2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[cvparty]

Since everybody is in on it I guess I'll post my map. I tried putting Chesco with Delco since they're so similar demographically instead Lancaster or Berks (which just aren't similar to Chesco in any way). It actually works out really well and places together similar areas such as eastern Delco+West Philly (creates a second AA seat), NE Philly+Lower Bucks, Montco/Central Bucks, and Upper Bucks/Montco+Berks. There's an inevitable GOP tilt, but CDs 4/10/17 look like they'll be competitive

I have 2020 numbers but I'll save that for later

[cvparty]

I like the shapes, but when two counties share the same two districts, it is always possible to shift population to reduce the number of chops. If the PA court looks at this coming cycle with the same methodology that was given to the special master, they'll call that type of sharing into question.

In your map both York and Cumberland have parts of 10 and 13. Both Bucks and Montgomery have parts of 1 and 4.

my main goal in the map is to keep together COIs. bucks is comprised of three parts that are each very distinct from each other. i prioritize COIs slightly over following an absolute adherence to county lines, which can also mess up compactness. i do follow county lines for the most part, just not to the absolute maximum

[cvparty]

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

honestly don’t care about incumbency; my map is exploring a fair map without conditions. also, it becomes harder and harder to preserve the same configurations as a state continues to bleed seats. bucks county is not an inherent COI. also, i didn’t remove a minority access seat lol? the map has two majority AA seats

[cvparty]

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

honestly don’t care about incumbency; my map is exploring a fair map without conditions. also, it becomes harder and harder to preserve the same configurations as a state continues to bleed seats. bucks county is not an inherent COI. also, i didn’t remove a minority access seat lol? the map has two majority AA seats

This map isn't fair though, cutting Berks three ways is a nonstarter, and Delaware can and should be kept whole. A CD connecting Reading with Berks should just not happen, they have little in common.

Think you mean Bucks, but I promise you Delco is not a COI, what do Darby and Newtown have in common at all. Same for Levittown and Buckingham in Bucks County. Treating highly populous counties as monolithic is a bit reductive. I'd also say a CD connecting Reading with Chesco just shouldn't happen, because they have little in common

[cvparty]

Carbon County is literally in the Lehigh Valley at least according to the Census CSA. Pretty clear it should be there.

I think it's better to keep Carbon with Schuylkill and the coal region, plus it's not populous enough to complete a CD anyway

[cvparty]

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

honestly don’t care about incumbency; my map is exploring a fair map without conditions. also, it becomes harder and harder to preserve the same configurations as a state continues to bleed seats. bucks county is not an inherent COI. also, i didn’t remove a minority access seat lol? the map has two majority AA seats

This map isn't fair though, cutting Berks three ways is a nonstarter, and Delaware can and should be kept whole. A CD connecting Reading with Berks should just not happen, they have little in common.

Think you mean Bucks, but I promise you Delco is not a COI, what do Darby and Newtown have in common at all. Same for Levittown and Buckingham in Bucks County. Treating highly populous counties as monolithic is a bit reductive. I'd also say a CD connecting Reading with Chesco just shouldn't happen, because they have little in common

Yeah but cutting Bucks is one of those things that just never happens, even the ugly GOP gerrymander of 2010 left Bucks intact. Also there are ways to split Chester into north and South, without cutting Bucks three ways.

I'm not cutting Chesco because my point is not to cut Chesco lol, as it's actually a cohesive community and goes with the western half of Delco more than anything. The configurement also allows for a second AA seat instead of a wishy-washy minority coalition seat, and allows Philly to be divided along logical lines rather than cutting through Center City and South Philly along the Delaware. If really preferred, one could reduce the county splits to 16, but I don't like it as much as it's worse from a COI and compactness standpoint

[cvparty]

I'm not cutting Chesco because my point is not to cut Chesco lol, as it's actually a cohesive community and goes with the western half of Delco more than anything.

I actually agree with this but why not take MontCo south/west of the Schuylkill too? It's all Main Line. 

I've considered that but I've never found a way to fit that in since it lies just beyond the county line, it'd complicate the other districts and bring down the AA population in CD5 too much

[cvparty]

Splitting Bucks is a bad idea, was a bad idea, and will always be a bad idea in my book. It's not something I ever will do in a serious map and any post about a map that has such a split will not get a recommend from me, per a matter of principle. (unless it's about how it's a terrible idea)

One of Montgomery, Bucks, or Chester will have to be split. Why is it inherently fairer to split Chester or Montgomery than Bucks?

1. it is...erm...extremely weird, never seriously floated IRL in any redistricting plan that came close to going into effect.
2. for all the talk of "oh, Bucks isn't a single CoI", Montgomery by that same yardstick is even less of a cohesive CoI, and Chester is no more of a single CoI by these metrics than Bucks is.
3. Bucks is just short of quota for a CD. I consider it highly unelegant to split it. Better an extra chop of Philly than a macro-split of an otherwise whole county.
4. Geography basically dooms at least one of either Chester or MontCo to not be whole in a CD or have a whole CD within them. Geography likely dooms Delaware to being split in some fashion.
5. Splitting Bucks means you have to do weird things to northern Bucks, which either has to go with the Lehigh Valley (yuck), or northern Montgomery and Berks (also yuck).

