KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[kph14]

The Associated Press expects a delay in vote tabulation and race calls because a large number of voters cast absentee ballots. These ballots will be tabulated on June 30. Precincts reporting figures do not include these ballots.

I just read this on one NYT results page. Apparently absentee ballots wont be counted until next week! What a disgrace!

[KaiserDave]

Disgraceful! We need more polling stations and faster tabulation!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1275570907310891008?s=20

Reminder. Obviously some of these votes are republicans, and not all expected ballots will be returned. Some counties will count absentees tonight. Others, most notably the Big ones, will not.

[n1240]

Any county that isn't close 100% of their 2016 primary total should be assumed to be election day vote only.

[KaiserDave]

I will say this, the eastern Kentucky returns look quite bad for McGrath. She will need to do better in Jefferson county to make up some of these losses.

[KaiserDave]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

[n1240]

I will say this, the eastern Kentucky returns look quite bad for McGrath. She will need to do better in Jefferson county to make up some of these losses.

She's doing fine in the counties that have absentees included in their totals. Problem is we don't really know the absentee/eday split in those counties to determine how much better McGrath is doing in absentees over eday.

[anthonyjg]

Booker ahead in critical suburbs for now

That Kenton number stunned me. Even though it will eventually narrow, that should be right in McGrath’s wheelhouse

You can't draw to too many conclusions tonight! I expect Booker potentially ahead at the end of this Night because of the In-Person Vote. Will that hold up when the Absentee Votes are counted later this week. I seriously doubt it!

NBC has only 15 % of Kenton in while AP has 100 %.

Completely agree. I’ll be watching Boone closely to see how legitimate that number might be. Kenton in particular caught my eye because I’d expect McGrath to clean up there. I’m sure she’ll take the lead with absentee ballots, the question is just is it nearly enough to compensate for Louisville.

[Gass3268]

Jefferson/Fayette will not release any votes tonight.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1275568885169704960?s=20

[NOVA Green]

For anyone frustrated by what will likely be an uncertain results tonight for the KY-DEM-PRIM, and possibly even longer as a result of a dramatic growth in Vote-By-Mail combined with much smaller # of precincts in the largest counties (although apparently efficiently run).

We are looking at potentially record total turnout for a KY PRIM, where neither national party has a competitive Presidential Race....

As an Oregonian used to Vote-by-Mail, I tend to prefer my elections like a smooth "creeper wine", or possibly a good Canadian "sipping Bourbon", or possibly even like a really good intense and intimate romantic physical encounter....

Let the results build up slowly, hit a mid point of dramatic tension with a final peak, and then gradually the blood pressure slows down and the euphoric high kicks in, and then the gradual downhill climb from the Mountain, with still potential suspense and uncertainty hovering in the air....

This will be the new norm in America, and although we might not always get our immediate gratification, I would rather go with a long and slow roll versus the final "Firework Finale" getting shot off 5 Minutes into the experience....

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Booker ahead in critical suburbs for now

That Kenton number stunned me. Even though it will eventually narrow, that should be right in McGrath’s wheelhouse

You can't draw to too many conclusions tonight! I expect Booker potentially ahead at the end of this Night because of the In-Person Vote. Will that hold up when the Absentee Votes are counted later this week. I seriously doubt it!

NBC has only 15 % of Kenton in while AP has 100 %.

Read you dolt

[NOVA Green]

Any bets on same-day out of Campbell County?

Boone was narrow McGrath, but Kenton heavily Booker....

All three counties are roughly 89-92% Anglo....

[Mr. Smith]

Any bets on same-day out of Campbell County?

Boone was narrow McGrath, but Kenton heavily Booker....

All three counties are roughly 89-92% Anglo....

Probably Booker for that precise reason.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1275574879916605441

[Alben Barkley]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine Jefferson* County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

*Clearly I've had too much bourbon tonight...

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1275574879916605441

...Based on the same day voting only. Doubt that will hold in the end.

[NOVA Green]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

Do we have any idea of how many ballots were cast by day by county?

Reason I ask, is that for example when I was covering some elections in AZ, it was really easy to pull up how many ballot were received each day, partisan breakdown etc, by county...

We have something similar in OR.

So the concept of early VbM vs late VbM could obviously make a difference with the composition of the electorate, as well as individuals who might have voted through VbM during a period where Booker was surging....

[Alben Barkley]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

I don't really like either of them. McGrath is clearly a weak candidate. If that wasn't clear before (it was to this KY-06 Jim Gray voter, who was indeed kind of pissed that in 2018 she came out of nowhere and spoiled the race for a great mayor), it certainly should be if she barely beats a guy no one had heard of a week ago despite having all the money and DSCC support on her side.

