IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[VAR]

IceSpear was great, and his KY-GOV prediction (Bevin +5) wasn’t actually that bad. He was wrong about Bevin being inevitable, though.

[cp]

Not to say that discussions about the Michigan constitution and the whereabouts of a former atlas poster aren't relevant to the Iowa Senate race, I wonder if we might talk about polling/turnout/anything else instead?

[roxas11]

Well, the people of Kentucky would have been better off today, had they elected Bevin instead of this incompetent hack Beshear.

Yes, because the track record of Republican governors in handling COVID has been just stellar across the board.

Yes, it has. The economy of the states with Democratic governors has suffered much more than the economy of the states with Republican governors.

Terrible responses to coronavirus cross partisan boundaries. Democratic Governors such as Whitmer, Cuomo, and Newsom haven't done particularly well with their responses, in tandem with Republican Governors such as Kemp, DeSantis, and Noem. And of course, we have other Republican Governors who have responded very well-Scott, Hogan, Baker, and DeWine-to give a few names.

Whitmer's response was fine, and every poll shows that Michigan approves of not only her, but her handling of the virus

The Michigan Supreme Court struck down several of her restrictions as unconstitutional, and Whitmer, like other Governors, sent coronavirus patients to nursing homes in her state, thus exacerbating the spread of the virus. But I digress, and I don't want for this thread to be derailed.

This does nor prove she did a bad job nor does it even reflect how regular people feel about her response to this virus

here is a undisputed fact

Michigan currently has Deaths 7,221 from Covid
compare that to the 15,363 deaths In Flordia

Its realy not hard hard to see why Most voters give her a 59% approval for her hanndling of covid compared to the poor ratings Ron Desantis is getting in florida

[riceowl]

Well, the people of Kentucky would have been better off today, had they elected Bevin instead of this incompetent hack Beshear.

Yes, because the track record of Republican governors in handling COVID has been just stellar across the board.

Yes, it has. The economy of the states with Democratic governors has suffered much more than the economy of the states with Republican governors.

Terrible responses to coronavirus cross partisan boundaries. Democratic Governors such as Whitmer, Cuomo, and Newsom haven't done particularly well with their responses, in tandem with Republican Governors such as Kemp, DeSantis, and Noem. And of course, we have other Republican Governors who have responded very well-Scott, Hogan, Baker, and DeWine-to give a few names.

Whitmer's response was fine, and every poll shows that Michigan approves of not only her, but her handling of the virus

The Michigan Supreme Court struck down several of her restrictions as unconstitutional, and Whitmer, like other Governors, sent coronavirus patients to nursing homes in her state, thus exacerbating the spread of the virus. But I digress, and I don't want for this thread to be derailed.

This does nor prove she did a bad job nor does it even reflect how regular people feel about her response to this virus

here is a undisputed fact

Michigan currently has Deaths 7,221 from Covid
compare that to the 15,363 deaths In Flordia

Its realy not hard hard to see why Most voters give her a 59% approval for her hanndling of covid compared to the poor ratings Ron Desantis is getting in florida

Err, not to go too far off topic, but if those are the numbers then the per capita comparison isn't really super

[Calthrina950]

Well, the people of Kentucky would have been better off today, had they elected Bevin instead of this incompetent hack Beshear.

Yes, because the track record of Republican governors in handling COVID has been just stellar across the board.

Yes, it has. The economy of the states with Democratic governors has suffered much more than the economy of the states with Republican governors.

Terrible responses to coronavirus cross partisan boundaries. Democratic Governors such as Whitmer, Cuomo, and Newsom haven't done particularly well with their responses, in tandem with Republican Governors such as Kemp, DeSantis, and Noem. And of course, we have other Republican Governors who have responded very well-Scott, Hogan, Baker, and DeWine-to give a few names.

Whitmer's response was fine, and every poll shows that Michigan approves of not only her, but her handling of the virus

The Michigan Supreme Court struck down several of her restrictions as unconstitutional, and Whitmer, like other Governors, sent coronavirus patients to nursing homes in her state, thus exacerbating the spread of the virus. But I digress, and I don't want for this thread to be derailed.

Absent any federal plan or guidelines I'm not sure what you expect governors to be able to do their own.

As anyone would know, I've been very critical of Trump's coronavirus response-which solidified my resolve to vote against him (as I have). But there are common sense measures which Governors could have implemented-and securing nursing homes, as was done in Florida (one aspect of DesSantis' response that I do approve of), is one of them. But like I've said, I don't want this thread to be derailed more then it has been. It's insane that my criticism of Whitmer seems to have provoked something here.

[It’s so Joever]

How did Ernst piss away such an easy reelection?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How did Ernst piss away such an easy reelection?

Ernst has always been a weak candidate, but this time she had to run in a non-GOP wave year against someone other than Baroque Balderdash. 

[Roll Roons]

How did Ernst piss away such an easy reelection?

Ernst has always been a weak candidate, but this time she had to run in a non-GOP wave year against someone other than Baroque Balderdash. 

