2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1482471181248868352

Wolf releases proposal which splits Pittsburgh.

[cvparty]

everyone hates harrisburg i guess

[OBD]

Decent map. Nuke the Bucks split though.

[Oryxslayer]

After a brief analysis, the haphazard way the map was drawn when it comes to the finer points but the instant clarity when it comes to the broader ones suggests the only purpose of this map is to provide justification for a veto. But maybe I'm wrong.

[politicallefty]

Wolf's SEPA configuration is quite similar to my map from several weeks ago, including the tri-chop of Bucks. I wasn't particularly fond of the tri-chop, but it keeps other counties whole and districts more sensical. I also considered that configuration for PA-09, but I thought the Northern Tier to Lebanon County district was worse than the PA-12 I made.

I don't know why he's so quick to give up on the Harrisburg-York district. It's compact and reasonable. My only guess is that it's trying to get Republicans to agree to something more reasonable. I'm not sure there's a reasonable compromise in the cards though. Republicans will certainly not agree to splitting Pittsburgh.

[lfromnj]

I do believe at this point if the court map does split Pittsburgh it will involve a PA07 taking Carbon instead of Monroe. It helps keeps the map Proportional in 2016 prez and 2020 treasurer while not really hurting Democrats overall as it would help preserves Cartwright's seat to some degree.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wolf's map is decent. It's clear that Harrisburg and Pittsburgh are the real pain points in every map I've seen so far--no one really knows what to do with them. Selfishly, I like the idea of putting Harrisburg into the 11th district to make it more competitive, since that's where I live.

Splitting the northern part of Montco into a district with Bucks is pretty strange, though the bits of Montco put into the 1st district are pretty much a wash as far as party registration. The district is lean D, but Fitzpatrick could still win there. I'd prefer not to put those bits of Montco into the 1st district, though.

[sting in the rafters]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

[lfromnj]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

[Sol]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

IIRC a lot of the Amish are actually leaving Lancaster County because the land is too expensive. That's part of why the Amish population is exploding in Eastern Ohio and Eastern Indiana, in addition to the birthrates.

[Oryxslayer]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Yes Amish have a high birthrate. They (presently) though are one of the insolated self-reliant religious communities that prefers to abstain from non-local politics. Despite the stereotype, the Amish aren't exactly huge percentages of York or Lancaster's population - plenty of different communities of rural citizens - they just have an oversized cultural presence. And the in-migration into the SCPA cities and the immediately adjacent townships is much more relevant electorally. And as noted, the community is migrating out to make way for this growth.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

[lfromnj]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

The actual city of Lancaster shrunk still for the decade FYI.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

The actual city of Lancaster shrunk still for the decade FYI.

That is unexpected.
Why did that happen? What factors are at work here?

[Torie]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

The actual city of Lancaster shrunk still for the decade FYI.

That is unexpected.
Why did that happen? What factors are at work here?

The city is old and compact without much real estate so it would be expected to not have population growth.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

The actual city of Lancaster shrunk still for the decade FYI.

That is unexpected.
Why did that happen? What factors are at work here?

The city is old and compact without much real estate so it would be expected to not have population growth.

Ah. That makes sense.

[BoiseBoy]

The PA legislature has passed their own plan. Gov. Wolf has promised to veto it, and the maps will likely be court-drawn afterwards.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485741187235565572?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PA legislature has passed their own plan. Gov. Wolf has promised to veto it, and the maps will likely be court-drawn afterwards.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485741187235565572?s=20

It does seem that this is the direction things would always go, unless Rs were willing to meet Wolf half-way.

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1485752063669805056

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1485796706973364226

The decision made by the conservative Commonwealth Court will likely be appealed to the Supreme Court.

[lfromnj]

So National Democrats prefer equalizing Wild/Cartwright.

[Boss_Rahm]

So National Democrats prefer equalizing Wild/Cartwright.

Unfortunately. They'd be better off giving Stroudsburg to Wild IMO.

[kwabbit]

Is a court really going to split Pittsburgh? I get that proportionality is a goal, but splitting a city of 300k to help Democrats is too far past what a non-partisan body should attempt even if proportionality is a goal. Fine, give Lamb's district every Dem-leaning suburb, but at least respect an important municipal line.

[Boss_Rahm]

Is a court really going to split Pittsburgh? I get that proportionality is a goal, but splitting a city of 300k to help Democrats is too far past what a non-partisan body should attempt even if proportionality is a goal. Fine, give Lamb's district every Dem-leaning suburb, but at least respect an important municipal line.

I have my doubts. Which is why I would've preferred that Wolf propose something like this:

https://twitter.com/PAMapper/status/1485818368590557185

[kwabbit]

Is a court really going to split Pittsburgh? I get that proportionality is a goal, but splitting a city of 300k to help Democrats is too far past what a non-partisan body should attempt even if proportionality is a goal. Fine, give Lamb's district every Dem-leaning suburb, but at least respect an important municipal line.

I have my doubts. Which is why I would've preferred that Wolf propose something like this:

https://twitter.com/PAMapper/status/1485818368590557185

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.