2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weird to think that new 7 only shifted 4 points left in 2020. At face value you'd think it'd be more.

Im suspicious. If I had to bet its probably like Biden +8 . I think the PWC 2020 results are really off and the West County margin is really off.



It is true this area did face a lot of Gwinettification but even then the shift seems way too strong.

Yeah that'd make more sense. Seems like the best they could do was evenly distribute the VBM results across the countie's precincts which means Biden is prolly largely overestimated in deep blue precincts but overestimated in deep red or swingy precicnts (VA-07 takes in deep blue part of PWC)

[Sol]

This map is honestly the best all cycle, I have no idea why people are complaining.

(The fact that it kind of looks like some ones I drew is a good boost to my vanity).

Honestly its pretty close to what I was drawing as well. I can't really diss them. I just went a bit too far on road contiguity which is still important IMO but it is pretty easily fixable.

Either way in the end I will give respect to the special masters for appropriately filtering public comment to listen to genuine comments while obviously ignoring the blatantly partisan/incumbent comments. Not the easiest of jobs against multi million dollar law firms so credit due .

Yeah they probably could have done better with how exactly they handled the specifics of the split in Hampton Roads--I too prefer the configuration you discussed upthread--but considering how many rough commission maps we got I'm not too inclined to nitpick, especially since it looks to be just barely road contiguous and arguably decent in terms of CoI as well (keeping suburbs versus cities together).

[lfromnj]

This map is honestly the best all cycle, I have no idea why people are complaining.

(The fact that it kind of looks like some ones I drew is a good boost to my vanity).

Honestly its pretty close to what I was drawing as well. I can't really diss them. I just went a bit too far on road contiguity which is still important IMO but it is pretty easily fixable.

Either way in the end I will give respect to the special masters for appropriately filtering public comment to listen to genuine comments while obviously ignoring the blatantly partisan/incumbent comments. Not the easiest of jobs against multi million dollar law firms so credit due .

Yeah they probably could have done better with how exactly they handled the specifics of the split in Hampton Roads--I too prefer the configuration you discussed upthread--but considering how many rough commission maps we got I'm not too inclined to nitpick, especially since it looks to be just barely road contiguous and arguably decent in terms of CoI as well (keeping suburbs versus cities together).

Oh they seemed to have change road contiguity. In the preliminary map it wasn't.  I do wonder if they just didn't know if Henrico/Chesterfield don't share a direct road connection. I didn't know that for a while as they are obviously well connected in other manners and I can't specifically blame someone for overlooking it.

As stated in the memo they said they started by drawing VA03 in which case the map they drew makes some sense. Most people would arguably start with VA02 and just result in Chesapeake+VA Beach+ whitest parts of Norfolk. However if you start with VA03 the Hampton Roads Beltway is a pretty good divider between the more urban areas vs more suburban areas.  In the end the VA02 that is forced is a bit worse so I just prefer the traditional set up.

Overall they likely just didn't fix it because they were too suspicious of the rescue Elaine Luria campaign as many arguments against the district was that it drew out a Democratic woman rather than more logical arguments.

[Torie]

Here is a link to the VA CD map now law in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5298ec04-4c21-4270-8071-8ddc0b3631f1

I was interested in how much was in play be moving the tiny county in population (7,348) of Rappahannock out of VA-07 and into VA-10. The answer is 60 basis points in margin Biden over Trump in VA-07, in a pretty strong lean Dem seat either way at the moment. That was enough for the Masters to change the lines. They both were  really sweating it out, line by line, precinct by precinct, and balancing, and they both did it with honesty and skill, and tried as best they could to be nonpartisan. And both have enhanced their reputations - a lot - in my view.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a link to the VA CD map now law in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5298ec04-4c21-4270-8071-8ddc0b3631f1

I was interested in how much was in play be moving the tiny county in population (7,348) of Rappahannock out of VA-07 and into VA-10. The answer is 60 basis points in margin Biden over Trump in VA-07, in a pretty strong lean Dem seat either way at the moment. That was enough for the Masters to change the lines. They both were  really sweating it out, line by line, precinct by precinct, and balancing, and they both did it with honesty and skill, and tried as best they could to be nonpartisan. And both have enhanced their reputations - a lot - in my view.

By drawing a Republican gerrymander in a Safe Democratic state?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a link to the VA CD map now law in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5298ec04-4c21-4270-8071-8ddc0b3631f1

I was interested in how much was in play be moving the tiny county in population (7,348) of Rappahannock out of VA-07 and into VA-10. The answer is 60 basis points in margin Biden over Trump in VA-07, in a pretty strong lean Dem seat either way at the moment. That was enough for the Masters to change the lines. They both were  really sweating it out, line by line, precinct by precinct, and balancing, and they both did it with honesty and skill, and tried as best they could to be nonpartisan. And both have enhanced their reputations - a lot - in my view.

