Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1269981661531443201?s=20

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1269981661531443201?s=20

That's quite impressive! Hopefully, we'll something similar this upcoming fall.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems took the advantage in early voting yesterday.

The spike in black turnout is probably driving that.

https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1270021023962988545?s=21

[libertpaulian]

Georgia is going blue this November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

If I had to guess the Gwinnett County margin today, I would have guessed Biden +20, even before seeing this stat

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

If I had to guess the Gwinnett County margin today, I would have guessed Biden +20, even before seeing this stat

Is there a county anywhere in the country that is shifting R > D faster than Gwinnett? I can't think of any.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

If I had to guess the Gwinnett County margin today, I would have guessed Biden +20, even before seeing this stat

Is there a county anywhere in the country that is shifting R > D faster than Gwinnett? I can't think of any.

Williamson County, TX; Collin County, TX; and Hays County, TX come to mind. They've all swung around 25 points from 2012 to 2018.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

I'm surprised Cobb isn't a bigger margin considering the other counties. I also wasn't expecting Fayette to be close to flipping until 2024 or 2028, but who knows, maybe the automatic voter registration there is speeding things up

[Dr. Arch]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

I'm surprised Cobb isn't a bigger margin considering the other counties. I also wasn't expecting Fayette to be close to flipping until 2024 or 2028, but who knows, maybe the automatic voter registration there is speeding things up

Will Fayette finally go? The big question.

[Gass3268]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

Where did you get those? Always knew Fayette would be next.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

Where did you get those? Always knew Fayette would be next.

http://georgiavotes.com

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just saw somebody on Twitter say that, so far, turnout for the GA Republican primary in Gwinnett is down 62% from 2016.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

What about Forsyth County?

67-31

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My two counties are:


Clarke: 75-23.7 Dem
Harris: 63.2-35.3 GOP

[GeorgiaModerate]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

What about Forsyth County?

67-31

My county.  I'll be bold and predict Trump wins it by less than 2:1 in November.   It was almost 3:1 in 2016 (71.7-24.1).

[Adam Griffin]

Statewide margins seem indicative of GA being flippable this year (just like the EV March pre-cancelled primary figures indicated).

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

I really wish we could have completed the presidential primary as a separate contest for analysis. This year's is so unprecedented and such a hybrid that it mucks up comparisons.  

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

What about Forsyth County?

67-31

My county.  I'll be bold and predict Trump wins it by less than 2:1 in November.   It was almost 3:1 in 2016 (71.7-24.1).

That would almost definitely indicate a Biden win statewide

[skbl17]

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

Agreed. I don't think you'll see any insane outliers this time (like solidly-R Clinch County voting 75% Dem in the 2018 primary due to local factors,) so the county map based on which counties vote for which party will look fairly typical for a two-party race in Georgia.

You're right that the margins are going to be inflated in quite a few counties, though. For example, Burke County, even if Biden wins it this year, is not going 68-30 Dem. Likewise, Baker County is not going 90-10 Dem.

[Adam Griffin]

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

Agreed. I don't think you'll see any insane outliers this time (like solidly-R Clinch County voting 75% Dem in the 2018 primary due to local factors,) so the county map based on which counties vote for which party will look fairly typical for a two-party race in Georgia.

You're right that the margins are going to be inflated in quite a few counties, though. For example, Burke County, even if Biden wins it this year, is not going 68-30 Dem. Likewise, Baker County is not going 90-10 Dem.

Taking a look at even the still-quite R-but-D-trending suburban counties, the margins are insane. Down by 2 in Fayette (Kemp +13)? Down by 8 in Houston (Kemp +17)?

If one just looked at the metros and suburban counties (which are a big part of the state, of course) and guessed on that, they tell a story of Democrats winning by 6-8 points, rather than one where Democrats are up by a half-point; that's only 2 points better margin-wise than 2018 GE. That doesn't even include the smattering of heavily-D small counties like you mentioned as well.

At any rate, it probably balances out overall and the statewide margin is likely quite close to current GE reality.

[Oryxslayer]

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

Agreed. I don't think you'll see any insane outliers this time (like solidly-R Clinch County voting 75% Dem in the 2018 primary due to local factors,) so the county map based on which counties vote for which party will look fairly typical for a two-party race in Georgia.

You're right that the margins are going to be inflated in quite a few counties, though. For example, Burke County, even if Biden wins it this year, is not going 68-30 Dem. Likewise, Baker County is not going 90-10 Dem.

Taking a look at even the still-quite R-but-D-trending suburban counties, the margins are insane. Down by 2 in Fayette (Kemp +13)? Down by 8 in Houston (Kemp +17)?

If one just looked at the metros and suburban counties (which are a big part of the state, of course) and guessed on that, they tell a story of Democrats winning by 6-8 points, rather than one where Democrats are up by a half-point; that's only 2 points better margin-wise than 2018 GE. That doesn't even include the smattering of heavily-D small counties like you mentioned as well.

At any rate, it probably balances out overall and the statewide margin is likely quite close to current GE reality.

I would say it tells a story of suburban Dem's being excited and activated, something that has been obvious since Virginia, especially when compared to their republican brethren. Excitement can also explain some of the one-party domination when it comes to their strongholds, since voters are less encouraged to turnout if the only people on your ticket are nobodies who cannot win. obviously this would be a different story if the presidential contests were still relevant, but those are more or less wrapped up.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I just saw somebody on Twitter say that, so far, turnout for the GA Republican primary in Gwinnett is down 62% from 2016.

To be fair, the GOP primary was actually competitive then. Interestingly, Rubio won metro Atlanta in 2016.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

[ON Progressive]

Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

This does make sense with the county numbers we're seeing, but where are you finding the data for CDs specifically?

http://georgiavotes.com/ doesn't have any partisan breakdown for CDs unfortunately.