2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Boss_Rahm]

Hate to beat this CRR drum here, but imagine what could be done with ~28 seats?

PA has a problem since all of its D votes are packed into tight little circles, so larger districts done without spaghetti strips drowns them all out. Smaller districts on the other hand make things more interesting.

Here's a 16-12 D gerrymander I've drawn (using 2010 population figures). There are just 26 county splits and Pittsburgh is kept whole.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

[Boss_Rahm]

Hate to beat this CRR drum here, but imagine what could be done with ~28 seats?

PA has a problem since all of its D votes are packed into tight little circles, so larger districts done without spaghetti strips drowns them all out. Smaller districts on the other hand make things more interesting.

Here's a 16-12 D gerrymander I've drawn (using 2010 population figures). There are just 26 county splits and Pittsburgh is kept whole.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

Interesting. I would have expected you feeding Pittsburgh in to areas farther north, since northern Allegheny is the most R area in the county. But the way you have it also makes sense.

You're right, I suppose a more effective gerrymander would have a district snaking around from Beaver County to the Mon River valley. I did want to maintain some amount of compactness in my map.

[Boss_Rahm]

Hate to beat this CRR drum here, but imagine what could be done with ~28 seats?

PA has a problem since all of its D votes are packed into tight little circles, so larger districts done without spaghetti strips drowns them all out. Smaller districts on the other hand make things more interesting.

Here's a 16-12 D gerrymander I've drawn (using 2010 population figures). There are just 26 county splits and Pittsburgh is kept whole.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

Interesting. I would have expected you feeding Pittsburgh in to areas farther north, since northern Allegheny is the most R area in the county. But the way you have it also makes sense.

You're right, I suppose a more effective gerrymander would have a district snaking around from Beaver County to the Mon River valley. I did want to maintain some amount of compactness in my map.

Is it really the case that this would hurt compactness that much though?

Okay, I made your suggested changes in Allegheny County (and fiddled with Chester County while I was at it). I'm happy with this version.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

[Boss_Rahm]

Hate to beat this CRR drum here, but imagine what could be done with ~28 seats?

PA has a problem since all of its D votes are packed into tight little circles, so larger districts done without spaghetti strips drowns them all out. Smaller districts on the other hand make things more interesting.

Here's a 16-12 D gerrymander I've drawn (using 2010 population figures). There are just 26 county splits and Pittsburgh is kept whole.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

Interesting. I would have expected you feeding Pittsburgh in to areas farther north, since northern Allegheny is the most R area in the county. But the way you have it also makes sense.

You're right, I suppose a more effective gerrymander would have a district snaking around from Beaver County to the Mon River valley. I did want to maintain some amount of compactness in my map.

Is it really the case that this would hurt compactness that much though?

Okay, I made your suggested changes in Allegheny County (and fiddled with Chester County while I was at it). I'm happy with this version.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/856864b1-aeb8-4996-ab0c-124dc75cb423

iirc, didn't the old map have a Pittsburgh CD that is D+17? Meaning this lowers the Dem PVI a few points (not that it's a bad thing. It's a good thing)?

I didn't keep track of the Pittsburgh CD, but the two suburban CDs each moved about a point left, so that sounds right.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's a 9-7-1 D map with 16 county chops. Absolutely no way this gets drawn, but wanted to make the best D map I could. The key is rearranging NEPA into a Lackawanna-Monroe-Northampton district and a Lehigh-Berks district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/60d2108f-98b7-4632-9e31-d278769cabbf

[Boss_Rahm]

Since you have been kind enough to let me quiz you on your maps, it's only fair that you get to poke at mine.

This is a very good map. My only quibble is probably the 3-way split of York. I would instead put a bit of northwestern Lancaster County in the 10th district, as that area is more closely tied to Harrisburg than to the city of Lancaster.

[Boss_Rahm]

I’m not going to lean too much on the choice of one word as I say something the poster is already aware of, but it’s always good to remember that the “natural” skew of large cities and “self-packing” are the result of decades of federal, state, local, and business policies that heavily restricted where people of color could live to a small number of communities, so a neutral political process that perpetuates the impact of that ghettoization by wasting tens of thousands of votes in compact but lopsidedly uncompetitive districts, reducing political power for the minority group per individual, is not neutral at all.

