2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1223813090103431168?s=20

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

A font error?  Listen to yourself.  You sound F-ing crazy.  

How did Pete supporters point out the problem?  They were given the poll?  Was Bernie given the poll?  Was every candidate given the poll?  What size was the font?  Can the Bernie supporters provide us a copy of the poll questions/analysis with larger font?  Nobody testing the screen? 

This doesn't end anything.  It's only begets more questions.  

Not everything is a grand conspiracy, this isn't Trumpworld.

It appears that a Pete supporter contacted the pollster when his name was left off a polls.  They researched on their end when the issue was brought up an found the issue with the font size, but were unable to determine how many or which specific interviews were impacted/ 

Okay.  When was the issue brought to their attention?  If early, why were people not notified before the CNN event?  Why did they not test their own polls?  Did they really not know until 9PM?  The time when CNN had scheduled their Iowa poll special?  Not buying it.  I'm not this incompetent, and don't believe two large corporations would have been that monumentally incompetent. 

[Wells]

This isn't the end folks! We still have NBC/Marist, CBS/YouGov, and Emerson polls to look forward to tomorrow, plus the chance that this poll will get leaked/DMR change their mind.

[OkThen]

Any legitimate leaks yet?

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

A font error?  Listen to yourself.  You sound F-ing crazy.  

How did Pete supporters point out the problem?  They were given the poll?  Was Bernie given the poll?  Was every candidate given the poll?  What size was the font?  Can the Bernie supporters provide us a copy of the poll questions/analysis with larger font?  Nobody testing the screen? 

This doesn't end anything.  It's only begets more questions.  

Not everything is a grand conspiracy, this isn't Trumpworld.

It appears that a Pete supporter contacted the pollster when his name was left off a polls.  They researched on their end when the issue was brought up an found the issue with the font size, but were unable to determine how many or which specific interviews were impacted/ 

Okay.  When was the issue brought to their attention?  If early, why were people not notified before the CNN event?  Why did they not test their own polls?  Did they really not know until 9PM?  The time when CNN had scheduled their Iowa poll special?  Not buying it.  I'm not this incompetent, and don't believe two large corporations would have been that monumentally incompetent. 

Not releasing a poll is obviously not a good look, but this certainly goes to show why hosting a TV event around a release of a single poll isn't the greatest idea (and I was looking forward to it myself).  When something happens you might simply not have enough time to see how big or not an issue that pops up might actually be.

[Tender Branson]

Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

Breaking News: Atlas' biggest Buttigieg supporter opposes releasing poll numbers called under question by Buttigieg supporter

Shocking!

[Tender Branson]

Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

Breaking News: Atlas' biggest Buttigieg supporter opposes releasing poll numbers called under question by Buttigieg supporter

Shocking!

I would say the same about scrapping the poll, if another candidate voiced concerns over conduct ...

[ElectionsGuy]

This really blows, really takes a hit on everybody's confidence in expectations going into Monday night.

[ProudModerate2]

... At the last minute, The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. announced that they would not release the results of their final poll of Iowa before Monday’s caucuses because of reports that one candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview.

So what exactly happened? The cancellation appears to be due to a complaint lodged by a senior official for the campaign of former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who said he received a call from a supporter who had not heard Buttigieg listed as an option in one of the survey calls. Selzer & Co. — the much-respected pollster behind the survey — and its partners were unable to confirm the extent of the problem, so it’s still unclear if this was an isolated incident.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/that-last-big-des-moines-register-poll-of-iowa-were-not-getting-it/

[ProudModerate2]

The only way I can see that DMR/Selzer not releasing the numbers, is due to the fact that they investigated and determined that a good number of calls made by the pollster's employees were done without Pete's name.
Otherwise, just one call with this error, could not have been significant enough for them to cancel the entire release.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1223814090713436160

NYT story up. Pretty interesting, recommend people read the whole thing. Really sad for Jo Ann Selzer.

[NOVA Green]

So is the IA DEM Caucus gig going to go back to the roots where neighbors talk to neighbors and debate and discuss the issues of the times and which candidates might best support those issues???

It's almost sad that the caucus scene has been reduced on the DEM side to a handful of states in favor of primaries....

Get the concept of primaries and increased turnout, but a certain point debate and discussion becomes nothing while meanwhile campaign with $$$ can bombard radio and TV stations as part of an air war, without ever setting grounds in our states....

