2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

One thing to note is that 2 of the districts are not road  contigious. One is the Great Dismal Swamp part in VA02/VA03. It's possible to make road contigious but they didn't want to?


Also Western Henrico/Chesterfield don't have any road connections.

 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the partisan makeup?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1475945125314502659?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Wow, they really screwed that one good.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1475945125314502659?s=20

This guy literally complained because the map drew out all 3 women.(note that if Luria is drawn out so is Griffith, both have clearly obvious seats they can run in. Luria does have a few points worse seat but she would be replaced by a Republican Woman/Black Republican if you really care) He's an obvious partisan hack trying to exaggerate the maps*

* VA supreme court.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing to note is that 2 of the districts are not road  contigious

 

Which ones? Because water contiguity is valid in VA, per established precedent.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

DRA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the partisan makeup?

Almost certainly 7-4 Biden, though 2 and 7 could def go GOP. 10 looks like it may have been competitive at one point but prolly not really anymore barring a catastrophe for Dems

1 and 5 look like they both went to Trump but not by much. Prolly safe GOP for 2022 but def be on teh look out down the road

Overall good day for fair maps

[Gass3268]

Amazing how Democrats got total control of the state and decided to hand over redistricting power to the Republican State Supreme Court. That's Florida Dems level of stupidity.

[lfromnj]

Amazing how Democrats got total control of the state and decided to hand over redistricting power to the Republican State Supreme Court. That's Florida Dems level of stupidity.

Can you just say disarmed. Its pretty obvious the supreme court here didn't have much bias and attempted to be a neutral arbiter . I think Dems can complain about the map too but its unfair to attack the VA supreme court here.

[Sestak]

Lmao so the Supreme Court screwed over Luria even worse than the map drawn by GOP ultrahack Sean Trende. Seems like six pretty safe seats for the GOP in 2022?

[Gass3268]

Amazing how Democrats got total control of the state and decided to hand over redistricting power to the Republican State Supreme Court. That's Florida Dems level of stupidity.

Can you just say disarmed. Its pretty obvious the supreme court here didn't have any bias and attempted to be a neutral arbiter . I think Dems can complain about the maps but its unfair to attack the VA supreme court here.

There were so many better ways they could have brought about a fair redistricting process, but then they went with the most partisan process possible with a partisan backstop.

[Oryxslayer]

This map is 10k votes off from being 9-2 based on the 2018 senate numbers. As it is:

Outer NOVA: Biden+7, D's won every recent race including 2016.
Tidewater Suburbs: Trump+6.5ish
Southside: Trump+8
VA Beach: Biden+2

[BoiseBoy]

Are shapefiles available anywhere?

[beesley]

A shameful map to say the least. The previous version was better for minority representation.

[lfromnj]

Lmao so the Supreme Court screwed over Luria even worse than the map drawn by GOP ultrahack Sean Trende. Seems like six pretty safe seats for the GOP in 2022?

Assuming the safe seat rule, Wittman will carpetbag to the Richmond seat so there is a open seat based with a PWC dem base.

If its open R's can win it. Spanberger may think of carpetbagging there though.

[BoiseBoy]

Just eyeballing things, Goode's seat is marginally more DEM than before, Wittman's is a few points more DEM, Spanberger gets a seat about 6 points safer for her, and Luria's seat is now more winnable for Republicans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems quite fair I don't get all the hate?

[lfromnj]

This seems quite fair I don't get all the hate?

Luria's seat is definetely drawn in the R friendly courtmander fashion I described a few months ago. IMO drawing it that way results in a better VA03 as its the 4 "urban" cities and the area of Chesapeake called South Norfolk but yeah Luria's seat is a decent bit more awkard.

Elias/Democrats were certainly too greedy and asked for all of Norfolk to be given to VA02. I think they should have just asked for the simple solution of Chesapeake+VA Beach+  DELMARVA+ a bit more from the whitest parts of Norfolk. It would shore Luria up by a point from her current seat . The main argument would be that well the VA02 they proposed is not road contigious. It still is possible to make it road contigious in the same form it is so I don't know why they didn't. If you don't care about road contiguity you also might as well place delmarva with the the North Eastern Seat.

However I think they didn't really want to listen to obvious incumbent demands anyway.  The court may also have wanted to "disfavor" incumbent demands to a small degree perhaps so they don't have to deal with this again. So once they decided on a Suffolk to VA beach seat for VA02 I think Luria was simply stuck with it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems quite fair I don't get all the hate?

Exactly. It's slightly GOP-leaning, but it's far from the extreme GOPmander that it's being made out to be.

[Nyvin]

This map isn't that good for the GOP, they might win a few seats in 2022 but later in the decade they could be looking at a 8-3 delegation or maybe even 9-2 if Dems find a way to win that VA-5.

1 and 7 are definitely trending D.

[BoiseBoy]

This is a more fair map, but I'm not a fan of VA-01.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a more fair map, but I'm not a fan of VA-01.

Ye but VA-01 was always gonna be a weird district. While the tidewater area def  shouldn’t be ignored, it don’t have the population for a full district so it was always gonna have like 200k people who’d need to be either from NOVA or Richmond 

[Torie]

How much was the Luria district made more Pub from the previous masters' map? The lines with a crude resolution do not seem to have changed.

[Sol]

This map is honestly the best all cycle, I have no idea why people are complaining.

(The fact that it kind of looks like some ones I drew is a good boost to my vanity).