This cannot be repeated enough.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's my proposal for Pennsylvania, which I think has a lot going for it:
- There are just 12 (!) county chops, but the population deviations are all less than +/- 1,000
- Greater Pittsburgh keeps 3 whole districts
- Exurban Baltimore gets its own district
- There's continuity in the suburban Philadelphia districts, with compactness arguably improving
- Both Philadelphia districts are 60% minority and 40% Black
- Carbon County joins the Lehigh Valley district
DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3108f1e7-7e09-49bd-83f8-4ecdd85acfd6

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's my proposal for Pennsylvania, which I think has a lot going for it:
- There are just 12 (!) county chops, but the population deviations are all less than +/- 1,000
- Greater Pittsburgh keeps 3 whole districts
- Exurban Baltimore gets its own district
- There's continuity in the suburban Philadelphia districts, with compactness arguably improving
- Both Philadelphia districts are 60% minority and 40% Black
- Carbon County joins the Lehigh Valley district
DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3108f1e7-7e09-49bd-83f8-4ecdd85acfd6

Not bad at all, though I don't love separating Cumberland and Dauphin.

Me neither, though honestly I've yet to see a SCPA configuration that I like. For this map I started with the York-Adams district and drew from there. From what I've heard the rapid growth in those counties is due to proximity to Baltimore.

[Boss_Rahm]

Would that court have any pro-incumbent tendencies, i.e. giving Fitzpatrick redder parts of Montgomery/saving Lamb?

The court-appointed special master in 2018 seemed to make minimizing county/municipal splits the top priority, with partisan proportionality a secondary goal. There wasn't a particular effort to protect incumbents - in fact, Fitzpatrick's district took in bluer parts of MontCo compared to the pre-2018 lines.

[Boss_Rahm]

Would that court have any pro-incumbent tendencies, i.e. giving Fitzpatrick redder parts of Montgomery/saving Lamb?

The court-appointed special master in 2018 seemed to make minimizing county/municipal splits the top priority, with partisan proportionality a secondary goal. There wasn't a particular effort to protect incumbents - in fact, Fitzpatrick's district took in bluer parts of MontCo compared to the pre-2018 lines.

Well, I would expect any marginal district in PA to have gotten more blue as they drew a non-gerrymandered map. I guess the question is completely forward looking as the court has never drawn a map from scratch, as in never without the purpose of resolving a partisan gerrymander.

Here's the thing - Fitzpatrick's old district was the rare one that wasn't gerrymandered. It was compact and contained all of Bucks County. No one would have batted an eye if the court had kept that district exactly the same. Instead, the special master made a conscious choice to favor partisan proportionality at the expense of incumbent protection.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's a pass at a incumbent protection PA map which uses Dean leaving for a Senate campaign to its advantage. You still have to screw Cartwright or Wild though, but that's basically necessary given geography, and it replaces them with a Reading based swing seat.

Are you thinking Houlahan would run in the Lower Montgomery seat? It overlaps very little with her current district.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's my shot at a balanced 5D/7Swing/5R map:

This is certainly a good map from a COI perspective (assuming Wilkes-Barre is in the 8th, I can't quite tell from the image). I do think most of those "Swing" districts will vote R most of the time.

[Boss_Rahm]

Thank you!  I was disappointed that I couldn't really find a way to keep the West Shore suburbs with Harrisburg, but honestly I'm not sure they would mind being separated.     xD

You and I both went for a "Keystone Corridor" district rather than pairing Dauphin with Cumberland. So no complaints there!

[Boss_Rahm]

I went ahead and drew a Congressional map based on the 2019 ACS data. I took an unorthodox approach in SEPA - butchering Montgomery in order to keep the other collar counties whole.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/37aa567f-8f21-4da3-a468-b814179c05e6

[Boss_Rahm]

Anyone else drawing state House maps?

