2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[pppolitics]

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

Well, I havent answered it because you havent given me a winning formula yet. 3 Wins by people on different parts of the ideological spectrum after one election doesnt mean we should follow what pattern for picking candidates. This should be obvious. Just because the last candidate to win GA Senate was an extremely Conservative Democrat doesnt mean we should only run Conservative Democrats in GA.

The voters are there for any Democrat of any stripe to win in AZ, its really not that hard, nor difficult for a Progressive, Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative to win. If you say that we shouldnt run women in VT because the office holders are all men, and the one woman who ran in 2018 lost against Phil Scott, it ignores all other factors that point to why the win occurred in the first place.

We have already had this conversation before, there have been multiple studies on this, I have already addressed the facts in this very thread. If you just like moderates, then say that. You dont have to keep espousing this false idea that voters care about whatever faction the Democrat is part of. (Sinema was literally still painted as a Socialist Firebrand).

Democrats hasn't won statewide in Georgia in years.

Democrats have won stateside in Arizona just last year.

None of the candidates that won statewide in AZ were progressives.

.....You completely missed the point.......


Anyway, I should correct, Hoffman won in 2018, and she was a Progressive, though I consider her a Pragmatic Progressive.

Not sure why Hoffman would be a "progressive", but more to the point...

It's not so much what someone actually believes in, as it is how he/she presents himself/herself that actually wins elections.

For example, Sinema is probably a left wing liberal (being an ex-Green candidate, after all), but she presents herself as this moderate, middle of the road Democrat.

[pppolitics]

Kathy Hoffman is very left-wing, actually - Moreso than Gallego!

So is Hobbs, but they didn’t run their campaigns around that. They ran them focused on restoring competency to their respective offices

It's not so much what someone actually believes in, as it is how he/she presents himself/herself that actually wins elections.

For example, Sinema is probably a left wing liberal (being an ex-Green candidate, after all), but she presents herself as this moderate, middle of the road Democrat.

[pppolitics]

who care

You do, otherwise you wouldn't have replied

[_]

who care

You do, otherwise you wouldn't have replied

Not at all a confirmation that I'm interested in Sinema's personal beliefs from two decades ago when she's racked such an indefensible legislative record even with recognition that she represents a swing seat. Am I supposed to defend Macron's economic programme because he supported Chevènement in 2002 and could theoretically still be sympathetic to left-wing policies?

Straw Man

(This was sarcasm in case it wasn't obvious)

[pppolitics]

who care

You do, otherwise you wouldn't have replied

Not at all a confirmation that I'm interested in Sinema's personal beliefs from two decades ago when she's racked such an indefensible legislative record even with recognition that she represents a swing seat. Am I supposed to defend Macron's economic programme because he supported Chevènement in 2002 and could theoretically still be sympathetic to left-wing policies?

Straw Man

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

Of course, its not that simple. I mean, Sinema would also have been blown out of the water if she was facing a popular incumbent governor who had a 60% approval rating. Not to mention, Sinema would have little/no money to work with, and would be completely blocked out of the airwaves.

Its not an equal equivalency.

Besides, you have to remember what Garcia's position was before he ran. He was the state superintendent, the position Hoffman won last November. He clearly wasnt incapable of winning statewide. He was just against a brick wall with no resources to work with. Anyone would be screwed with such a situation.

Fact of the matter is that no "progressive" has won.

Candidates such as Sinema, Hobbs, and Hoffman won.

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

So, according to you, the winning formula is to run a Blue Dog, a Standard Democrat, and a Pragmatic Progressive to win elections, but you cant run a Pragmatic Progressive or a Progressive if they dont win? Seems like a pretty garbage formula, one that is based off of one instance.

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

Because there are people that are very sick and cannot afford healthcare in this country because insurance companies don't want to pay for it. CEOS are making record profits while we the taxpayer have to pay for their employees welfare because they aren't paid a living wage! I want to get out of the war in Afghanistan! I want people to not have to be burdened by debt once they get out of college! And I believe Gallego will deliver on these issues better then Kelly will.

And as to whether Gallego is electable, I am predicting that Kamala Harris is going to be the democratic nominee for president(not my choice but it seems obvious). I am fairly confident she will win the state of Arizona against Trump. I highly doubt Martha McSally, who I'm sure the voters are tired of already after having voted her out, is not going to outrun Donald Trump. Gallego/Kelly would both win in this scenario.

[_]

Because there are people that are very sick and cannot afford healthcare in this country because insurance companies don't want to pay for it. CEOS are making record profits while we the taxpayer have to pay for their employees welfare because they aren't paid a living wage! I want to get out of the war in Afghanistan! I want people to not have to be burdened by debt once they get out of college! And I believe Gallego will deliver on these issues better then Kelly will.

And as to whether Gallego is electable, I am predicting that Kamala Harris is going to be the democratic nominee for president(not my choice but it seems obvious). I am fairly confident she will win the state of Arizona against Trump. I highly doubt Martha McSally, who I'm sure the voters are tired of already after having voted her out, is not going to outrun Donald Trump. Gallego/Kelly would both win in this scenario.

Straw Man, go run in Colorado, the end.
Another Radical Leftist owned by my Moderate FF logic.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly/status/1095722143906549761

Very good haul to start off with.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Regarding Arizona's resign-to-run laws:



If I'm reading the "Note:" section right, Gallego can announce a run and not violate the resign-to-run laws so long as he doesn't actually file until after January 3, 2020 (or, if he falters before then, drop back into his safe House seat). How he would do that and still get people to donate money to his officially non-existent campaign I don't know, but there you go.

Alternatively, he could just do what McSally did and wait until after the January 3rd deadline.

[Zaybay]

Interesting, so I guess there really is no problem with Gallego running in the primary.

Looks like we have a clash for the ages!

[Webnicz]

https://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly/status/1095722143906549761

Very good haul to start off with.

its actually more than 1.1 mill!!

thats more than klobuchar

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/02/13/mark-kelly-senate-campaign-reports-raising-1-1-million-1-day-since-launch/2865815002/

[Blair]

Surely it will be on Gallego mind that if he doesn't run his only chance would be a run for Governor in 2022- as both these Senate seats could be tied up for years now.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly/status/1095722143906549761

Very good haul to start off with.

its actually more than 1.1 mill!!

thats more than klobuchar

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/02/13/mark-kelly-senate-campaign-reports-raising-1-1-million-1-day-since-launch/2865815002/

You made it sound both extravagant(1.1 Million) and rather small(more than Klobuchar) at the same time.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly/status/1095722143906549761

Very good haul to start off with.

its actually more than 1.1 mill!!

thats more than klobuchar

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/02/13/mark-kelly-senate-campaign-reports-raising-1-1-million-1-day-since-launch/2865815002/

You made it sound both extravagant(1.1 Million) and rather small(more than Klobuchar) at the same time.

To be fair, it's quite amazing to see a Senate candidate raise more on their first day than a major presidential candidate.

[Cold War Liberal]

Regarding Arizona's resign-to-run laws:



If I'm reading the "Note:" section right, Gallego can announce a run and not violate the resign-to-run laws so long as he doesn't actually file until after January 3, 2020 (or, if he falters before then, drop back into his safe House seat). How he would do that and still get people to donate money to his officially non-existent campaign I don't know, but there you go.

Alternatively, he could just do what McSally did and wait until after the January 3rd deadline.

Resign to run doesn’t affect federal office holders.

And you can't run for both the U.S. House and another office simultaneously in any case.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly/status/1095722143906549761

Very good haul to start off with.

its actually more than 1.1 mill!!

thats more than klobuchar

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/02/13/mark-kelly-senate-campaign-reports-raising-1-1-million-1-day-since-launch/2865815002/

You made it sound both extravagant(1.1 Million) and rather small(more than Klobuchar) at the same time.

To be fair, it's quite amazing to see a Senate candidate raise more on their first day than a major presidential candidate.

I personally wouldnt call Klobuchar a major presidential candidate, but I see your point. I should say, however, that the AZ primary isnt a sprint, its a marathon. Kelly needs to keep up consistent, good hauls if he wants to beat Gallego for the spot to face McSally.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised if Gallego doesn't run.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Regarding Arizona's resign-to-run laws:



If I'm reading the "Note:" section right, Gallego can announce a run and not violate the resign-to-run laws so long as he doesn't actually file until after January 3, 2020 (or, if he falters before then, drop back into his safe House seat). How he would do that and still get people to donate money to his officially non-existent campaign I don't know, but there you go.

Alternatively, he could just do what McSally did and wait until after the January 3rd deadline.

Resign to run doesn’t affect federal office holders.

Ah, I see. My mistake.

[Zaybay]

OH Predictive Insights did a poll of the race. They are not known for good results(they thought McSally would win by high single digits, the only firm to think so), but if you want to check it out, here it is.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430046-poll-shows-mcsally-kelly-tied-in-arizona-senate-race

Stats:
Mcsally vs Kelly: 46/44 McSally

McSally vs Gallego: 49/42 McSally

McSally approval: 51/42(net approval +9, 7% dont know)

Kelly Approval: 41/21(net +20, 38% dont know)

Gallego approval: 30/23(net +7, 47% dont know)

[SnowLabrador]

If OH Predictive Insights found McSally up by high single digits in 2018, and now only by 2 points ahead of Mark Kelly, she's probably several points behind in actuality.

[Brittain33]

That's a pretty good result seeing as how McSally has little opportunity to improve how people see her and Kelly is still not well known.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win AZ, with Kelly, just like Dema won in red states in the House in 2018.

[TarHeelDem]

OH Predictive Insights did a poll of the race. They are not known for good results(they thought McSally would win by high single digits, the only firm to think so), but if you want to check it out, here it is.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430046-poll-shows-mcsally-kelly-tied-in-arizona-senate-race

Stats:
Mcsally vs Kelly: 46/44 McSally

McSally vs Gallego: 49/42 McSally

McSally approval: 51/42(net approval +9, 7% dont know)

Kelly Approval: 41/21(net +20, 38% dont know)

Gallego approval: 30/23(net +7, 47% dont know)

Yeah, these are (expectedly) terrible numbers for McSally. She should be doing a lot better with this particular (hack) firm.

[Galeel]

If Gallego doesn't run there's a good chance that he would be VA secretary if the democrats win in 2020.

[here2view]

Is this race more Tilt D or Tilt R at this moment if it's Kelly vs. McSally? It's pretty much a tossup this far out.