2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1485831919497621507

Well these are fun.

[Oryxslayer]

In this instance I am reminded how in 2018 the Supreme Court's special master basically did his own thing and appeared to ignore the submissions from all formal political actors.

[Boss_Rahm]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

[kwabbit]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

Ehh, Mike Kelly is the sorta guy whom Dems wouldn’t give a second thought to screwing over in general.  He’s a lowkey racist (at best) ultra-Trumpy backbencher with several scandals from one of the less politically influential parts of the state who lacks the ability to do much for anyone even if the House flips.  I also don’t get the sense that he’s particularly well-liked.

The thing that will likely save him is that something very similar to his current district pretty much draws itself on most maps, regardless of whom said map is intended to benefit.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1485831919497621507

Well these are fun.

Yeah, I don’t think the Court wants to do the Democratic Party’s work for them with regard to packing or cracking PA-1.

[Torie]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/was-2020-a-breakout-year-for-amish-voters-heres-what-the-numbers-show/article_f77af684-32a7-11eb-b3ec-13a56697652f.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

The Persily map from 2018 had no qualms messing with incumbents. I don't see why it should be different this time.

And honestly, it shouldn't. Drawing districts to favor incumbents is a disgusting subversion of the democratic process.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/was-2020-a-breakout-year-for-amish-voters-heres-what-the-numbers-show/article_f77af684-32a7-11eb-b3ec-13a56697652f.html

It's an increase of a couple of thousand votes. The large majority of Amish people do not vote. That may be changing, it's a little early to tell, but it remains the case.

[lfromnj]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

The Persily map from 2018 had no qualms messing with incumbents. I don't see why it should be different this time.

And honestly, it shouldn't. Drawing districts to favor incumbents is a disgusting subversion of the democratic process.

Except the Conor Lamb mander who had a decent amount of name rec at that point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

The Persily map from 2018 had no qualms messing with incumbents. I don't see why it should be different this time.

And honestly, it shouldn't. Drawing districts to favor incumbents is a disgusting subversion of the democratic process.

Except the Conor Lamb mander who had a decent amount of name rec at that point.

This seat was definitely drawn to be a Dem opportunity seat but I'm not sure if it was for Lamb as such? Most of the seat Lamb originally won ended up in the solid-R Southwest district instead.

[lfromnj]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

The Persily map from 2018 had no qualms messing with incumbents. I don't see why it should be different this time.

And honestly, it shouldn't. Drawing districts to favor incumbents is a disgusting subversion of the democratic process.

Except the Conor Lamb mander who had a decent amount of name rec at that point.

This seat was definitely drawn to be a Dem opportunity seat but I'm not sure if it was for Lamb as such? Most of the seat Lamb originally won ended up in the solid-R Southwest district instead.

It could have been slightly more dem friendly and compact ny just drawing north. It was certainly made for Conor Lamb.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Are these godawful splits of Bucks designed to disadvantage Fitz or something?

Both configurations of the 10th are nonsensical. It should be all of Dauphin and Cumberland plus whatever chunk of York, including York itself, is needed.

For the 17th, they should honestly just take the L instead of seemingly going out of their way to carve up everything. It's possible to have a Pittsburgh + northern townships seat and a southern townships + Beaver [+ however much of Lawrence and Mercer is needed] seat that would be competitive, but I don't think any of them would pass muster on metrics other than competitiveness.

[GALeftist]

I'm no fan of Fitzpatrick but I really don't like those Bucks splits. Makes a lot more sense to just wait him out and/or hope he gets primaried imo

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm no fan of Fitzpatrick but I really don't like those Bucks splits. Makes a lot more sense to just wait him out and/or hope he gets primaried imo

I hope you enjoy Congresswoman Martina White, then.

[Boss_Rahm]

Full collection of maps submitted to the court in this thread

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1486159847833935881

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting looking at the various configuration replacements of 4/6/10/11. Some maps seem to keep the status quo. Others attempt to make 10 and/or 11 more exurban Philly seats, sometimes taking in significant portions of Chester and Montgomery rather than a Harrisburg based 10. Ultimately any fair map would prolly keep 4 and 6 D leaning and 10 and 11 R leaning, but still interesting

[If my soul was made of stone]

Full collection of maps submitted to the court in this thread

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1486159847833935881

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1486161443670089734

Being able to recognize the shape of Pittsburgh in the 17th (16th? I can't tell which number is meant for which) here does not inspire confidence.

[Torie]

LOL. It apparently is impossible for the human species to avoid descending into the pit of partisan hackery and gerrymandering while claiming it is all about good government and the public interest. Most of the maps I glanced at made we want to laugh and cry at the same time. They are all going to hell, metaphorically speaking, where the Pubs have to listen to Kamala Harris species 24/7, and the Dems Trump speeches. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

To me a lot of it comes from 1) simple inertia, 2) it simply not being necessary in the math, and 3) the fact that areas around it either vary a lot internally (MontCo) or are opposite to that (NW Philly, Lehigh Valley).
There's also the fact that Bucks is just large enough to render itself almost a CD to itself, and the history of districts running from MontCo to Philly. Splitting Bucks just isn't necessary, never has been, and there are good alternatives.
Compare that to MontCo - in the center of it all and relatively easier to split.

[Torie]

Can someone explain why there’s such a stigma around splitting Bucks, when other counties around Philly that are simillar in size can be split like 3 ways no problem? One could argue that the Northern and South end of Bucks are very different.

To me a lot of it comes from 1) simple inertia, 2) it simply not being necessary in the math, and 3) the fact that areas around it either vary a lot internally (MontCo) or are opposite to that (NW Philly, Lehigh Valley).
There's also the fact that Bucks is just large enough to render itself almost a CD to itself, and the history of districts running from MontCo to Philly. Splitting Bucks just isn't necessary, never has been, and there are good alternatives.
Compare that to MontCo - in the center of it all and relatively easier to split.

In addition to the points you listed, Bucks is also on a state line on two of its four sides. It is also relatively homogeneous. It also is highly competitive politically, and perhaps more elastic than average (not sure about the latter point). Chopping it looks instantly suspect as part of a nefarious gerrymandering plot.

[BoiseBoy]

Wolf has vetoed the map. Now it goes to the courts.

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1486484694439010311?s=20

[lfromnj]

By the does anyone know more about the York-Gettysburg Carlisle area historically? Why was this area relatively Democratic relative to PA in the late 1800's/early 1900's? I assume the same type of settlers?

[Torie]

By the does anyone know more about the York-Gettysburg Carlisle area historically? Why was this area relatively Democratic relative to PA in the late 1800's/early 1900's? I assume the same type of settlers?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania