], and York).  This map partially reunites Berks and Butler counties by only splitting them between 2 districts each instead of the current map splitting them between 3 districts each.  Zero split precincts and 6 split municipalities across the entire state, and I increased the number of districts contained within a single county to 4, by getting rid of the unnecessary Berks strip in the 4th District.

I could have reduced county splits to 15 and municipal splits to 0 if I was willing to accept greater population variance, but I feel 1,000 is a good target to go by.

Overall, these districts are:

2020 Pres:  9D/8R
2020 AG:  10D/7R
2018 Sen:  11D/6R
2018 Gov:  12D/5R
2016 Pres:  8D/9R
2016 Sen:  7D/10R
2016 AG:  10D/7R

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7207d2a4-a192-4f72-890f-38bce911db37

Thoughts?    

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district. The portions of Delaware are actually a bit more red than Chester but it should be Safe D at this point.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

Ye I feel with some fine tuning this map could be really good from a COI  and VRA standpoint. I feel like people just think of Bucks as a giant politically even suburban brick throughout, when really it goes from WWC to Wealthy Suburbs to exurbs. Kinda gets me annoyed that no one is at least willing to play around more to just see what would happen if Bucks were split, but we prolly gonna end up with soemghing like the current map

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

Ye I feel with some fine tuning this map could be really good from a COI  and VRA standpoint. I feel like people just think of Bucks as a giant politically even suburban brick throughout, when really it goes from WWC to Wealthy Suburbs to exurbs. Kinda gets me annoyed that no one is at least willing to play around more to just see what would happen if Bucks were split, but we prolly gonna end up with soemghing like the current map

Well County lines are pretty important in PA overall. It doesn't really matter from a VRA perspective as one black majority district right now is considered compliant anyway. It does however create that 2nd district by taking that portion of Lower Delaware if you care enough of that.

It would be interesting to see how SEPA incumbents shuffle if this was the map. Houlahan probably just takes her Chester seat and Dean takes the Lower Montco seat but Scanlon's seat got cut in 2. Does she run in the black seat or against Houlahan or just retire?
Evans probably takes the central Philly seat?

Fitzpatrick has an interesting choice, he can either keep the lower bucks philly seat or "carpet bag" to the Berks seat which is Trump+0.2 actually(I accidently had a precicnt from Lower merion in it).

And lastly Boyle also has 2 tough choices especially if Fitzpatrick doesn't carpetbag. Does he want the new swing working class district or does he go for the central Philly seat?  I am wondering who runs in the Lower Bucks seat if Fitzpatrick carpetbags north. The best candidate for the GOP would be Martina White.

[sting in the rafters]

By the does anyone know more about the York-Gettysburg Carlisle area historically? Why was this area relatively Democratic relative to PA in the late 1800's/early 1900's? I assume the same type of settlers?

The Klan was strongest in this area historically. And considering it elected Doug Mastriano not a whole lot has changed.

This was my first thought as well given the rurals remain a hotbed (York race riots, the Klan still trying to organize around Gettysburg) however Altoona was just as if not more of a center for white supremacy and doesn’t follow the same voting patterns.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(^ With 2020 Presidential results)



(^ With county lines so you can see the splits)

This is the map I'm submitting directly to the PA Supreme Court for consideration during their mapping deliberation.  Relatively partisan balanced map that strengthens minority representation in the Philly area.  Drawn with complete disregard to incumbent residences, which shows, as there are 3 new open seats from redistricting (4 open seats with Doyle's retirement), and 4 sets of double-bunked reps.  2020 Census and President numbers:

District 1 (Evans):  51.3% VAP Black --> 53.3% VAP Black / 91.3% D --> 89.2% D

District 2 (Open/Formerly Boyle):  59.7% VAP Minority --> 61.5% VAP Minority / 70.2% D --> 76.3% D