Here's a map I drew tabula rasa, aiming for compactness and respecting county lines.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/022ab1b1-f183-40bf-b748-f1d71e8d7928

[Boss_Rahm]

Here are the number of federal and state level districts each county and region is entitled to:

County    Population    US House   PA Senate   PA House
            
Berks    428,849    0.561   1.649   6.695
Bucks    646,538    0.845   2.486   10.094
Chester    534,413    0.699   2.055   8.343
Delaware    576,830    0.754   2.218   9.006
Montgomery    856,553    1.120   3.294   13.373
Philadelphia    1,603,797    2.097   6.167   25.039
SEPA    4,646,980    6.076   17.869   72.549
            
Lackawanna    215,896    0.282   0.830   3.371
Luzerne    325,594    0.426   1.252   5.083
Monroe    168,327    0.220   0.647   2.628
Pike    58,535    0.077   0.225   0.914
Susquehanna    38,434    0.050   0.148   0.600
Wayne    51,155    0.067   0.197   0.799
Wyoming    26,069    0.034   0.100   0.407
NEPA    884,010    1.156   3.399   13.801
            
Carbon    64,749    0.085   0.249   1.011
Lehigh    374,557    0.490   1.440   5.848
Northampton    312,951    0.409   1.203   4.886
Lehigh Valley    752,257    0.984   2.893   11.744
            
Adams    103,852    0.136   0.399   1.621
Cumberland    259,469    0.339   0.998   4.051
Dauphin    286,401    0.374   1.101   4.471
Lancaster    552,984    0.723   2.126   8.633
Lebanon    143,257    0.187   0.551   2.237
Perry    45,842    0.060   0.176   0.716
York    456,438    0.597   1.755   7.126
SCPA    1,848,243    2.416   7.107   28.855
            
Allegheny    1,250,578    1.635   4.809   19.524
Beaver    168,215    0.220   0.647   2.626
Butler    193,763    0.253   0.745   3.025
Fayette    128,804    0.168   0.495   2.011
Greene    35,954    0.047   0.138   0.561
Washington    209,349    0.274   0.805   3.268
Westmoreland    354,663    0.464   1.364   5.537
SWPA    2,341,326    3.061   9.003   36.553
            
Armstrong    65,558    0.086   0.252   1.024
Bedford    47,577    0.062   0.183   0.743
Blair    122,822    0.161   0.472   1.918
Bradford    59,967    0.078   0.231   0.936
Cambria    133,472    0.175   0.513   2.084
Cameron    4,547    0.006   0.017   0.071
Centre    158,172    0.207   0.608   2.469
Clarion    37,241    0.049   0.143   0.581
Clearfield    80,562    0.105   0.310   1.258
Clinton    37,450    0.049   0.144   0.585
Columbia    64,727    0.085   0.249   1.011
Crawford    83,938    0.110   0.323   1.310
Elk    30,990    0.041   0.119   0.484
Erie    270,876    0.354   1.042   4.229
Forest    6,973    0.009   0.027   0.109
Franklin    155,932    0.204   0.600   2.434
Fulton    14,556    0.019   0.056   0.227
Huntingdon    44,092    0.058   0.170   0.688
Indiana    83,246    0.109   0.320   1.300
Jefferson    44,492    0.058   0.171   0.695
Juniata    23,509    0.031   0.090   0.367
Lawrence    86,070    0.113   0.331   1.344
Lycoming    114,188    0.149   0.439   1.783
McKean    40,432    0.053   0.155   0.631
Mercer    110,652    0.145   0.425   1.728
Mifflin    46,143    0.060   0.177   0.720
Montour    18,136    0.024   0.070   0.283
Northumberland    91,647    0.120   0.352   1.431
Potter    16,396    0.021   0.063   0.256
Schuylkill    143,049    0.187   0.550   2.233
Snyder    39,736    0.052   0.153   0.620
Somerset    74,129    0.097   0.285   1.157
Sullivan    5,840    0.008   0.022   0.091
Tioga    41,045    0.054   0.158   0.641
Union    42,681    0.056   0.164   0.666
Venango    50,454    0.066   0.194   0.788
Warren    38,587    0.050   0.148   0.602
Central PA    2,529,884    3.308   9.728   39.497

[Boss_Rahm]

With the 2020 Census data now available, I drew a nonpartisan map for which I'd be able to justify each decision.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/74e0c458-f669-494a-980e-01ea3fb48f2e

If you want to follow along, here are the steps I took to arrive at this map:

1.   Assign every county to a district or grouping of multiple districts
a.   Group together metro areas (using Census CSA definitions) larger than 1 district
i.   Metro Philadelphia (Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia) will contain 6 districts
ii.   Metro Pittsburgh (Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland), plus Greene (which would otherwise be isolated), will contain 3 districts
iii.   Metro Harrisburg (Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, Perry, and York), plus Lancaster (which would otherwise be stuck between Metro Philadelphia and Metro Harrisburg, and is more culturally connected to the latter), will contain 2 districts
b.   Starting from the corners of the state and moving inward, group remaining counties into roughly district-sized groups, while avoiding splitting metro areas
i.   Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton counties get a district (Lehigh Valley)
ii.   Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming counties get a district (Wyoming Valley)
iii.   Armstrong, Clarion, Crawford, Erie, Forest, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, and Warren counties get a district (NWPA)
iv.   Bradford, Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Pike, Schuylkill, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, and Wayne counties get a district (E. Central PA)
v.   Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Indiana, Jefferson, McKean, and Potter counties get a district (W. Central PA)
vi.   Bedford, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, and Somerset counties get a district (smaller than the others because it will take on some population from the Metro Harrisburg grouping) (S. Central PA)
2.   Shift population between districts or district groupings so that each has a whole number of population quotas
a.   Metro Philadelphia has 57,790 more people than needed for 6 districts. The most exurban portion of Berks County will be moved to the Lehigh Valley district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Albany, Greenwich, Lenhartsville, Windsor, Hamburg, Maxatawny, Kutztown, Lyons, Tilden, Perry, Shoemakersville, Richmond, Fleetwood, Longswamp, Topton, Maidencreek, and Upper Bern are shifted into the Lehigh Valley district. Metro Philadelphia now has 508 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Ontelaunee is shifted into the Lehigh Valley district.
b.   The Lehigh Valley district now has 45,180 more people than needed. The most exurban portion of Carbon County will be moved to the Wyoming Valley district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Kidder, East Side, Penn Forest, Lehigh, Weatherly, Lausanne, Banks, Beaver Meadows, Packer, Jim Thorpe, Nesquehoning, Lansford, Summit Hill, Towamensing, Franklin, Parryville, and Weissport are shifted into the Wyoming Valley district. The Lehigh Valley district now has 2,216 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Lower Towamensing District North is shifted into the Wyoming Valley district. The Lehigh Valley district now has 467 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Lower Towamensing District South is shifted into the Wyoming Valley district.
c.   The Wyoming Valley district now has 16,206 more people than needed. To avoid splitting any more whole counties, part of Carbon County will be shifted into the E. Central PA district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Summit Hill, Lansford, Nesquehoning, Packer, Banks, Beaver Meadows, and Weatherly are shifted into the E. Central PA district. The Wyoming Valley district now has 22 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Banks is shifted back into the Wyoming Valley district.
d.   Metro Pittsburgh has 46,731 more people than needed for 3 districts. The most exurban portion of Butler County will be moved to the NWPA district, which will make both the Metro Pittsburgh grouping and the NWPA district more compact.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Harrisville, Mercer, Marion, Venango, Cherry Valley, Eau Claire, Allegheny, Slippery Rock, Cherry, Washington, Parker, Bruin, Worth, West Liberty, Brady, Clay, West Sunbury, Concord, Fairview, Petrolia, Karns City, Muddycreek, Portersville, Franklin, Center, Oakland, Chicora, and Donegal are shifted into the NWPA district. Metro Pittsburgh now has 666 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Prospect is shifted into the NWPA district.
e.   The NWPA district now has 32,220 more people than needed. The most southeastern portion of Armstrong County will be moved to the W. Central PA district, because this area is geographically the furthest from the City of Erie which anchors the NWPA district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Kiskiminetas, Apollo, North Apollo, Parks, South Bend, Burrell, Plumcreek, Elderton, Gilpin, Leechburg, Bethel, Manor, Manorville, Ford City, Ford Cliff, Kittanning Township, Rayburn, Valley, and Atwood are shifted into the W. Central PA district. The NWPA district now has 151 too many people.
ii.   Split a precint. Part of Cadogan is shifted into the W. Central PA district.
