2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

This map might actually be something like what we end up with.

Nah, Wolf should (and presumably would) veto that. 

It's pretty fair, losing a district just happens to really hurt Dems.

Well it cuts a GOP district but every other D district has to move right besides the Buck district which is R held

[lfromnj]

You can't split Bucks County!

Oh, really?

Yikes...

Well you can, it just that it hasn't since umm...has Bucks ever been cut to favor other counties? If you go way back you can find times that it had multiple seats in Bucks, but I'm not sure it has ever had to lend some of it's pop to other seats. Hell, before OMOV Bucks either was her own seat or was paired with one of her neighbors (Montgomery Lehigh), which may have been one of those 'overpopulated, but preserving local interests' districts. I stared at the GIS gif on this UCLA historical districts page for a good few minutes and never saw Bucks get cut.

So yes, while there are few absolutes in redistricting one of them is that PA will not cut Bucks, at least in 2020.

Yup all that can be done with Bucks is whatever the remaining 150k of the district is, NE philly or Middle Montgomery or Exurban Montgomery or the red parts of the Lehigh valley.

[lfromnj]

Honestly find a way to Chop Cartwright and give the best parts of Lackawanna to Wild while Fitzpatrick takes  the redder parts of the Lehigh Valley so Houlahan can keep more of Chester.  Everyone besides Cartwright should be pretty happy.



Here we go, Cartwright is effectively chopped as Mueser/Wild eat up his district.

Houlahan manages to keep a +5 D composite district while Fitzpatrick's district moves moderately to the right. Wild gets a pretty Safe district at +15 composit although probably only +8 Clinton although double digit Biden.

Dean takes a light hit but its still clearly Safe D even without Lower Merion.

[lfromnj]

Honestly find a way to Chop Cartwright and give the best parts of Lackawanna to Wild while Fitzpatrick takes  the redder parts of the Lehigh Valley so Houlahan can keep more of Chester.  Everyone besides Cartwright should be pretty happy.



Here we go, Cartwright is effectively chopped as Mueser/Wild eat up his district.

Houlahan manages to keep a +5 D composite district while Fitzpatrick's district moves moderately to the right. Wild gets a pretty Safe district at +15 composit although probably only +8 Clinton although double digit Biden.

Dean takes a light hit but its still clearly Safe D even without Lower Merion.

This is a hideous map, as are several of the maps being posted in this thread

Its not a court map, its a bipartisan compromise that is made before a court can make a map.

[lfromnj]

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.

Do you mean the blue district?, yeah he could run there and maybe win the primary.
The Purple district was only Obama +2 in 08 so its Safe R. Its +15 R composite 2012>2016

Again this map shores up Wild and Saves Houlahan from taking a more red district and less upscale. Pretty decent deal for D's in East PA especially when the D district is probably flipping soon.

A more court oriented map would hurt D's pretty badly as Cartwright has to expand a lot, which either means a lot of blood red areas or Monroe County which would hurt Wild.

Fitzpatrick would get hurt a touch but honestly he's doing pretty fine so not too much of a D advantage there until maybe the next D wave. And then Houlahan gets pushed out pretty far.

My map just fully accepts Cartwright's district is going to be hard either way withit expanding and just cutting it out while shoring up the other 2 swing district D incumbents while only giving Fitzpatrick a mild advantage.

So the D options are with Wilds/Fitzpatrick/Houlahan/Cartwright is
Tossup/Likely R with Fitz and tilt D without/ tossup/ Lean R with Cartwright and Likely R without or
Safe D/Safe R with Fitz and Lean R without/ Likely D/ Safe R with or without Cartwright.

[lfromnj]

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.

Do you mean the blue district?, yeah he could run there and maybe win the primary.
The Purple district was only Obama +2 in 08 so its Safe R. Its +15 R composite 2012>2016

Yes, I mean the Allentown-Scranton combo seat. My point is while I do think it's not a bad choice for Dems/Wolf to try to push, they'll probably not do it without one of the incumbents either retiring or having other plans.

 I guess Biden could save him for an open cabinet spot or Ambassadorship after the election?

[lfromnj]

The Lehigh seat should clearly have Carbon in a fair map as its part of the Lehigh valley, honestly the fact the current map doesn't have Carbon is an absolute disgrace for a "fair map" as Lehigh+ Northampton+ Carbon is perfectly 1 seat with 2010 pop +6k people. Wild still survives with those 3 counties although I think the district shifts a point to the right? Anyway it was just stupid those 3 counties weren't kept together.

[lfromnj]

The Lehigh seat should clearly have Carbon in a fair map as its part of the Lehigh valley, honestly the fact the current map doesn't have Carbon is an absolute disgrace for a "fair map" as Lehigh+ Northampton+ Carbon is perfectly 1 seat with 2010 pop +6k people.