By drawing a Republican gerrymander in a Safe Democratic state?

Please show how you would draw a nonpartisan VA map yourself. Because the way I would draw it would have the median seat be about 2 points to the right of where the Court drew the median seat by 2020 pres numbers, and would possibly also have 1 fewer seat that voted for Biden, and definitely have 1 fewer seat that voted for Clinton in 2016 with a change of 5 points as to the partisanship of the median seat.

I have not yet drawn a 2020s map that I have fully liked, but I have for the 2010s, and this is what it looks like:

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a link to the VA CD map now law in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5298ec04-4c21-4270-8071-8ddc0b3631f1

I was interested in how much was in play be moving the tiny county in population (7,348) of Rappahannock out of VA-07 and into VA-10. The answer is 60 basis points in margin Biden over Trump in VA-07, in a pretty strong lean Dem seat either way at the moment. That was enough for the Masters to change the lines. They both were  really sweating it out, line by line, precinct by precinct, and balancing, and they both did it with honesty and skill, and tried as best they could to be nonpartisan. And both have enhanced their reputations - a lot - in my view.

By drawing a Republican gerrymander in a Safe Democratic state?

Please show how you would draw a nonpartisan VA map yourself.

FTR, I'm not him, but if I had to draw a fair map that moved a seat to the NOVA region, like the courts did, I would have moved the southside seat. It previously reached across the state to compensate for the regions inability to support a single seat on its own. The Southside seat as drawn now makes a bit of sense geographically, it makes little sense demographically. You have counties with respectable AA populations along the border, Uber-White areas around Lynchburg, and highly educated White Areas around Cville whose only demographic partners are in NOVA 100 miles away. Comparatively, the Richmond suburbs are a clear COI with similar demographics.

So I would draw NOVA similar to the first masters map (so VA-01 has enough pop), toss all the AA border counties in VA-04, have VA-04 drop all possible White and Chesterfield areas into the Richmond seat (doing these two steps creates a seat that is both more AA and more diverse than both the previous and court's VA-04), and have the uber-white counties go in the western seats. However, this has the inverse problem partisan-wise of 6-3-2, with Biden likely winning both of the two depending on the Richmond lines, but not by too much.

In the end, it's an example of the problems of having NOVA grow by enough so that the state would be better served by 12 CDs, but only having 11, so some geographic area has to get shafted.

[Skye]

Weird to think that new 7 only shifted 4 points left in 2020. At face value you'd think it'd be more.

Because the (minority heavy) PW County portion of the District (which is 35% of the District) swung two and a half points towards Trump.

[Torie]

But yeah if Luria actually knew where her campaign money was going instead of Marc Elias she could have tried for this. As stated I actually prefer the court's VA03 but this VA02 is better than the VA03 is worse. This would give Luria a Biden +5 seat instead of Biden +4 and the Biden +2 she is about to get. The Great Dismal Swamp definitely seems to somewhat be a barrier in the region.  The special masters definitely seemed open to legitimate COI gripes like the Richmond suburbs/Albemarle county.  Blatant partisan campaigns such as Salem or Norfolk were not getting through. Overall too much of her argument against the VA02/VA03 was just the fact she was drawn out. No one important cared about that.

Instead Luria's lawyer of Marc Elias threatened to sue the VA supreme court under its own map and demanded she get a Safe seat with all of Norfolk instead of Chesapeake. I wonder how much he managed to bill Luria for that

*Speaking about Salem. The funniest thing is Griffith specifically argued that Salem and Roanoke should be split which is a joke argument.

The special masters report made clear that they did not want VA-02 to be any more Dem and it was at the cusp of being too Dem as it was. The idea was that VA-02 was to a Pub leaning CD, and VA-07 Dem leaning, and they flat out wrote that. So Elias was DOA right out of the gate. They wanted a 6-5 map when the Dems won the state in the single digits.

[Torie]

Wow, this is interesting!

On paper, the median district got slightly more Republican (Biden +9ish 1st draft to Biden +7ish final draft), but Democrats would probably prefer a setup where Spanberger, with her track record of winning highly competitive elections, can run in the median district instead of Wexton, who severely underperformed Biden?  Note Clinton actually did better in 2016 in final draft VA-07 than in 1st draft VA-10.



VA-05 takes all of Charlottesville and Albemarle, but is still just safe enough to stay Republican for the decade (Trump +11 2016 to Trump +8 2020).  

VA05 actually doesn't have all of Albemarle. A small portion remains in the north

Also Wextons current seat basically is a Frank Wolf Mander in Fairfax County.  For example even Mark Warner ran like 7 points behind Behind in cities like Great Falls.

As to that "small portion," I think we may have finally found an instance of that massive vote fraud Trump was looking for.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, this is interesting!