Regardless of the results of the poll numbers, which we may or not ever see, unfortunately Mayor Pete will likely take the hit (Assuming this was a major dropping of the ball from the polling outfit, which appears to be the case).

If, as it appears to be the case, this problem way have well impacted other Candidates, it certainly appears appropriate to "pull the poll"...

Be it as it may be.... Iowa appears to be a Bernie vs Biden contest despite all of this drama from an A+ polling outfit that appears to have done one of the most epic recent "eff-ups" in Modern American Polling history.....

[Hollywood]

Again. After hours of thinking about it.  This doesn't make sense.  Buttigieg starts with a B.  How was it the last selection in the poll.  CNN's involvement is suspect.  They weren't a real news organization and they still aren't.  F the establishment Democrats that take them or their excuses at face value.  Bernie was leading in that poll so they pulled it.  That is the most sensible explanation. If the Dems want to unite, there you go.  IT'S BERNIE. 

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not this incompetent, and don't believe two large corporations would have been that monumentally incompetent. 

To be fair: have you ever worked for a corporation?

[Adam Griffin]

If every candidate was randomly ordered for every respondent, then one should be able to calculate the effect it would have on the broader sampling (assuming it affected a large enough number of people; if it wasn't a large number of people, then release the poll and issue a disclaimer).

[cvparty]

Again. After hours of thinking about it.  This doesn't make sense.  Buttigieg starts with a B.  How was it the last selection in the poll.  CNN's involvement is suspect.  They weren't a real news organization and they still aren't.  F the establishment Democrats that take them or their excuses at face value.  Bernie was leading in that poll so they pulled it.  That is the most sensible explanation. If the Dems want to unite, there you go.  IT'S BERNIE. 

um...randomization...?

If every candidate was randomly ordered for every respondent, then one should be able to calculate the effect it would have on the broader sampling (assuming it affected a large enough number of people; if it wasn't a large number of people, then release the poll and issue a disclaimer).

but not every interviewer made that error, so it could’ve been made in a limited number of interviews but significant enough to distort the results of the poll since the sample size is relatively small. the issue that selzer/DMR had was the level of uncertainty; as the gold standard in polling and wanting to accurately represent the views of iowans, they didn’t want to compromise their integrity by releasing what would’ve been the most-covered pre-iowa poll. i think releasing it, knowing that there was an error made and moreover not even the extent of which, would’ve been even worse optics than withholding it—obviously, neither option is desirable. i say this as a bernie supporter :p

[Skye]

This is really sad, at least we'll get the CBS/You Gov poll (and Emerson, for what *that's* worth).

The decision not to release the poll is a little strange as well (not in the conspiracy theories kind of way), but I suppose when you schedule a TV special around it that's how it's gotta be.

[bilaps]

I don't care too much for yougov and emerson, only in the sense that they will show us the trend. But even trend at Emerson is suspect, they bounce all over the place, they will probably correct their Bernie +9 to Bernie +5 or something..

I'm wondering how the hell this poll hasn't leaked yet. We constantly see national security leaks, but the DMR poll. Come on, give me a break, I really hate media.

[Holmes]

Again. After hours of thinking about it.  This doesn't make sense.  Buttigieg starts with a B.  How was it the last selection in the poll.  CNN's involvement is suspect.  They weren't a real news organization and they still aren't.  F the establishment Democrats that take them or their excuses at face value.  Bernie was leading in that poll so they pulled it.  That is the most sensible explanation. If the Dems want to unite, there you go.  IT'S BERNIE. 

Oh my god just shut up the caucus is tomorrow anyway and it's more important than one random poll.

[Tender Branson]

Leaks:

Apparently, the poll showed Warren gaining and Bernie collapsing.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5868908/selzer-poll-bernie-sanders-free-fall

[Beezer]

My sources have revealed to me that Bloomberg is leading with 71% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

NBC has no IA poll today, it’s a national one:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-country-remains-divided-over-trump-s-impeachment-n1128326

[Eraserhead]

Leaks:

Apparently, the poll showed Warren gaining and Bernie collapsing.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5868908/selzer-poll-bernie-sanders-free-fall

lmao. Oh yeah, that sounds totally legit...

[Farmlands]

Leaks:

Apparently, the poll showed Warren gaining and Bernie collapsing.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5868908/selzer-poll-bernie-sanders-free-fall

lmao. Oh yeah, that sounds totally legit...

I like how Watson quotes the booing as part of the reason for the downfall, when that clearly would've happened entirely after the poll was conducted. Safe to say, he's full of crap and should be ashamed.