But Booker is even more DOA in this state than she is. The kind of "populism" supported by the Sunrise Movement does not play well in most of Kentucky. It's really just a matter of who will lose to McConnell and by how much.

I don't know, at this point I'm kind of hoping both will somehow lose. I voted for McGrath weeks ago, reluctantly. But I'm not even sure I still would today. I will have some schadenfreude if she ends up losing to an upstart in a similar fashion to what she did to Jim Gray. And yeah, Booker is at least a real Kentuckian.

All I know for sure is I REALLY wish Rocky Adkins or even Matt Jones had run, and I'm pissed at Schumer for apparently picking McGrath over Jones. If he had bothered to ask me or anyone else who lives in her district, we would have told him how bad a candidate she was. Her flashy Marine fighter ads couldn't make up for that. She totally blew that very winnable seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

Not necessarily. Some counties may not even report their election day votes today.

[KaiserDave]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

I don't really like either of them. McGrath is clearly a weak candidate. If that wasn't clear before (it was to this KY-06 Jim Gray voter, who was indeed kind of pissed that in 2018 she came out of nowhere and spoiled the race for a great mayor), it certainly should be if she barely beats a guy no one had heard of a week ago despite having all the money and DSCC support on her side.

But Booker is even more DOA in this state than she is. The kind of "populism" supported by the Sunrise Movement does not play well in most of Kentucky. It's really just a matter of who will lose to McConnell and by how much.

I don't know, at this point I'm kind of hoping both will somehow lose. I voted for McGrath weeks ago, reluctantly. But I'm not even sure I still would today. I will have some schadenfreude if she ends up losing to an upstart in a similar fashion to what she did to Jim Gray. And yeah, Booker is at least a real Kentuckian.

All I know for sure is I REALLY wish Rocky Adkins or even Matt Jones had run, and I'm pissed at Schumer for apparently picking McGrath over Jones. If he had bothered to ask me or anyone else who lives in her district, we would have told him how bad a candidate she was. Her flashy Marine fighter ads couldn't make up for that. She totally blew that very winnable seat.

I agree that both are unelectable, and I agree completely that Rocky Adkins would be an amazing candidate. And when I meant populist, I didn't mean Sunrise so much as Grimes (although her populist cred is eh).

Yeah, Dems whiffed on this racer by no getting Adkins.

[NOVA Green]

So we still have some big looking Counties out there in terms of RAW Votes:

Christian County (41 Precincts)
Henderson County (45 Precincts)
Warren County   (88 Precincts)
Hardin County   (59 Precincts)
Campbell County (67 Precincts)
Franklin County (44 Precincts)


etc....

We also have some significant precincts in SE and NE KY, which don't necessarily show tons of DEM-SEN PRIM Votes yet....

Any ideas about these Counties?

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1275587864399675392

fairly small eday vote in Fayette but Booker dominates.

[2016]

If Kentucky is a PREVIEW what's to come in November we may not know the answer who will be the next POTUS for Days, even weeks UNLESS Biden wins by 6-10 Points nationally and his Poll-lead, he has right now holds up until Nov 3rd.

Well, Democrats wanted this Absentee Nonsense and they have to live by it.

[NOVA Green]

If Kentucky is a PREVIEW what's to come in November we may not know the answer who will be the next POTUS for Days, even weeks UNLESS Biden wins by 6-10 Points nationally and his Poll-lead, he has right now holds up until Nov 3rd.

Well, Democrats wanted this Absentee Nonsense and they have to live by it.

For anyone frustrated by what will likely be an uncertain results tonight for the KY-DEM-PRIM, and possibly even longer as a result of a dramatic growth in Vote-By-Mail combined with much smaller # of precincts in the largest counties (although apparently efficiently run).

We are looking at potentially record total turnout for a KY PRIM, where neither national party has a competitive Presidential Race....

As an Oregonian used to Vote-by-Mail, I tend to prefer my elections like a smooth "creeper wine", or possibly a good Canadian "sipping Bourbon", or possibly even like a really good intense and intimate romantic physical encounter....

Let the results build up slowly, hit a mid point of dramatic tension with a final peak, and then gradually the blood pressure slows down and the euphoric high kicks in, and then the gradual downhill climb from the Mountain, with still potential suspense and uncertainty hovering in the air....

This will be the new norm in America, and although we might not always get our immediate gratification, I would rather go with a long and slow roll versus the final "Firework Finale" getting shot off 5 Minutes into the experience....

[Xing]

While I expect McGrath to do better among early votes, Booker really has a chance if he dominates in Jefferson. Obviously either have no chance against McConnell, but it’s hard to argue that Booker isn’t the better candidate.