Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/GAFollowers/status/1252381339837362176?s=20

Keisha Bottoms 2022!

Abrams is clearly over Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

212488   69.28% Democratic
91623      29.87% Republican
1625        0.53% Non-Partisan
968          0.32% Unknown

RIP Democrats having any advantage in the primary:

As of 4/21, 653,211 ballots have been cast or requested for the June presidential primary. This appears to exclude the ~350,000 ballots cast prior to the cancellation/merger of the March presidential & May state primaries, which means some/many of these individuals will be duplicates (i.e. individuals who voted in the pres primary before the merger will get to vote again separately for the state contests). As one example, I am on the new state list for my June ballot, but not for my March ballot. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

364464   55.80% Republican
268538    41.11% Democratic
19272      2.95% Non-Partisan
937          0.14% Unknown

[GeorgiaModerate]

Among many interesting questions on the virus response in a new AJC/UGA poll:

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of Gov. Brian Kemp’s plans to reopen Georgia businesses in the next few days?

Strongly disapprove — 43%

Somewhat disapprove — 19%

Neutral — 14%

Somewhat approve — 14%

Strongly approve — 10%

[Continential]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

[Quincy Kelley]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

[Adam Griffin]

An internal poll conducted for the Georgia House GOP Caucus points to troubling signs for Republican leaders: President Donald Trump is deadlocked with Joe Biden and voters aren’t giving the White House, Gov. Brian Kemp or the Legislature high marks for the coronavirus response.

The poll also suggests trouble for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, showing the former financial executive with 11% of the vote and essentially tied with Democrats Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins leads the November field with 29% of the vote, and outdoes Loeffler among Republicans by a 62-18 margin.

• Voters are evenly split on Trump, but Kemp’s disapproval rating (52%) outweigh his approval rating (43%). Loeffler is deeper underwater after grappling with an uproar over her stock transactions during the pandemic, with an approval of 20% and disapproval of 47%. Collins’ approval rating is about 10 percentage points higher than his disapproval.

• Georgians say their top priority is controlling the spread of the coronavirus and returning life to normal (35%), followed by rebuilding the economy (25%) and providing access to affordable, quality healthcare (17%).

• Trump and Biden are in a statistical tie in the race for president, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 44%. Only about 5% of Georgians are undecided, and another 6% back a third-party candidate.

• U.S. Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 45-39 in a head-to-head matchup, with 12% of voters undecided.  

• More Georgians said they were most concerned with public health (60%) than the economic impact (36%) of the pandemic.  

• A majority of voters disapprove of the way Trump (51%) and Kemp (54%) are handling the pandemic. The General Assembly barely breaks even on the question, and many voters signaled they don’t know what lawmakers are doing.

• About 58% of voters said Georgia is moving “too quickly” to ease restrictions, though most (54%) back social-distancing measures and business closures.

• A plurality of votes (34%) think the “worst is yet to come” from the pandemic, while only about 22% think the worst is over. About 30% feel “we’re in the middle of the worst right now.”

• Most Georgians feel social distancing policies should continue at least a few more weeks, if not months, and only about 15% contend the state should “open everything now.”

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/

[skbl17]

Wow, Kemp's overall approvals are underwater, never mind his COVID-specific approvals.

Also, I feel really comfortable with my prediction that Loeffler will not be a senator come January.

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Far, far too early to tell. Frankly, I think it would be a tossup based on current trends, but we'll see.

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

With Metro Atlanta voting the way it is nowadays, even if Kemp wins reelection (a major question mark, even if Biden is president,) it won't be by anywhere near "double digits". The best any Republican governor has done in this state was Perdue's 15-point win in 2006, and the margins have shrunk in every midterm since, red waves included.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

Nathan Deal, who was far more popular with Dems and Indies only won by 8 during Obama's Six Year Itch midterm. What you wrote is a fantasy. LOL.

[QAnonKelly]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

Lol ppl don’t win by double digits around here

[wbrocks67]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

[Quincy Kelley]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

By 2022: people will forget about his poor handling of this crisis.

[ON Progressive]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

By 2022: people will forget about his poor handling of this crisis.

Even if that is true, there's nothing that guarantees something like a very unpopular budget or something couldn't drag his popularity down big time.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

By 2022: people will forget about his poor handling of this crisis.

Even if that is true, there's nothing that guarantees something like a very unpopular budget or something couldn't drag his popularity down big time.

