Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

Yeah, turnout in the rurals for absentees was bad, but it wouldn't take much on election day for those numbers to be close to normal.

If absentees are down by THAT much across the board in an election where the proportional share of absentee votes is way up due to the current health crisis, I don't expect in-person voting to even come close to making up for it.

Meh. I suspect people in rural areas (probably correctly) assume the virus is not widespread where they live, and therefore assume that in person voting is fine.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe this wasn't quite as much of a clown show as originally assumed?

[Gass3268]

Maybe this wasn't quite as much of a clown show as originally assumed?

No, it still was, it's just many people fought through it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I would imagine we'll know soon whether there was a significant urban vs. rural turnout differential, on the basis that if the GOP think they're losing and want to get the results annulled, it'll be easier to do if they put the case in before rather than after the results are announced.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247982002499989505?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247987065431736320?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247987065431736320?s=20

It looks like the electoral disenfranchisement acrobatics might have just backfired stupendously on Republicans.

[voice_of_resistance]

Neenah and Wausau aren't exactly D cities though. Doesn't bode well for Karofsky.

[Dr. Arch]

Neenah and Wausau aren't exactly D cities though. Doesn't bode well for Karofsky.

The cities themselves vote several points to the left of the state. Their counties, not so much. Baldwin, Evers, etc. have all carried these cities, and high turnout in cities usually is better news for Democrats (and even more so for 'non-Democrat' judges supported by Democrats [see Neubauer]).

[Stockdale for Veep]

Already preparing myself in the event of an upset that the whole thing gets voided. The gop will point to Dane's # of polling places, and that will be enough for "moderate" Roberts.

[walleye26]

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

[Dr. Arch]

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

So the city turned out heavily, but the rurals cratered.

[walleye26]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247883118255591428

From Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel: MKE has now returned more absentees than last years SCOWIS race. Same is true in Kenosha, and Waukesha, Walworth, and Dane are close.

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247883118255591428

From Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel: MKE has now returned more absentees than last years SCOWIS race. Same is true in Kenosha, and Waukesha, Walworth, and Dane are close.

Let there be poetic justice.

[ajc0918]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247883118255591428

From Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel: MKE has now returned more absentees than last years SCOWIS race. Same is true in Kenosha, and Waukesha, Walworth, and Dane are close.

Can someone translate this for me?

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247883118255591428

From Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel: MKE has now returned more absentees than last years SCOWIS race. Same is true in Kenosha, and Waukesha, Walworth, and Dane are close.

Can someone translate this for me?

Cities turning out in high or record numbers despite disenfranchisement efforts by Republicans. WOW vying to stay competitive, but the rurals in the state fell significantly.

Things aren't as rosy for Kelly as we thought they would be.

[pppolitics]

What does 'WOW' stands for?

[Gass3268]

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

So the city turned out heavily, but the rurals cratered.

Yeah, if that's the case for other northern counties...

[Atlas Force]

What does 'WOW' stands for?

Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington Counties

[walleye26]

What does 'WOW' stands for?

Those three counties are the base of WI’s GOP. They give like 70% of their vote to the GOP.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race is Lean R

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

So the city turned out heavily, but the rurals cratered.

Yeah, if that's the case for other northern counties...

The article reports 47% turnout in city of Eau Claire among registered voters, but in the county as a whole 34% of eligible voters. I don't think those are the same thing. Turnout would have to be only around 10% in the rest of Eau Claire county to get to the 34% number countywide. That is not only unlikely it is unreasonable if they are consistent metrics.

Regardless, it wouldn't be surprising to have higher turnout in Dem cities like Eau Claire for what was still a contested Dem primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DO WE HAVE ANY WORDS FROM THE MEAN STREETS OF INNER CITY WAUPACA?! NO I DONT DO DRUNK POSTING

[wbrocks67]

So can someone tl;dr the latest findings for all of us? Does it appear, from everything we know, that turnout seemed better then in the cities/suburbs than the more R-areas? or no?

[MasterJedi]

Evers closed the state parks today because all parks are packed with people ignoring social distancing because they think they can go outside. Rumblings are beginning of the Republicans ready to fight an extension of the 4/23 end date for the safer at home order.

Guaranteed Evers will extend it, I'm sure Republicans will fight it and have it overturned in the WI SC and then a big second wave spike to hit but they'll be ok with it because the economy will be "back".