2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Shadows]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

I really think the over representation of rural areas when it comes to SDEs is going to greatly help Biden.

You are right except most of the geographical breakup shows Sanders leading in rural areas (CD4 for example) -

CD4:
Sanders 36%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 13%
Klobuchar 10%
Warren 6%

While this may well be an outlier but Sanders will also do well + get Warren supporters (because she will surely be below 15% in these rural areas).

[Mr. Morden]

I guess there was some speculation as to whether Quinnipiac might have a last minute Iowa poll released on caucus day, since in 2016 they did do a poll release on caucus day.  But since nothing's been announced so far, it looks like that's not happening.

[eric82oslo]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

[eric82oslo]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

Not wrong, right. Only people 50 or 60 years old and older are somewhat excited about his candidacy. The vast majority of those only support him because he has previous government experience and is a moderate and thus in their personal opinion is more electable than the other candidates, which obviously and of course is 100% wrong. If their thinking was actually right, then Trump should have lost in a 20% or 30% landslide in 2016. What most voters these days crave is someone with absolutely no government experience and whose thoughts and mind is situated as far from Washington D.C. as humanly possible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

Not wrong, right. Only people 50 or 60 years old and older are somewhat excited about his candidacy. Only the vast majority of those only support him because he has previous government experience and is a moderator and thus in their personal opinion is more electable than the other candidates, which obviously and of course is 100% wrong. If their thinking was actually right, then Trump should have lost in a 20% or 30% landslide in 2016. What most voters these days crave is someone with absolutely no government experience and whose thoughts and mind is situated as far from Washington D.C. as humanly possible.

I like Biden.  He's been my first choice from the beginning.  Please stop trying to tell me what I should think.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I like Biden.  He's been my first choice from the beginning.  Please stop trying to tell me what I should think.

I thought I remembered you saying Klobuchar was your 1st choice?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I like Biden.  He's been my first choice from the beginning.  Please stop trying to tell me what I should think.

I thought I remembered you saying Klobuchar was your 1st choice?

It's possible I may have given that impression, but what I meant is subtly different.  I like both of them, but Klobuchar is the candidate who I think would make the best President.  In an ideal world, she would be the one I'd want to win the primary.  However, I think Biden has a slightly better chance of beating Trump, which is my overriding priority (and why I'll support whoever the nominee is).  So it's he who I'll actually vote for in the Georgia primary, even if Klobuchar is still in the race at that point.  My ideal ticket for November would be Biden-Klobuchar.

[2016]

Suffolk & Emerson New Hampshire Tracking Polls will come out 11pm ET.

Meanwhile hearing that CNN/WMUR/UNH Poll will come out later this week.

[Mr. Morden]

Monmouth NH poll is coming out later today:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1225099152729804800

[Walmart_shopper]

Monmouth NH poll is coming out later today:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1225099152729804800

They sure blew Iowa, though.

[Ebsy]

Are we going to get any actual good polls of New Hampshire?

[NOVA Green]

Are we going to get any actual good polls of New Hampshire?

Apparently the only good poll out these days is the final poll.... the actual results from real individual voters and not the BS drivel and modeling that we are fed these days with a Nation of Sheep entranced by their smartphones, afraid to answer any unknown numbers because of scams, not open emails bcs of mandatory cyber-security annual drills...

Traditional polling is really going down the tubes, not for the fault of the pollsters, nor necessarily the modeling, but because of the increased difficulty in getting a representative sample size with so many folks that have "dropped out"....

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1225838433765072896

NH Democrats sound hyped for #GiantMeteor2020!

[bilaps]

I really don't care for NH polls it will vote soon, I would like to see NV, SC and TX right now.

[Gass3268]

Are we going to get any actual good polls of New Hampshire?

Don't worry we'll probably get bumper sticker poll from Nevada.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1225838433765072896

NH Democrats sound hyped for #GiantMeteor2020!

Interestingly, more voters age 45+ want a meteor strike than age <45. I guess the 45+ figure "I'll be dead soon anyway, so why not?"

[Tender Branson]

The CNN/Univ. of NH poll for NH will probably be out on Monday:

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center assured CNN — which, along with WMUR-TV, sponsors its pre-primary polling — that everything would work as it should. Unlike the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, which is captained by Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and contracts with an outside call center to conduct interviews — UNH conducts its polling in-house and closely monitors its procedures.

But while they’re confident their final New Hampshire survey will be released without incident, it doesn’t mean it will accurately predict the winner of Tuesday’s primary.

Between the crowded field of candidates, the compressed timeline after an ambiguous Iowa result and Granite Staters’ historical penchant for last-minute commitments, the performance of this year’s New Hampshire polls could exceed its notorious reputation for volatility.

Even UNH pollster Andrew Smith said it’s “a fool’s errand” to try to nail the results with the final poll.

“If we’re getting out of the field on Sunday night [before the primary], we’re asking people who they’re going to vote for when half of them don’t know who they’re going to vote for yet,” Smith said. “It’s kind of a crapshoot, to tell you the truth.”

Smith and UNH haven’t published a new poll since Iowa, but other pollsters have tried to fill the void. Two Boston media outlets with reach into New Hampshire, The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, are working with Suffolk University, also in Boston, to conduct a nightly tracking poll of the race. The survey began in the immediate run-up to Iowa and has been showing changes in the race here since.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/08/new-hampshire-polling-iowa-111798

[atheist4thecause]

There are a few new NH polls that came out. It's important to remember that these are pre-debate numbers. They give us a good idea on where things stand going into the debate, and maybe we'll have some post-debate polls Monday.

According to the aggregate, Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 22.5%, Warren 13%, Biden 13%, Klobuchar 8%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

[Tender Branson]

There are a few new NH polls that came out. It's important to remember that these are pre-debate numbers. They give us a good idea on where things stand going into the debate, and maybe we'll have some post-debate polls Monday.

According to the aggregate, Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 22.5%, Warren 13%, Biden 13%, Klobuchar 8%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

I don't think that Pete will gain much further in the polls.

But this has nothing to do with the debate, but with the fact that he just gained 10% already since Iowa.

If he wins, it will probably not show up in the final polls - but on election day - if many independent women secure his victory.

[atheist4thecause]

Amy Klobuchar jumped from 5th (CNN) to 3rd (Emerson) in NH according to polls. CNN had Klobuchar at 5% and now Emerson has her at 13%. The polls are still pretty volatile, but no matter how you see them, I think it's fair to say that Klobuchar is now right in the mix for 3rd.

FYIW, Boston Globe still has Klobuchar barely in 5th, but she went from 6% to 9%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why haven't there any credible poll from NV och SC (or national) like in a month???


It is almost like there is a plot against Biden. A couple of high-quality polls showing him doing well in SC and NV would help him to break "loser"-news cycle and probably help in NH as well. Well, good for Bernie I guess!

[Tender Branson]

The CNN/UNH is a daily tracking poll:

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1573&context=survey_center_polls

[atheist4thecause]

Just a reminder that none of the recent polls that came out as of today (Sunday) have the full impact of the Friday Debate on ABC. All of them include the 7th (Friday). Monday will be the day we really start getting a good idea of where things stand, and then the elections are Tuesday, so that's pretty convenient.

[eric82oslo]

Just a reminder that none of the recent polls that came out as of today (Sunday) have the full impact of the Friday Debate on ABC. All of them include the 7th (Friday). Monday will be the day we really start getting a good idea of where things stand, and then the elections are Tuesday, so that's pretty convenient.

The only thing we know since many days ago, is that both Biden and Pete (don't tell the Austrian please) are going down fast, while Bernie and Klobuchar are the only ones rising.