f.   The W. Central PA district now has 19,934 more people than needed. The most southeastern portion of Blair County will be moved to the S. Central PA district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population, to improve the compactness of that district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. North Woodbury, Martinsburg, Taylor, Roaring Spring, Huston, Woodbury, Williamsburg, Greenfield, and Freedom are shifted into the S. Central PA district. The W. Central PA district now has 233 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Catharine is shifted into the S. Central PA district.
g.   The E. Central PA district has 20,481 more people than needed. The most southwestern portion of Snyder County will be moved to the S. Central PA district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population, because this is the best option to retain the compactness of both districts.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. McClure, West Beaver, Spring, West Perry, Beaver, Beavertown, Adams, Perry, Franklin, Middleburg, Center, Chapman, Union, Washington, and Freeburg are shifted into the S. Central PA district. The E. Central PA district now has 55 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Union is shifted back into the E. Central PA district.
h.   Metro Harrisburg has 318,513 more people than needed for 2 districts. That amount of population needs to be shifted into the S. Central PA district, the last remaining district grouping that is off on population.
i.   Shift whole counties. Of the Metro Harrisburg counties that border the S. Central PA district, Adams and Perry are the most exurban, so they will be shifted first. Metro Harrisburg now has 168,819 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole municipalities. The westernmost portion of Cumberland County will be shifted to the S. Central PA district, which will make both the Metro Harrisburg grouping and the S. Central PA district more compact. Southampton, Shippensburg, Hopewell, Newburg, Upper Mifflin, Lower Mifflin, North Newtown, South Newtown, Newville, Cooke, Penn, West Pennsboro, Upper Frankford, Lower Frankford, Dickinson, South Middleton, Mount Holly Springs, Carlisle, North Middleton, Middlesex, Monroe, Silver Spring, Mechanicsburg, and Hampden are shifted into the S. Central PA district. Metro Harrisburg now has 1,485 too few people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Hampden’s 4th precinct is shifted back into the Metro Harrisburg grouping.
i.   The S. Central PA district now has the correct number of people.
3.   Assign every county within the remaining groupings to a district or grouping of multiple districts
a.   Metro Philadelphia
i.   The City of Philadelphia will contain 2 districts
ii.   Suburban Philadelphia (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and a portion of Berks) gets 4 districts, and will take on some population from Philadelphia County
b.   Metro Pittsburgh
i.   Allegheny County will contain a district (Urban Pittsburgh)
ii.   Fayette, Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland counties get a district (Exurban Pittsburgh)
iii.   Beaver County and part of Butler County get a district, which will take on some population from Allegheny County (Suburban Pittsburgh)
c.   Metro Harrisburg
i.   Lancaster and Lebanon counties get a district (Lancaster-Lebanon)
ii.   Dauphin and York counties and part of Cumberland County get a district (Harrisburg-York)
4.   Shift population between districts or district groupings so that each has a whole number of population quotas
a.   The City of Philadelphia has 74,067 more people than needed for 2 districts. The most suburban portion of Northeast Philadelphia will be moved to the Suburban Philadelphia grouping.
i.   Shift whole wards. Ward 58 is shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping. The City of Philadelphia now has 20,214 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts within a ward. Precincts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 22, 23, 34, 38, and 41 of Ward 66 are shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping. The City of Philadelphia now has 279 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Precinct 10 of Ward 66 is shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping.
b.   Suburban Philadelphia now has the number of people needed for 4 districts.
c.   The Exurban Pittsburgh district has 36,095 fewer people than needed. It will take on the westernmost portion of Beaver County.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Frankfort Springs, Hanover, Greene, Hookstown, Georgetown, Independence, Shippingport, Raccoon, Potter, Glasgow, Ohioville, Midland, Industry, Brighton, Vanport, Beaver, and Bridgewater are shifted into the Exurban Pittsburgh district, which now has 1,432 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of South Beaver is shifted into tbe Exurban Pittsburgh district.
d.   The Suburban Pittsburgh district now has 485,717 too few people. It will take on the northernmost and westernmost suburban areas of Allegheny County.
i.   Shift geographic areas of Allegheny County. The portion of Allegheny County north of the Ohio River, the Allegheny River, and the City of Pittsburgh is shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 191,670 too few people.