I don't disagree on the particulars of the shape of Lehigh CD, even though I think that the current map, for sure, absolutely qualifies as a fair map. Lehigh+Northampton+Carbon is just too good a pairing to avoid, though for optimal results, it ought to be paired with Luzerne+Monroe+Lackawanna (with Pike being sent into a CD running along the New York state border).

Yes those 3 counties are also perfectly whole and only needed an extra 500 people and thats what should have been done. Pike isn't ideal but whatever.

[lfromnj]

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:

I don't like this map, I'll be honest. A truly fair map starts with an AA Philly district, then applies the same principles we each used on our VA maps. I realize the tradition keeps the Bucks district the way it is, but let's not mistake tradition for equity.

What do you mean by "equity"

[lfromnj]

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.

[lfromnj]

If you want more minority representation
(red and yellow is a light GOP gerrymander btw for a winnable GOP seat pre 2018,although everything else was just done fairly or for creating 2 black seats, not my endorsed map. Anyway getting 2 black seats is possible and doesn't have any major partisan effect as it doesn't affect Houlahan's or Fitz's district who are the only swing Philly district.

also
@blarite, did you split the city of Pittsburgh?

I can't tell.

[lfromnj]

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.

Ok, but my argument was that tradition doesn't equate to fairness, so bringing up tradition as a counter-argument is...meaningless.

Except you said community integrity was important and Bucks is an important community that should be kept together.

[lfromnj]

@blarite, did you split the city of Pittsburgh?

Nope:

Works fine, can't make any major disagreements. I had Penn hills and Mt. Lebanon switched  but was honestly just a bit lazy over there.

I have some issues with your Lehigh valley seats but I can see how you were forced to create that due to other decisions you made. Not perfectly happy with Lancaster but the problem with Lancaster is its pretty big but not big enough to be a whole CD. The same problem exists in SC with Spartanburg and Greensville,

[lfromnj]

LOL ^ what a hack map.
That split of Berks/Pittsburgh and Alleghany is a meme.

Literally everyone but you agrees that there should be a SW westmoreland/Fayette/Greene/Washington district with a few thousand added from the next county.

[lfromnj]

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

[lfromnj]

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

[lfromnj]

^ All of the maps you draw are D gerrymanders.

[lfromnj]

Oh so now you care about partisan equity?

Where was that in CA?

[lfromnj]

"because shoving in downtown Pittsburgh with Greene County is fair"

[lfromnj]

Oh so now you care about partisan equity?

Where was that in CA?

Someone’s salty about it being possible to draw a very realistic PA map that isn’t a natural Republican gerrymander

That's not realistic and neither is the court going to go that far. They might split Pittsburgh with what Lamb has now but they are not going to connect Greene County to Pittsburgh.

[lfromnj]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

[lfromnj]

Here's a slight-dem favoring incumbent protection gerrymander which might have a chance of happening, given that Dems have a slight upper hand. Houlahan and Lamb are shorn up, while Cartwright and Wild are thrown together in an extremely fair fight safe D district (literally about half of each person's seat).

Additionally, I made a district which splits Bucks County (!) which shores up Fitzpatrick.

Sorry for not including photos; not posting on my usual computer so I'm trying to "leave no trace."

Still don't think Fitz will want Bucks split especially as the lower part was barely to the left of the county anyway.

Other than that East PA is fine for your goals. I guess the main argument will be with Lamb's district?

Also remove the city of York from the Harrisburg district and give it to Smucker if you are going incumbent protection.

[lfromnj]

Here's a slight-dem favoring incumbent protection gerrymander which might have a chance of happening, given that Dems have a slight upper hand. Houlahan and Lamb are shorn up, while Cartwright and Wild are thrown together in an extremely fair fight safe D district (literally about half of each person's seat).

Additionally, I made a district which splits Bucks County (!) which shores up Fitzpatrick.

Sorry for not including photos; not posting on my usual computer so I'm trying to "leave no trace."

Still don't think Fitz will want Bucks split especially as the lower part was barely to the left of the county anyway.

Other than that East PA is fine for your goals. I guess the main argument will be with Lamb's district?

Also remove the city of York from the Harrisburg district and give it to Smucker if you are going incumbent protection.

Yeah, that's why I drew two maps since I figured splitting Bucks might would be a bridge too far.

Wrt: York, the idea was to basically preserve the current partisan balance, and since Perry's district gets more R anyway I think it probably is alright.

That's fair enough although if Dems really want that Lamb district they probably should just concede the Likely R Harrisburg district.

Also might want to give parts of rural Chester to Scanlon while giving Christy that Montgomery part with Lower Merion.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/94312cca-7c15-4533-b9c0-110730c6c68a
There we go made those 2 changes to even the partisanship between 5 and 6 along with 10 and 11. Seems like a pretty reasonable and fair trade starting from your map?

Also FWIW Cartwright did have the blue parts of Northhampton in his old district . However Wild might run for senate.

[lfromnj]

Sev what are you trying to draw?
A  D court map or an actually fair map?

[lfromnj]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm