2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Zaybay]

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

I wouldn't go that far. I mean, Nevada Democrats cracked Hispanics three ways to get three Lean D seats, to the detriment of one of their incumbents and the prospect of a Hispanic-influence seat. North Carolina, Oregon and Illinois all went pretty hard and New Mexico and Tennessee look like they will as well, which again can't really be explained by incumbent protection like Maryland, Ohio, Texas, or Florida. Partisan advantage is not the be all end all – we can see that in Maryland and Florida especially – but it's definitely playing a larger role than it did in 2010, and I'd be pretty surprised if the PA Democrats allow an own goal like this.

But these aren't examples of the national party stepping in. These are examples of the state parties and members having their own interests that happen to line up with partisan interests. For example, the NV Dems are on the record that Lee and Horsford wanted safer seats, and Titus was "fine" (she got overpowered by everyone else and had to take the L) with losing some of her status as an untouchable incumbent. DeFazio argued strongly for the gerrymander behind the curtain because he wanted his successor to be a Democrat, and said successor just so happens to likely be the rather influential Val Hoyle.

TN, IL and NC are good examples of when partisan maximization and arbitrary interests of the members happen to line up rather well, though in the case of TN we've still got to wait and see, since the incumbents have been rather squeamish to the idea. In IL, carving out seats didn't bother any of the D incumbents, and influential D politicians in those seat regions argued strongly for their configurations. When it came to where the Ds bordered each other, it was rather chaotic, and the interests of two incumbents came to a head rather dramatically. With NC, one of the seats was drawn specifically for one of the drawers to run for, before Cawthorn surprisingly cut him off.

Point being, none of these moves were because the party took orders from the national establishment or were being virtuous and thinking about the big picture. Again, they don't give a hoot about what they want. They care about what they themselves want. Sometimes that means something along the lines of a partisan gerrymander, sometimes that means incumbent protection, sometimes that can mean clean maps, sometimes it can mean truly disgusting maps, and sometimes it can mean truly suboptimal, infuriating maps that reward certain power players.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

[lfromnj]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

Well again they could take the most D areas from Pennsylvania 7 and 8 and have those two fight it out. Im not sure if there is a way to give Cartwright an advantage in that primary, but that's something I could see happening.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

Well again they could take the most D areas from Pennsylvania 7 and 8 and have those two fight it out. Im not sure if there is a way to give Cartwright an advantage in that primary, but that's something I could see happening.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a26f42a-b2b6-4505-a766-778e33816e76
Does this look like a possible arrangement in NE PA+Lehigh Valley?

[lfromnj]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

Well again they could take the most D areas from Pennsylvania 7 and 8 and have those two fight it out. Im not sure if there is a way to give Cartwright an advantage in that primary, but that's something I could see happening.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a26f42a-b2b6-4505-a766-778e33816e76
Does this look like a possible arrangement in NE PA+Lehigh Valley?

I mean that's more or less what they did except switch Hamilton for Smithfield which has slightly lower deviation. Basically my guess is if there is a compromise map the GOP will allow Democrats to choose whichever for the 2 districts as one of them has to move right and the other stays stagnant.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

Well again they could take the most D areas from Pennsylvania 7 and 8 and have those two fight it out. Im not sure if there is a way to give Cartwright an advantage in that primary, but that's something I could see happening.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a26f42a-b2b6-4505-a766-778e33816e76
Does this look like a possible arrangement in NE PA+Lehigh Valley?

I mean that's more or less what they did except switch Hamilton for Smithfield . Basically my guess is if there is a compromise map the GOP will allow Democrats to choose whichever for the 2 districts as one of them has to move right and the other stays stagnant.

That makes sense.

[kwabbit]

PA Proportional Attempt

I tried to emulate the court by making it 8.5-8.5 essentially and keeping all incumbents (that aren't running for higher office) in their current districts. Cartwright is pretty screwed, him and Wild can't both survive. Just not enough Dem territory left.

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/MadeleineDean/status/1469069024441122824

[Comrade Funk]

Street using wokism to justify his corruption.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Street is a DINO piece of sh!t just like his pond scum uncle

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469079921066708995

lol

[If my soul was made of stone]

PA Proportional Attempt

I tried to emulate the court by making it 8.5-8.5 essentially and keeping all incumbents (that aren't running for higher office) in their current districts. Cartwright is pretty screwed, him and Wild can't both survive. Just not enough Dem territory left.