1. Not really an argument in itself
2. Bucks is more cohesive than Chesco??
3. 130,000 people isn't really "just short," and this becomes more salient with every passing census
4. Do agree that Bucks is more geographically cornered, but it doesn't mean it can't be split, plus demography exists too
5. Reading is definitely more connected to the Pottstown area than to West Chester. It makes more sense demographically to put Berks with upper Montco, even Upper Bucks than to put Chesco with Lancaster or Chesco with Berks (extreme yuck)

[cvparty]

everyone hates harrisburg i guess

[cvparty]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

[cvparty]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

There's actually like 3 layers of Bucks. Overall any split of Bucks in most cases would just split other counties and everyone likes their county lines over there. So ergo little reason to split Bucks. As it stands most maps would probably start from SEPA  as PA01 anyway.

There is a Minnesota style map argument to split Bucks in the 3 ways similar to how Anoka county gets split 3 ways for example but it doesn't work well for PA overall.

 

Here's a map that doesn't fully ignore county lines but places flavor of a district ahead of that.
Chester goes with Upper Delaware which is mostly just an upscale district Dem trending district.  After that lower Delaware goes with West Philly for a 47% black VAP district. Then Philly gets another 46% black VAP district. Anyone from PA forgive me if I split Philly wards in a terrible manner I just did this map as a thought experiment . Not actually proposing this.

The remainder of East Philladelphia goes with Lower bucks for an interesting "urban" WWC swing district. Biden +8.1 down from Clinton +8.8. After that Middle Bucks goes with most of Lower Montgomery for a white liberal district along with that part of NW philly which seems to go well with the district? Anyone forgive me if that area is not like Lower merion. Lastly a Biden +0 district with Upper Bucks, Upper Montgomery County and Berks. Probably an Obama district in 2012 as well. Basically partisanwise it doesn't switch to much overall but everyone would scream anyway.

Both the Delaware Philly district and Bucks Philly do include a few upscale suburbs in each of their districts although they mostly seem working class.

I would drop the third split of Philly; it's a lot more dense than Montco and doing so would keep more of NW Philly, NE Philly and central Bucks respectively together. Center City and South Philly are both split right down the middle when you can very easily put all of the former with North Philly and the latter with West Philly

Interesting, it didn't feel much more dense than Lower Merion and demographically it feels pretty similar. Well anyway I just did this for fun and it doesn't really matter in the end.

You're right that they're demographically similar. It's not bad per se but you don't really want the Montco district to effectively be pushing the NE Philly district further from Philly itself while also pushing it past Lower Bucks

[cvparty]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

[cvparty]

Explain why what the Ohio GOP did with Cincinatti(city of 300k ) and placing it with its conservative exurbs instead of inner ring suburbs is a gerrymander but what you did with pittsburgh(city of 300k) is fair?

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren’t really comparable politically. In Cincinnati a fair configuration would have one strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, while a pro-R gerrymander would have no D-leaning districts in the area. A more apt comparison for Pittsburgh would be Columbus: in both of these areas, pro-R gerrymanders would have a single strongly D-leaning district surrounded by several strongly R-leaning districts, whereas a fair configuration would have two D-leaning districts (one of which leans somewhat strongly D and the other less strongly D).

Why should a 2nd be D leaning? Even with the Dem favorable map of the PA supreme court one is barely D leaning. Both districts already have to expand and why should the suburban one expand more into the most D parts of the urban districts?

The fact is the same, Democrats want to do to Cincinatti what R's what to do with Pittsburgh, split off inner ring suburban areas or the city itself in order to get an extra seat. The PASC court can do what is needed but both are gerrymanders.

yeah i fail to see the analogy when the partisan makeup between the pittsburgh and columbus areas is about as similar as georgia and colorado….

Here's actually a pretty similar analogy. Let's say that FL 05 isn't needed. How should the Jacksonville metro (red leaning metro with almost exactly 2 seats worth of population) be drawn? Desantis drew a pretty compact map based on a natural geographic boundary which is the St.John's river. It doesn't really split the core black community although it reduces it a bit. It's still a gerrymander and a Half donut option makes way more sense with one district based in most of duval and then a remainder district. I used Cincinatti though because both are similar size.

That's a better analogy, though the Jax metro area has its own idiosyncrasies (why is this monster city as big as Orange County CA lmfao). Tbh the DeSantis configuration in Jax isn't actually terrible (I'd just switch Clay for more of Duval) and it's honestly better than all the maps in this thread that keep snatching Penn Hills and other proximal suburbs from Pittsburgh

I think Indy is pretty analogous too; in that case putting North Indy with Hamilton/Boone/Hendricks naturally happens to produce a Biden seat. Sometimes Dems benefit and sometimes Reps do, effectively neutralizing each other. Drawing maps with predetermined outcomes usually results in a pretty ugly headache. Just do North Hills-Beaver-Butler and call it a day lol. It'd only be narrowly GOP and trending Democratic anyway