KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[KaiserDave]

Full support to Rocky Adkins. He might make it Likely R.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

I mean, that's great and humiliating for Cocaine Mitch, but, it doesn't really matter.

[KaiserDave]

Mcconnel could raise a penny and still win by double digits in a mega recession

Against McGrath he would still win, but against Adkins? I honestly think he could be beaten in a recession.

He won in the midst of the 2008 recession, and that was at a time when Kentucky was still somewhat friendly to Democrats down-ballot.

And when it was "only" McCain +15 vs. Trump +30.

But...but....if we nominate someone who is #populist all the Trump voters will magically become progressive Dems!!!!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

Yes, it seems Republicans are being much smarter about where they are putting their resources than democrats are. Watch us lose NC (and thus the majority) by like 500 votes or something like that all because Cunningham is woefully underfunded while McGrath meanwhile raised more than what he’s raised in a single day

Kentucky is more likely to flip than Kansas because reasons!

[KaiserDave]

I mean, I've spoken to Bernie fans who say Bernie will make the south competitive because M4A will turn them all into progressives...

[KaiserDave]

I mean, I've spoken to Bernie fans who say Bernie will make the south competitive because M4A will turn them all into progressives...

Who on this site has said this?

There are a sizable amount of people who are not on Atlas. Obviously you don't need to believe me, but there are people who are convinced progressive candidates could flip obviously Safe R states.

[KaiserDave]

I mean, I've spoken to Bernie fans who say Bernie will make the south competitive because M4A will turn them all into progressives...

Who on this site has said this?

There are a sizable amount of people who are not on Atlas. Obviously you don't need to believe me, but there are people who are convinced progressive candidates could flip obviously Safe R states.

If they're not posting here what's the point of sarcastically "calling them out" on this site?

I'm using them as examples of some people who fall into the type I described above.

[KaiserDave]

Safe R with McGrath, she is running a terrible campaign and couldn't win KY-6 in a Democratic wave. Likely R with Adkins, who is a far more competent candidate who will do much better in eastern Kentucky. However, McConnell is not losing regardless.

[KaiserDave]

Not Rocky. Not a chance of making this anything other than Safe R.

[KaiserDave]

I'd say if the race was held today McConnell wins 55-45 or so. Depending on the national environment, this could get as close to 53-47 or 52-48, but barring scandals or any new degree of sleaze we haven't yet seen from Moscow Mitch, I fail to see how Jones would outright beat McConnell. Adkins is probably the only one who could.

Adkins is our only hope. But I maintain he'll still lose.

[KaiserDave]

Rocky's a good soul to take a job in the admin, but this both gives up his seat and loses our best hope for Senate.

Whelp, Safe R

[KaiserDave]

Rocky's a good soul to take a job in the admin, but this both gives up his seat and loses our best hope for Senate.

Whelp, Safe R

It was always Safe R. A McConnell demolition of McGrath is all but assured at this point, as neither Adkins nor Gray will be running for the seat.

Oh yes I agree. Rocky I'd say makes it Likely, but McGrath was always going to be crushed.

[KaiserDave]

I like Charles a bit, but McConnell would destroy him on supporting GND.

[KaiserDave]

I like Charles a bit, but McConnell would destroy him on supporting GND.

He'll also destroy McGrath on supporting the GND, because even if she says she doesn't, she'll have close to zero credibility with too many voters. Booker could at least conceivably have a political future in KY and could benefit from a well-run campaign.

Fair, but I doubt Booker does any better than she would do.

[KaiserDave]

If she loses it will be hilarious

[KaiserDave]

Matt Jones and Rocky Adkins should have run.

My #analysis

Mitch vs Amy: Mitch +15
Mitch vs Booker: Mitch +16
Mitch vs Adkins: Mitch +7

[KaiserDave]

Day 1 Biden and Dem Congress needs to make election day a federal holiday.

[KaiserDave]

Elliot County to McGrath! But only by 18 votes...her margins in blue collar counties are bad.

[KaiserDave]

Disgraceful! We need more polling stations and faster tabulation!

[KaiserDave]

I will say this, the eastern Kentucky returns look quite bad for McGrath. She will need to do better in Jefferson county to make up some of these losses.

[KaiserDave]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

[KaiserDave]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

I don't really like either of them. McGrath is clearly a weak candidate. If that wasn't clear before (it was to this KY-06 Jim Gray voter, who was indeed kind of pissed that in 2018 she came out of nowhere and spoiled the race for a great mayor), it certainly should be if she barely beats a guy no one had heard of a week ago despite having all the money and DSCC support on her side.

But Booker is even more DOA in this state than she is. The kind of "populism" supported by the Sunrise Movement does not play well in most of Kentucky. It's really just a matter of who will lose to McConnell and by how much.

I don't know, at this point I'm kind of hoping both will somehow lose. I voted for McGrath weeks ago, reluctantly. But I'm not even sure I still would today. I will have some schadenfreude if she ends up losing to an upstart in a similar fashion to what she did to Jim Gray. And yeah, Booker is at least a real Kentuckian.

All I know for sure is I REALLY wish Rocky Adkins or even Matt Jones had run, and I'm pissed at Schumer for apparently picking McGrath over Jones. If he had bothered to ask me or anyone else who lives in her district, we would have told him how bad a candidate she was. Her flashy Marine fighter ads couldn't make up for that. She totally blew that very winnable seat.

I agree that both are unelectable, and I agree completely that Rocky Adkins would be an amazing candidate. And when I meant populist, I didn't mean Sunrise so much as Grimes (although her populist cred is eh).

Yeah, Dems whiffed on this racer by no getting Adkins.

[KaiserDave]

McGrath sucks and will lose, what else is new. Hopefully she retires with her bags of taxpayer pension money after this election. Maybe Kentuckyites will do the smart thing next time and nominate Booker who would have won in a normal year.

I wanted Booker too but there is no way a black guy wins in Kentucky. Especially not one with left policies like the GND.

McConnell and co would have a field day.

[KaiserDave]

All the donors to Amy

[KaiserDave]

She's an epic joke