District 3 (Boyle/Fitzpatrick):  52.4% D --> 51.3% D

District 4 (Dean):  61.5% D --> 63.4% D

District 5 (Scanlon):  65.1% D --> 60.6% D

District 6 (Houlahan):  56.9% D --> 54.4% D

District 7 (Wild):  51.8% D --> 50.1% D

District 8 (Cartwright):  51.7% R --> 51.3% R

District 9 (Keller/Meuser):  64.5% R --> 68% R

District 10 (Smucker):  60.2% R --> 59.9% R

District 11 (Perry):  50.7% R --> 51.2% R

District 12 (Joyce):  71.6% R --> 71.0% R

District 13 (Open/Formerly Reschenthaler):  63.2% R --> 66.7% R

District 14 (Kelly/Thompson):  71.2% R --> 67.9% R

District 15 (Open/Formerly Kelly):  58.7% R --> 58.5% R

District 16 (Doyle):  64.5% D --> 61.1% D

District 17 (Lamb/Reschenthaler):  50.7% D --> 51.2% D

Population deviation is below 1,000 for every district, with District 16 being within 6 of the ideal district population.  17 county splits compared to 18 on the current map, with no county being split more then twice (the only 3 counties split twice are Montgomery, Philadelphia [which has to be split at least twice], and York).  This map partially reunites Berks and Butler counties by only splitting them between 2 districts each instead of the current map splitting them between 3 districts each.  Zero split precincts and 6 split municipalities across the entire state, and I increased the number of districts contained within a single county to 4, by getting rid of the unnecessary Berks strip in the 4th District.

I could have reduced county splits to 16 and municipal splits to 0 if I was willing to accept greater population variance, but I feel 1,000 is a good target to go by.

Overall, these districts are:

2020 Pres:  9D/8R
2020 AG:  10D/7R
2018 Sen:  11D/6R
2018 Gov:  12D/5R
2016 Pres:  8D/9R
2016 Sen:  7D/10R
2016 AG:  10D/7R

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7207d2a4-a192-4f72-890f-38bce911db37

Thoughts?   

I like it! It's quite elegant overall.

[cvparty]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

Interesting, it didn't feel much more dense than Lower Merion and demographically it feels pretty similar. Well anyway I just did this for fun and it doesn't really matter in the end.

[cvparty]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

Interesting, it didn't feel much more dense than Lower Merion and demographically it feels pretty similar. Well anyway I just did this for fun and it doesn't really matter in the end.

You're right that they're demographically similar. It's not bad per se but you don't really want the Montco district to effectively be pushing the NE Philly district further from Philly itself while also pushing it past Lower Bucks

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

Interesting, it didn't feel much more dense than Lower Merion and demographically it feels pretty similar. Well anyway I just did this for fun and it doesn't really matter in the end.

You're right that they're demographically similar. It's not bad per se but you don't really want the Montco district to effectively be pushing the NE Philly district further from Philly itself while also pushing it past Lower Bucks

Fair enough the lower montco district would then pick more upscale areas in Middle Bucks. This moves the swing Philly district to biden +10.  I think its D enough where Boyle goes for it except maybe if Fitz runs there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about something like this pertaining to our Philly convo from earlier?



3 way Bucks split:

[lfromnj]

What about something like this pertaining to our Philly convo from earlier?



3 way Bucks split:

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

About Philly, Its a thought experiment, just use county lines, I guess the first one doesn't add any extra splits though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about something like this pertaining to our Philly convo from earlier?



3 way Bucks split:

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

About Philly, Its a thought experiment, just use county lines, I guess the first one doesn't add any extra splits though.

Yeah Pittsburg I kinda rushed but I feel like there's no ideal solution. Pittsburg Proper + Suburban is almost exactly the right size for 2 districts. I didn't want to split Pittsburg so my options is I have to put it with one "side" metro district. The other option is to just pack downtown Pittsburg and pair suburbs with rurals which doesn't seem right either.

I would say it's different than Cinci because in Cinci you can create a downtown Cinci district and a suburban Cinci district far more naturally without needing any weird arms since Cinci is literally in a corner. Pittsburg has pretty even suburbs on all sides of it. I think about it more like Columbus

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about something like this pertaining to our Philly convo from earlier?



3 way Bucks split:

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

About Philly, Its a thought experiment, just use county lines, I guess the first one doesn't add any extra splits though.

Yeah Pittsburg I kinda rushed but I feel like there's no ideal solution. Pittsburg Proper + Suburban is almost exactly the right size for 2 districts. I didn't want to split Pittsburg so my options is I have to put it with one "side" metro district. The other option is to just pack downtown Pittsburg and pair suburbs with rurals which doesn't seem right either.

I would say it's different than Cinci because in Cinci you can create a downtown Cinci district and a suburban Cinci district far more naturally without needing any weird arms since Cinci is literally in a corner. Pittsburg has pretty even suburbs on all sides of it.

This is what happens if Pittsburg is paired with the NorthWestern district instead. I like this map better I think.