Speaking of which, Brian Kemp warns of "Brutal" Budget Cuts

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

By 2022: people will forget about his poor handling of this crisis.

Even if that is true, there's nothing that guarantees something like a very unpopular budget or something couldn't drag his popularity down big time.

Speaking of which, Brian Kemp warns of "Brutal" Budget Cuts

He’s been itching to cut the budget since he got in. Georgia’s economy has been booming as much as anyone’s, but he was determined to come in and cut taxes and cut spending. My department at UGA was ordered to cut 6% from out budget and he ordered a “hiring freeze that we can’t call a hiring freeze” for the entire University System. This was all back in January.

[Adam Griffin]

Rep. David Scott skips debate with Democratic challengers in 13th District

There was one glaring absence from Monday’s debate featuring Democratic candidates for Georgia’s 13th Congressional District: incumbent U.S. Rep. David Scott.

The other three candidates, including a former mayor, a former county party chairman and a former state representative said Scott’s decision not to participate was just one more example of why the believe he should be replaced.

I really wish there was a chance for an upset here. Michael Owens is a good guy and would be a far better representative of the district than "blue dog" Scott ever could hope to be.

[QAnonKelly]

Edit: This doesn’t seem to be true so I’m deleting it. Should have looked into it better.  Sorry.

[Yellowhammer]

Here’s a pic of Kemp and the dad who’s been charged with the murder of Ahmaud Arbery

I'm pretty sure this is fake news. This is the shooter:



Quite obviously not the same person.

[Sailor Haumea]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

[lfromnj]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

[Sailor Haumea]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

[lfromnj]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

Again military base lol- which is mostly young men.

[skbl17]

General Assembly session resumes June 11; committee meetings can resume June 2.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1260322874080067593

Meanwhile, Kemp's COVID approvals are...well, let's just say that he's lucky the calendar says May 2020 and not May 2022. Apparently, his COVID-related approval number is 39% according to a new WaPo-Ipsos poll, with 61% disapproving.

Ratings for Kemp suffer from a difficult combination: overwhelming disapproval among Georgia Democrats, and lukewarm approval among Republicans.

A few caveats: this is a poll of 219 Georgia adults, undecideds/"don't knows" are excluded in coming to that 39/61 number, and this is COVID-specific, not Kemp's overall approval rating.

[Adam Griffin]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

Again military base lol- which is mostly young men.

Well, yes and no.

There are over 100,000 people working, training and/or living in Fort Benning. That's a huge presence - yet Chattahoochee County only put up around 1,500 votes in 2016. The vast majority of Chattahoochee County (and like half of Muscogee County) land is Fort Benning. The area in red is the part of Chattahoochee where typical residents can be found (currently around 10,000).



The rest - to my knowledge - are not casting votes in Chattahoochee County unless they work on-base and live in the civilian segment of Chattahoochee as well (i.e. like any normal resident). Even among military turnout, something like 1% of Fort Benning would be unimaginable. Of course, the vast majority are either commuting in from other counties to work or are still registered in their home jurisdictions from pre-deployment/training.

A certain segment of young servicemembers do actually register to vote in the county (whether it be on-base or they live in the non-base segment of the county). In 2016, 18-29 year-olds made up 27% of registered voters (compared to 17% of votes), while 55 and up was 20% of RVs (despite being 37% of voters).

So basically, a large chunk of people voting in Chattahoochee are non-military (or at least "traditional residents", living off-base, owning/renting homes, etc) - but there's also a small number of servicemembers who are registered to vote (and who actually do vote) in the county.

However, the military presence in voting isn't actually that big of a factor here - look at how 18-29s were only 17% of the electorate, as opposed to like 18% nationally. You might be able to argue that the older servicemembers living here are more D than their native Chattahoochee cohorts, but that's a different discussion entirely.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

Again military base lol- which is mostly young men.

Well, Fort Benning is mostly a training camp so of course, the demographics will be young men but it also prone to large population swings depending on the military budget. I don't think anything can really be read into it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t feel like doing the math so I hope someone has already done this but if you remove Metro Atlanta how many points did Abrams lose by?

This graphic made me think about that. I find it interesting that Tomlinson didn’t disclose how she performed outside of the Metro. Every Democrat will lose this way but I guess she’s saying she’ll lose by less.