2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 192912 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1925 on: October 23, 2020, 09:10:07 AM »
Quote from: kph14 on October 23, 2020, 08:50:01 AM
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 08:26:53 AM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX
NYT polls are not favorable to R’s lol

They actually overestimated R's in 2018. One relevant example: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html

A common theme seems that polls in Texas seem to nail Republicans' final numbers, but if you assign undecideds to the Democrat, that is where the race ends up. If Trump is under 49 in Texas in Cohn's poll, I think he's screwed.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1926 on: October 23, 2020, 12:57:19 PM »
NYT/Siena was horrible in Texas in 2018. Their district polls regularly showed huge leads for Republicans in seats that ended up being very close.
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VAR
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« Reply #1927 on: October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM »
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1928 on: October 23, 2020, 01:41:53 PM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Wouldnt be surprised if it has Trump up +7 again, or if Biden is up mid single digits.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1929 on: October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an inherent distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1930 on: October 23, 2020, 01:43:42 PM »
Uh oh
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1931 on: October 23, 2020, 01:44:47 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an implicit distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?

Channel 2 is one of the oldest and most reliable TV stations in Atlanta.  It's just their slogan.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1932 on: October 23, 2020, 01:47:27 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2020, 01:44:47 PM
Quote from: darthpi on October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an implicit distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?

Channel 2 is one of the oldest and most reliable TV stations in Atlanta.  It's just their slogan.

Duly noted.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1933 on: October 23, 2020, 02:30:15 PM »
Gonna predict Trump and Perdue +4
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philly09
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« Reply #1934 on: October 23, 2020, 05:58:00 PM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1935 on: October 23, 2020, 09:20:27 PM »
Hmmm....
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exopolitician
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« Reply #1936 on: October 23, 2020, 09:25:47 PM »
That would be incredible.
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WD
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« Reply #1937 on: October 23, 2020, 11:23:56 PM »
I want to believe...
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republican1993
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« Reply #1938 on: October 24, 2020, 12:48:36 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX

where are they favorable to R's..............
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1939 on: October 24, 2020, 12:54:53 AM »
Mason-Dixon SD poll coming.

They were spot-on in 2018, predicted Noem to win by 3 (she won by 3).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1940 on: October 24, 2020, 09:11:03 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2020, 09:20:27 PM
Hmmm....



This did a pretty good job predicting things in 2016.
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WD
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« Reply #1941 on: October 24, 2020, 10:13:49 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 24, 2020, 09:11:03 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2020, 09:20:27 PM
Hmmm....



This did a pretty good job predicting things in 2016.

Really? How accurate were R district internals in 2016?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1942 on: October 24, 2020, 10:19:04 AM »
Did I miss something polling-wise with regard to Michigan? Seems as though a number of my fellow blues are suddenly much more bearish on a Trump loss in PA but a win in Michigan. 
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1943 on: October 24, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 24, 2020, 10:19:04 AM
Did I miss something polling-wise with regard to Michigan? Seems as though a number of my fellow blues are suddenly much more bearish on a Trump loss in PA but a win in Michigan. 

Nothing has significantly changed in Michigan that we didn't know already. All that happened is that we got a "new" Trafalgar "poll," and now MI is winnable again in these folks' eyes. It's just more of the typical polling whiplash in the last stretch of the race.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1944 on: October 24, 2020, 10:34:47 AM »
Quote from: Arch on October 24, 2020, 10:20:41 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 24, 2020, 10:19:04 AM
Did I miss something polling-wise with regard to Michigan? Seems as though a number of my fellow blues are suddenly much more bearish on a Trump loss in PA but a win in Michigan. 

Nothing has significantly changed in Michigan that we didn't know already. All that happened is that we got a "new" Trafalgar "poll," and now MI is winnable again in these folks' eyes. It's just more of the typical polling whiplash in the last stretch of the race.

There are some reasons to think MI has more "Shy Trump" potential than PA and less of a suburban ancestral R vote for Biden to gain with and offset this.  Remember, PA always looked close in 2016.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1945 on: October 24, 2020, 10:51:56 AM »
Thanks guys.  Also, when do y'all suppose we'll start getting our final round of polls conducted post-debate?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1946 on: October 24, 2020, 10:54:35 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 24, 2020, 10:51:56 AM
Thanks guys.  Also, when do y'all suppose we'll start getting our final round of polls conducted post-debate?

Might have something for the Sunday morning shows, but early next week is more likely.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1947 on: October 24, 2020, 11:03:19 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 24, 2020, 10:51:56 AM
Thanks guys.  Also, when do y'all suppose we'll start getting our final round of polls conducted post-debate?

The good thing is there doesn't seem to be some last minute jolt to the campaign like Comey 4 years ago - so polls next week should give us a very good idea of where we're at.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1948 on: October 24, 2020, 12:59:17 PM »
If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1949 on: October 24, 2020, 01:10:45 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on October 24, 2020, 12:59:17 PM
If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?
Yes. Obama was a black, you see, and therefore 40-45% of the country hated him.
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