ii.   Shift whole municipalities. Crescent, Moon, Carnot-Moon, Coraopolis, Neville, Findlay, Clinton, Imperial, Enlow, North Fayette, Robinson, Pennsbury Village, Kennedy, Stowe, McKees Rocks, Oakdale, Noblestown, Sturgeon, McDonald, Thornburg, Rosslyn Farms, Crafton, Ingram, Carnegie, Collier, Rennerdale, South Fayette, Bridgeville, Heidelberg, Scott, and Upper St. Clair are shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 2,913 too few people.
iii.   Shift whole precincts. Green Tree Districts 1 and 2 are shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 546 too few people.
iv.   Split a precinct. Part of Green Tree District 3 is shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district.
e.   The Urban Pittsburgh district now has the correct number of people.
f.   The Harrisburg-York district has 68,632 too many people. The northernmost portion of Dauphin County will be shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Rush, Jefferson, Jackson, Williams, Williamstown, Wiconisco, Lykens, Gratz, Pillow, Washington, Elizabethville, Mifflin, Berrysburg, Upper Paxton, Millersburg, Lenkerville, Wayne, Halifax Township, Halifax Borough, Reed, Middle Paxton, Dauphin, East Hanover, West Hanover, and Skyline View are shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district. The Harrisburg-York district now has 3,672 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Derry Precincts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13 are shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district. The Harrisburg-York district now has 389 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Derry Precinct 10 is shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district.
g.   The Lancaster-Lebanon district now has the correct number of people.
5.   Assign every county within the remaining groupings to a district or grouping of multiple districts, and for any grouping contained within a county, assign every ward to a district
a.   City of Philadelphia
i.   All wards west of Broad Street get assigned to a West Philadelphia district
ii.   All wards east of Broad Street get assigned to an East Philadelphia district
b.   Suburban Philadelphia
i.   Bucks County gets a district, and will also be assigned the portion of Philadelphia County in the Suburban Philadelphia grouping
ii.   Montgomery County gets a district
iii.   Delaware County gets a district
iv.   Chester County gets a district, and will also be assigned the portion of Berks County in the Suburban Philadelphia grouping
6.   Shift population between districts so that each has the correct population
a.   The West Philadelphia district has 20,867 too few people. It will take on population from the southernmost portion of the East Philadelphia district.
i.   Shift whole precincts. Precincts 1, 2, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33, 36, 39, 41, 43, and 44 of Ward 39 are shifted into the West Philadelphia district, which now has 96 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Precinct 40 of Ward 39 is shifted into the West Philadelphia district.
b.   The East Philadelphia district now has the correct number of people.
c.   The Bucks County district has 44,265 too few people. It will take on the easternmost portion of Montgomery County.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Upper Moreland, and Hatboro are shifted into the Bucks County district, which now has 5,278 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Upper Moreland District 2, Divisions 1 and 2 back to the Montgomery County district. The Bucks County district now has 1,211 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Upper Moreland District 4, Division 1 is shifted back to the Montgomery County district.
d.   The Montgomery County district now has 47,423 too many people. The southernmost portion of Montgomery County will be shifted into the Delaware County district.
i.   Shift whole wards. Lower Merion wards 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, and 14 are shifted into the Delaware County district. The Montgomery County district now has 1,287 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Lower Merion Ward 6, Precinct 1 is shifted into the Delaware County district.
e.   The Delaware County district now has 140,611 too few people. It will take on
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Birmingham, Thornbury, Pennsbury, Westtown, Tredyffrin, Easttown, Willistown, Malvern, East Goshen, West Goshen, and West Chester are shifted into the Delaware County district, which now has 598 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Pocopson is shifted into the Delaware County district.
f.   The Chester County district now has the correct number of people.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here is my proposed State Senate map. I allowed for a +/- 5% population deviation if it meant avoiding a county split, and the only split municipalities are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. In both the 2020 Presidential and AG elections, 25 districts each voted to the left and to the right of the statewide vote.

DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec96884a-b79f-44fa-9778-8d6cecd6cc30

[Boss_Rahm]

I am once again asking people to recognize that with both Lamb and Doyle out, there is no longer any need to preserve the ugly current PA-17 Pittsburgh reach-around. Just grab all of the Penn hills region to the west of the city and use the rivers as guidelines for district borders. This near-guarantees a Biden seat, one that could even be more Democratic than the nation if you know what you are aiming for.

Problem is Rs controlling the state legislature would have a collective stroke if Allegheny is drawn too unfavorably to them.

We know the map is either going to the D courts or end up a D-favoring compromise (that'll leave their seats intact and favorable) because the D's used said court as leverage and got a map they liked, so why do they matter? In the latter scenario the R's would care more about securing their own then spending little capital on offense, and the courts in the former clearly wanted to do it in 2018 except Lamb lived in Mt. Lebanon and Doyle had a base in the Swissvale area.

Didn't they draw the 6D/5 swing/7 R map before the special election Lamb won or am I misremembering? Either way as hard as it is to believe 6D/5 swing/6R is D-leaning considering how f---ed the geography of the state is (inb4 "land doesn't vote!" Sorry, we've already decided property >>>> life in this country.) Any more and Rs prolly strip the 5-2 Court of the authority to appoint the tie-breaker to the commission at the first opportunity.

Granted, knowing the um... authoritarian the PAGOP has taken they'll prolly do that anyway whenever they take back the governor's mansion so maybe you're right after all.

The commission is only for legislative lines. Congressional districts are a bill that (likely will not) pass the chamber and the governor's pen, which is why an outside authority will be needed - the same court as last time. And said court last time took steps to correct for the state's geographic lean, which means a mild D-favoring map.

TBH I don't like 'corrective mapping' like this in fair Congressional lines, cause various statewide geographic advantages and the VRA work to cancel out any real political benefit nationwide, so one does not need to correct in a single state. But that is not the rules we play by, and that is not the rules the PA court recognized in 2018. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e9498594-cb08-4a0a-afe8-96e209594042
This is a quick mock-up of a map trying to follow the rules the PA SC has used.
Did I do a good job?

This is perfectly reasonable. Though if a bit of northwest Philly is going in the 4th district I'd expect Roxborough rather than Cedarbrook.

[Boss_Rahm]

Yeah I don't think Amanda's Holt map is an intentional GOP gerrymander, I think it's more a consequence of geography and a few lucky decisions that benefited the GOP.

Gotta say though for someone who is very against gerrymandering and was disgusted by dirty districts, a lot of her districts are rough around the edges, though not really with partisan intention.

It's not that these maps are unfair, moreso they're just bad, but could be an interesting starting point.

Nope, it's intentional. There's no reason to put Bradford County in PA-8 while leaving out the Wilkes-Barre suburbs unless you're trying to advantage the GOP.

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/MadeleineDean/status/1469069024441122824

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609
Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

Because they'll probably draw a map that resembles the current map (that they drew) with a red seat in the middle cut out but with PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17 taking in more red territory. So a mostly fair map that has some competitive districts. It could be better to lock in an incumbent protection gerrymander type map.

Unless Republicans agree to a D-leaning PA-8, Democrats would be better off letting the court draw the map. And you have to get pretty creative to draw an incumbent protection map that would both pass muster with the court and actually protect Cartwright. Here's what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c175385-a006-42db-b014-3dffed8f0450

[Boss_Rahm]

Senate seems GOP favorable.
FWIW the current map has 25 Biden seats lol.

Looking at the number of Biden/Trump districts doesn't tell the whole story here. Republican Senators Browne and Tomlinson both survived the '18 wave in Biden districts, and would've been tough to beat under the old map in a more GOP-friendly year. Under the new map, Browne's SD-16 moved to a more rural area, creating an open Allentown-based seat (SD-14) that voted for Biden by 9 points. Tomlinson got safer in SD-6, but so did Democrat Steve Santarsiero in SD-10, who would've been more vulnerable under the old map. Similarly, in Allegheny County SD-37 shifted right and SD-38 shifted left, to benefit an incumbent in each party. And lastly, SD-15 moved entirely within Dauphin County, shifting it from a Trump district to a Biden +15 district.

So overall, Democrats will likely pick up 2 seats from this map. A fairer map would've included a Democratic-leaning Lancaster-area seat, but this one still undoes a good chunk of the gerrymandering compared to last decade's map.

[Boss_Rahm]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Muth is still in the 44th district, which moved to the left. But apparently you now live in the 24th district, which was Republican-leaning previously but moved to the right.