2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really cannot imagine McSally surviving in a general against Kelly. He might even help the Democratic nominee carry the state.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It will be fun seeing all the hot takes on atlas when Mark Kelly loses the primary in a landslide while Ruben Gallego takes over 80% of the primary vote.

[pppolitics]

It will be fun seeing all the hot takes on atlas when Mark Kelly loses the primary in a landslide while Ruben Gallego takes over 80% of the primary vote.

Don't bet on it.

[Zaybay]

If theres anything I can say, both Gallego and Kelly are A-tier candidates that can beat McSally. Its really a question of which A-tier candidate will face off against her.

[MAINEiac4434]

I’m not even sure Gallego gets in at this point. Unnecessarily risky for him.

[Zaybay]

I’m not even sure Gallego gets in at this point. Unnecessarily risky for him.

I kinda hope he doesn’t just because I don’t want what happened in the Republican primary in Arizona last year to happen in the Democratic one

I personally feel that the primary stuff is a bit overblown. I mean, even with all that, in a D year, McSally only lost by 3.

Primaries are healthy, and should be encouraged. Its really a risk/reward for Gallego to run. He has a very good chance at winning, but if he loses, he loses his house seat for at least 2 years.

Personally, I would like to see him run, but in the end, its his choice.

[pppolitics]

I’m not even sure Gallego gets in at this point. Unnecessarily risky for him.

I kinda hope he doesn’t just because I don’t want what happened in the Republican primary in Arizona last year to happen in the Democratic one

I personally feel that the primary stuff is a bit overblown. I mean, even with all that, in a D year, McSally only lost by 3.

Primaries are healthy, and should be encouraged. Its really a risk/reward for Gallego to run. He has a very good chance at winning, but if he loses, he loses his house seat for at least 2 years.

Personally, I would like to see him run, but in the end, its his choice.

Gallego has a 50% chance, maybe less, of winning primary.

Assuming that he wins the primary, he has maybe 55%-60% chance of winning the general election.

That or he has a nice safe D+23 district seat that he has >99% chance of winning.

[SnowLabrador]

On second thought, maybe Gallego shouldn't run. It would be too big a risk for him, and for the party, since the main reason McSally lost the first time was because she had a competitive primary, whereas Sinema had only token opposition. Had McSally been unopposed in the R primary, the GOP could have held the seat.

That said, I'm still not too keen on the idea of Kelly being the nominee.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

Wow, another straw man.

No where did I said that a "progressive" cannot win in AZ.

I said that it's a more risky proposition, and Democrats should stick to safer choices.

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

Wow, another straw man.

No where did I said that a "progressive" cannot win in AZ.

I said that it's a more risky proposition, and Democrats should stick to safer choices.

You still dont get it. There is no increased risk from running a Progressive in either AZ or CO, CA or MT, nor for a Blue Dog, or New Dem. Thats my point. There is no point to run Progressives only in Safe seats and to run Moderates in only tossup seats when both can win either.

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

True, though I would call Hobbs and Hoffman standard Democrats, and Sinema a Blue Dog. But after looking at the 2018 and past election results, this is the overall conclusion the data shows.

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

Wow, another straw man.

No where did I said that a "progressive" cannot win in AZ.

I said that it's a more risky proposition, and Democrats should stick to safer choices.

You still dont get it. There is no increased risk from running a Progressive in either AZ or CO, CA or MT, nor for a Blue Dog, or New Dem. Thats my point. There is no point to run Progressives only in Safe seats and to run Moderates in only tossup seats when both can win either.

David Garcia did great! /s

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him!

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

Of course, its not that simple. I mean, Sinema would also have been blown out of the water if she was facing a popular incumbent governor who had a 60% approval rating. Not to mention, Sinema would have little/no money to work with, and would be completely blocked out of the airwaves.

Its not an equal equivalency.

Besides, you have to remember what Garcia's position was before he ran. He ran for the state superintendent, the position Hoffman won last November, In 2014, an R wave year. He lost by 1%, in the R wave year. He clearly wasnt incapable of winning statewide. He was just against a brick wall with no resources to work with. Anyone would be screwed with such a situation.

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

Of course, its not that simple. I mean, Sinema would also have been blown out of the water if she was facing a popular incumbent governor who had a 60% approval rating. Not to mention, Sinema would have little/no money to work with, and would be completely blocked out of the airwaves.

Its not an equal equivalency.

Besides, you have to remember what Garcia's position was before he ran. He was the state superintendent, the position Hoffman won last November. He clearly wasnt incapable of winning statewide. He was just against a brick wall with no resources to work with. Anyone would be screwed with such a situation.

Fact of the matter is that no "progressive" has won.

Candidates such as Sinema, Hobbs, and Hoffman won.

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

[Zaybay]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

Of course, its not that simple. I mean, Sinema would also have been blown out of the water if she was facing a popular incumbent governor who had a 60% approval rating. Not to mention, Sinema would have little/no money to work with, and would be completely blocked out of the airwaves.

Its not an equal equivalency.

Besides, you have to remember what Garcia's position was before he ran. He was the state superintendent, the position Hoffman won last November. He clearly wasnt incapable of winning statewide. He was just against a brick wall with no resources to work with. Anyone would be screwed with such a situation.

Fact of the matter is that no "progressive" has won.

Candidates such as Sinema, Hobbs, and Hoffman won.

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

So, according to you, the winning formula is to run a Blue Dog, a Standard Democrat, and a Pragmatic Progressive to win elections, but you cant run a Pragmatic Progressive or a Progressive if they dont win? Seems like a pretty garbage formula, one that is based off of one instance.