[Boss_Rahm]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district. The portions of Delaware are actually a bit more red than Chester but it should be Safe D at this point.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

Yes there are distinctions between Lower, Middle, and Upper Bucks, but IMO they form a better COI together than with the surrounding areas. Bucks is older, whiter, and more auto-oriented than Montco or NE Philly. The Bucks County Courier Times is the local paper of record, and of course they vote for the same county government. I see the argument for the more affluent Central Bucks-Montco district and the Lower Bucks-NE Philly cop-portunity district, but on the other hand I don't think residents of Lower Merion would see the logic in sharing a district with New Hope.

[Boss_Rahm]

I have a new favorite map I've drawn, and this one takes a different approach in SEPA. Partisan data is Biden-Trump.



District 3 remains majority-Black by VAP and CVAP, but districts 2 and 5 are now both majority-minority by VAP and 45% minority by CVAP. The idea here is that if Boyle is going to represent the 2nd anyway, you might as well add another rep that needs to be responsive to a majority nonwhite constituency. The 4th then takes an unfamiliar shape but it can be justified as following the course of the Schuylkill Valley. Biden won this district by just under 10%

[TML]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

[lfromnj]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what they want but both are gerrymanders.

[cvparty]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

[lfromnj]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

Here's actually a pretty similar analogy. Let's say that FL 05 isn't needed. How should the Jacksonville metro (red leaning metro with almost exactly 2 seats worth of population) be drawn? Desantis drew a pretty compact map based on a natural geographic boundary which is the St.John's river. It doesn't really split the core black community although it reduces it a bit. It's still a gerrymander and a Half donut option makes way more sense with one district based in most of duval and then a remainder district. I used Cincinatti though because both are similar size.

[cvparty]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

Here's actually a pretty similar analogy. Let's say that FL 05 isn't needed. How should the Jacksonville metro (red leaning metro with almost exactly 2 seats worth of population) be drawn? Desantis drew a pretty compact map based on a natural geographic boundary which is the St.John's river. It doesn't really split the core black community although it reduces it a bit. It's still a gerrymander and a Half donut option makes way more sense with one district based in most of duval and then a remainder district. I used Cincinatti though because both are similar size.

That's a better analogy, though the Jax metro area has its own idiosyncrasies (why is this monster city as big as Orange County CA lmfao). Tbh the DeSantis configuration in Jax isn't actually terrible (I'd just switch Clay for more of Duval) and it's honestly better than all the maps in this thread that keep snatching Penn Hills and other proximal suburbs from Pittsburgh

I think Indy is pretty analogous too; in that case putting North Indy with Hamilton/Boone/Hendricks naturally happens to produce a Biden seat. Sometimes Dems benefit and sometimes Reps do, effectively neutralizing each other. Drawing maps with predetermined outcomes usually results in a pretty ugly headache. Just do North Hills-Beaver-Butler and call it a day lol. It'd only be narrowly GOP and trending Democratic anyway

[Sol]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

Here's actually a pretty similar analogy. Let's say that FL 05 isn't needed. How should the Jacksonville metro (red leaning metro with almost exactly 2 seats worth of population) be drawn? Desantis drew a pretty compact map based on a natural geographic boundary which is the St.John's river. It doesn't really split the core black community although it reduces it a bit. It's still a gerrymander and a Half donut option makes way more sense with one district based in most of duval and then a remainder district. I used Cincinatti though because both are similar size.

That's a better analogy, though the Jax metro area has its own idiosyncrasies (why is this monster city as big as Orange County CA lmfao). Tbh the DeSantis configuration in Jax isn't actually terrible (I'd just switch Clay for more of Duval) and it's honestly better than all the maps in this thread that keep snatching Penn Hills and other proximal suburbs from Pittsburgh

I think Indy is pretty analogous too; in that case putting North Indy with Hamilton/Boone/Hendricks naturally happens to produce a Biden seat. Sometimes Dems benefit and sometimes Reps do, effectively neutralizing each other. Drawing maps with predetermined outcomes usually results in a pretty ugly headache. Just do North Hills-Beaver-Butler and call it a day lol. It'd only be narrowly GOP and trending Democratic anyway

Agreed--all the attempts to create two Biden districts in SWPA are pretty dumb. Just suck it up and draw a Democratic pack--you know it's better districting!

[BoiseBoy]

When is the court picking a map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

When is the court picking a map?

Yesterday