The 3rd should be Black-majority. 43% VAP isn't cutting it when the population is this concentrated.

Splitting Forest County, which has less than 6,000 people, gave me a good laugh.

[kwabbit]

PA Proportional Attempt

I tried to emulate the court by making it 8.5-8.5 essentially and keeping all incumbents (that aren't running for higher office) in their current districts. Cartwright is pretty screwed, him and Wild can't both survive. Just not enough Dem territory left.

The 3rd should be Black-majority. 43% VAP isn't cutting it when the population is this concentrated.

Splitting Forest County, which has less than 6,000 people, gave me a good laugh.

I was trying to keep Delaware County whole, with hopefully both of the Philadelphia districts being Black districts. You kind of have to extend into the Black part of Delaware to get a higher Black percentage if you want two Black-performing seats, especially if the Bucks-based district extends into Montgomery instead of NE Philly.

For some reason I like splitting tiny counties more than big ones lol. Idk it feels like a county of 6k people doesn't form enough of a community where it shouldn't be split, but larger counties do. It makes a nice straight line too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469079921066708995

lol

This is what happens when you tunnel-vision on one particular metric and forget to just. like. take a look at what your map looks like at the end of the day. Redistricting is an art as much as a science, and even a technically impressive map like Holt's can be utter trash in practice.

[😥]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffd085f6-892a-4a0f-a01a-660f74975bd1

I think something like this would be good

9-8 Biden 2020
10-7 Shapiro 2020
11-6 Casey 2018
11-6 Wolf 2018
10-7 Trump 2016
11-6 Toomey 2016

[sting in the rafters]

SNIP

SNIP

New Freezer 3.0. Cleaned up a lot of county splits and removed gentrifying Manayunk for relatively suburbanized NE Philly in Boyle's district.

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469079921066708995
lol

As a Houlahan constituent I feel more insulted as a map-maker than disenfranchised as a voter that this cartographer took 100 hours to put the mushroom farms of K-Square and Oxford in the same district as Upper Darby as part of Dean's district nor split Lancaster over the demon which is the hook of Houlahan's district going into Lebanon. No, I am not going to be in the same district as the people who host the Renaissance Fair. I refuse.

[Sol]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

Not necessarily:



link

Houlahan gets a 51-44 Clinton district. The purple district is plurality Black VAP at 36%, while the green is 47% (and an outright majority on total population.) I mixed up the numbering on the Philly districts accidentally, my bad.



link

This one is better at both shoring up Houlahan (53-42 Clinton) and increasing BVAP in the both Philly districts (38% in Green and 48% in Purple). It is more of a shakeup though.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

Not necessarily:



link

Houlahan gets a 51-44 Clinton district. The purple district is plurality Black VAP at 36%, while the green is 47% (and an outright majority on total population.) I mixed up the numbering on the Philly districts accidentally, my bad.



link

This one is better at both shoring up Houlahan (53-42 Clinton) and increasing BVAP in the both Philly districts (38% in Green and 48% in Purple). It is more of a shakeup though.

Why use Clinton numbers when there's 2020 data?

[Sol]

Trying to show that these districts would be pretty safe for Democrats even in a weaker year in Pennsylvania.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair PA map. Pretty least change and I made small decisions in favor of Dems to cancel out geography disadvantages

[Mr.Phips]

My attempt at a fair PA map. Pretty least change and I made small decisions in favor of Dems to cancel out geography disadvantages

As I’ve said before Dems would be wise to throw Cartwright to the wolves in order to protect Wild.  His seat is not holdable for Dems long term anyway.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair PA map. Pretty least change and I made small decisions in favor of Dems to cancel out geography disadvantages

As I’ve said before Dems would be wise to throw Cartwright to the wolves in order to protect Wild.  His seat is not holdable for Dems long term anyway.

Ye that's what this map tries to do. Putting Scranton in PA-07 though is a step too far and makes the map a whole lot uglier and less representative in temrs of COIs without much partisan gain.

[patzer]

I made a Dem-favourable map that would essentially ensure every Dem incumbent is safe (this map went 10 Clinton, 7 Trump as well as 10 Biden, 7 Trump). Achieved this by pulling Susan Wild's district into the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469118319752060929

Yeah some GOP reps really don't like the house map