[pppolitics]

JD better put the pressure on Gallego. I've been dreaming of him running for this seat forever, and this will not change it. We need real solid progressives in the senate. Single payer and free college are achievable policies and I want people who will actively fight for those policies and more!

This is Arizona, not Colorado.

Go run "solid progressives" in safe seats.

Still think Grant Woods is the best candidate for this seat because of his moderate FF record?

Another straw man from you.

Maybe you should change you name to Mr. Straw-man

I have never said that Grant Woods was the "best" candidate.

I have always maintained that Mark Kelley was the best candidate.

My biggest concern was that Kelly wouldn't run.

Im not even talking about Mark Kelly. You keep saying that a Progressive cannot win AZ, which is inherently false. We have already had this conversation before when you were saying Grant Woods would be a great candidate because of his moderate record. A Progressive can win both AZ and CO, as can a Blue Dog in both states.

We actually don’t know that since no person running as an openly progressive Democrat has won statewide in AZ in some time. Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman certainly didn’t run as flame throwing progressives. They ran on pragmatism and competence. Not saying a very openly progressive person can’t win a general statewide, just that it hasn’t happened yet

David Garcia ran as a progressive.

He even got Bernie Sanders to campaign for him.

Then he got blown out of the water.

Of course, its not that simple. I mean, Sinema would also have been blown out of the water if she was facing a popular incumbent governor who had a 60% approval rating. Not to mention, Sinema would have little/no money to work with, and would be completely blocked out of the airwaves.

Its not an equal equivalency.

Besides, you have to remember what Garcia's position was before he ran. He was the state superintendent, the position Hoffman won last November. He clearly wasnt incapable of winning statewide. He was just against a brick wall with no resources to work with. Anyone would be screwed with such a situation.

Fact of the matter is that no "progressive" has won.

Candidates such as Sinema, Hobbs, and Hoffman won.

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

So, according to you, the winning formula is to run a Blue Dog, a Standard Democrat, and a Pragmatic Progressive to win elections, but you cant run a Pragmatic Progressive or a Progressive if they dont win? Seems like a pretty garbage formula, one that is based off of one instance.

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

[Zaybay]

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

Well, I havent answered it because you havent given me a winning formula yet. 3 Wins by people on different parts of the ideological spectrum after one election doesnt mean we should follow that pattern for picking candidates. This should be obvious. Just because the last candidate to win GA Senate was an extremely Conservative Democrat doesnt mean we should only run Conservative Democrats in GA. If you say that we shouldnt run women in VT because the office holders are all men, and the one woman who ran in 2018 lost against Phil Scott, it ignores all other factors that point to why the win occurred in the first place.

The voters are there for any Democrat of any stripe to win in AZ, its really not that hard, nor difficult for a Progressive, Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative to win. The state voted for Trump by 3 points, only 3 points, in 2016, and the state has a D Congressional Delegation. The state chambers are almost neck and neck, the Rs literally only hold a majority in the state house by 1 member. You dont need some specific candidate to win this state, its not hard.

We have already had this conversation before, there have been multiple studies on this, I have already addressed the facts in this very thread. If you just like moderates, then say that. You dont have to keep espousing this false idea that voters care about whatever faction the Democrat is part of. (Sinema was literally still painted as a Socialist Firebrand).

[pppolitics]

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

Well, I havent answered it because you havent given me a winning formula yet. 3 Wins by people on different parts of the ideological spectrum after one election doesnt mean we should follow what pattern for picking candidates. This should be obvious. Just because the last candidate to win GA Senate was an extremely Conservative Democrat doesnt mean we should only run Conservative Democrats in GA.

The voters are there for any Democrat of any stripe to win in AZ, its really not that hard, nor difficult for a Progressive, Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative to win. If you say that we shouldnt run women in VT because the office holders are all men, and the one woman who ran in 2018 lost against Phil Scott, it ignores all other factors that point to why the win occurred in the first place.

We have already had this conversation before, there have been multiple studies on this, I have already addressed the facts in this very thread. If you just like moderates, then say that. You dont have to keep espousing this false idea that voters care about whatever faction the Democrat is part of. (Sinema was literally still painted as a Socialist Firebrand).

Democrats hasn't won statewide in Georgia in years.

Democrats have won statewide in Arizona just last year.

None of the candidates that won statewide in AZ were progressives.

[Zaybay]

You still haven't answer my question:

If you already have a winning formula, why change it?

Well, I havent answered it because you havent given me a winning formula yet. 3 Wins by people on different parts of the ideological spectrum after one election doesnt mean we should follow what pattern for picking candidates. This should be obvious. Just because the last candidate to win GA Senate was an extremely Conservative Democrat doesnt mean we should only run Conservative Democrats in GA.

The voters are there for any Democrat of any stripe to win in AZ, its really not that hard, nor difficult for a Progressive, Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative to win. If you say that we shouldnt run women in VT because the office holders are all men, and the one woman who ran in 2018 lost against Phil Scott, it ignores all other factors that point to why the win occurred in the first place.

We have already had this conversation before, there have been multiple studies on this, I have already addressed the facts in this very thread. If you just like moderates, then say that. You dont have to keep espousing this false idea that voters care about whatever faction the Democrat is part of. (Sinema was literally still painted as a Socialist Firebrand).

Democrats hasn't won statewide in Georgia in years.

Democrats have won stateside in Arizona just last year.

None of the candidates that won statewide in AZ were progressives.

.....You completely missed the point.......


Anyway, I should correct, Hoffman won in 2018, and she was a Progressive, though I consider her a Pragmatic Progressive.