On paper, the median district got slightly more Republican (Biden +9ish 1st draft to Biden +7ish final draft), but Democrats would probably prefer a setup where Spanberger, with her track record of winning highly competitive elections, can run in the median district instead of Wexton, who severely underperformed Biden?  Note Clinton actually did better in 2016 in final draft VA-07 than in 1st draft VA-10.



VA-05 takes all of Charlottesville and Albemarle, but is still just safe enough to stay Republican for the decade (Trump +11 2016 to Trump +8 2020). 

VA05 actually doesn't have all of Albemarle. A small portion remains in the north

Also Wextons current seat basically is a Frank Wolf Mander in Fairfax County.  For example even Mark Warner ran like 7 points behind Behind in cities like Great Falls.

As to that "small portion," I think we may have finally found an instance of that massive vote fraud Trump was looking for. 

Costneration or: How I Learned to Stop Loving and Hate Not Assigning Votes to Precincts

[Schiff for Senate]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

[Devils30]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

[Schiff for Senate]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

[Skill and Chance]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

Yes, now that VA-09 is as R as VA-08 is D, there isn't too much of a statewide bias anymore.  NOVA is so uniform now that it's a borderline natural D gerrymander, but Richmond/Hampton Roads is a natural R gerrymander like other smallish Southern cities. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

Yes, now that VA-09 is as R as VA-08 is D, there isn't too much of a statewide bias anymore.  NOVA is so uniform now that it's a borderline natural D gerrymander, but Richmond/Hampton Roads is a natural R gerrymander like other smallish Southern cities. 

Raleigh is also somewhat of a natural D grrrymander now that you bring it up. D throughout without being hyper-D. The issue is that in other parts of NC Dems face challenging geography.

[Devils30]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

Yes, now that VA-09 is as R as VA-08 is D, there isn't too much of a statewide bias anymore.  NOVA is so uniform now that it's a borderline natural D gerrymander, but Richmond/Hampton Roads is a natural R gerrymander like other smallish Southern cities. 

Raleigh is also somewhat of a natural D grrrymander now that you bring it up. D throughout without being hyper-D. The issue is that in other parts of NC Dems face challenging geography.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7ca9d122-4b03-45e2-ab8f-84ebed2d379c

10-4 and for every race including 2016 Senate!

[ProgressiveModerate]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

Yes, now that VA-09 is as R as VA-08 is D, there isn't too much of a statewide bias anymore.  NOVA is so uniform now that it's a borderline natural D gerrymander, but Richmond/Hampton Roads is a natural R gerrymander like other smallish Southern cities. 

Raleigh is also somewhat of a natural D grrrymander now that you bring it up. D throughout without being hyper-D. The issue is that in other parts of NC Dems face challenging geography.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7ca9d122-4b03-45e2-ab8f-84ebed2d379c

10-4 and for every race including 2016 Senate!

Nice! Here's a 10-4 that's much cleaner but risks some security. The assumption is growth in Charlotte will help make those seats better fro Dems. (2020 Pres results below).

[ProgressiveModerate]

While I don't think it'll happen, I'm really hoping VA gains a 12th district in 2030 cause it just makes a good map a lot easier to draw. Here is a 12 district map based on 2020 Census numbers; if this was 2030 the NOVA seats would likely be pulled in and districts 9 and 12 would be underpopulated.

[Boobs]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

The best I could get was this district which on 2020 Census numbers is 47% white and 28% Asian, up from 56% white and 22% Asian in 2010. Using those trends this district would be like 40% white and 34% Asian at best. Certainly a significant Asian influence but I an outright plurality Asian won't be possible until at least 2040.

Also we'll see how things evolve but this creates a bit of an awkward situation with the other NOVA districts

(The district is intentionally underpopulated on 2020 Pres because this area is likely to grow much faster than the state).

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

The best I could get was this district which on 2020 Census numbers is 47% white and 28% Asian, up from 56% white and 22% Asian in 2010. Using those trends this district would be like 40% white and 34% Asian at best. Certainly a significant Asian influence but I an outright plurality Asian won't be possible until at least 2040.

Also we'll see how things evolve but this creates a bit of an awkward situation with the other NOVA districts

(The district is intentionally underpopulated on 2020 Pres because this area is likely to grow much faster than the state).

Actually I take that back. If growth is strong enough in NOVA that allows VA to gaina  12th district, this config would actually be quite nice:

[jamestroll]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

I would love that.

Nova Asians = good people in a genuine and ideological way. My specific neighborhood was quite Asian to say the least.

I still remember told they would vote for Trumpkin thomas jefferson school. hahahahahahaa. They at very least "trended" dem from 2020 election.

[Sol]

While I don't think it'll happen, I'm really hoping VA gains a 12th district in 2030 cause it just makes a good map a lot easier to draw.

Idk, I actually think the current Virginia is pretty ideal--easily the best map in the country and basically no flaws, except the slightly awkward configuration of VA-2 and 3.