No, I think she was genuinely strong then. Unironically, I’ve heard she’s a very good retail politician so I think her inability to do that is hurting her prospects significantly.

[DINGO Joe]

Ernst reported her fundraising for last Q--7.2 million w 4.3m OH.  So Greenfield entered October with twice the COH (9.0m).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally and Ernst look very similar and so does Greenfield and HEGAR. McSally and Ernst are trailing badly in polls and they both served in the Air Force

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1316556042994626562

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1316556042994626562

Not a good look, but this won't move the needle at all.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As I said with NC-Sen, this sorta stuff really doesn’t matter

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As I said with NC-Sen, this sorta stuff really doesn’t matter

Some of the NCSen polls are showing Cunningham dipping a bit relative to the pro-Biden swing, especially the tracking polls in the field relatively recently prior to the scandal. This isn't going to matter much, but if that were to extend to an investigation of Ernst herself, that could hurt. It damaged Gillum's bid (probably decisively) among others (not even considering Comey's role in the last presidential election).

[wbrocks67]

As I said with NC-Sen, this sorta stuff really doesn’t matter

Ernst may need a hail mary, and stuff like this won't help

[ProgressiveModerate]

As I said with NC-Sen, this sorta stuff really doesn’t matter

Some of the NCSen polls are showing Cunningham dipping a bit relative to the pro-Biden swing, especially the tracking polls in the field relatively recently prior to the scandal. This isn't going to matter much, but if that were to extend to an investigation of Ernst herself, that could hurt. It damaged Gillum's bid (probably decisively) among others (not even considering Comey's role in the last presidential election).

It's really too soon to say what the implications of the whole NC-SEN scandal are tbf I think. We have seen Cunningham's favorability drop, but his poll numbers staying roughly where they were. Ideally, it would be great if he could've gotten a bigger bounce from the wave e had this past week, but he still seems like a clear favorite to win IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

I think in a place like IA, being part of the establishment just isn’t a good look, even if the candidate themselves hasn’t changed. 6 years ago Ernsts was seen as an outsider. Now she’s not. Also, COVID makes it hard for her to do retail politics, which is widely reguarded as her strength.

[wbrocks67]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

I think in a place like IA, being part of the establishment just isn’t a good look, even if the candidate themselves hasn’t changed. 6 years ago Ernsts was seen as an outsider. Now she’s not. Also, COVID makes it hard for her to do retail politics, which is widely reguarded as her strength.

IDK, I just have such a hard time seeing Ernst being a good retail candidate. Every time she speaks, it comes off incredibly disingenuous and fake.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

I think in a place like IA, being part of the establishment just isn’t a good look, even if the candidate themselves hasn’t changed. 6 years ago Ernsts was seen as an outsider. Now she’s not. Also, COVID makes it hard for her to do retail politics, which is widely reguarded as her strength.

IDK, I just have such a hard time seeing Ernst being a good retail candidate. Every time she speaks, it comes off incredibly disingenuous and fake.

Now that she’s been in Washington for 6 years, it does come off as I left pandering or like she’s saying something scripted, but if you watch her ads from like 6 years ago, she doesn’t sound all that different

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

"Some farmer from Iowa" made Bruce Braley a sub-Coakley tier candidate and probably the worst candidate IADEMs could nominate. Ernst would be overperforming generic Republicans by a fair bit (accounting for generic R over/underperformance of Trump) not because she'd win over new voters but because there'd be down-ballot drop-off amongst people too disgusted to back Braley.  He wouldn't quite plumb the Roy Moore depths if he'd given voters six years to forgive that comment, but he'd be even worse than McGrath within the context of his own race.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Ernst has done six 99-county ‘retail’ tours since her first election and has been touring the state in the last weeks as well, what else is she supposed to do?

"Some farmer from Iowa" made Bruce Braley a sub-Coakley tier candidate and probably the worst candidate IADEMs could nominate. Ernst would be overperforming generic Republicans by a fair bit not because she'd win over new voters but because there'd be down-ballot drop-off amongst people too disgusted to back Braley.  He wouldn't quite plumb the Roy Moore depths if he'd given voters six years to forgive that comment, but he'd be even worse than McGrath within the context of his own race.

You (and other posters) are seriously overestimating the number of persuadable Biden/Democratic-leaning voters in the Trump era. 95% of Biden voters wouldn’t consider voting for any Republican for Senate no matter what, and there’s no scenario in which any Republican incumbent in any competitive Senate race outperforms generic R by a fair bit this year. This isn’t supposed to be a polemic comment or anything, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen as much intense hatred of anything Republican/energy on the Democratic side as this year.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"Some farmer from Iowa" made Bruce Braley a sub-Coakley tier candidate and probably the worst candidate IADEMs could nominate. Ernst would be overperforming generic Republicans by a fair bit not because she'd win over new voters but because there'd be down-ballot drop-off amongst people too disgusted to back Braley.  He wouldn't quite plumb the Roy Moore depths if he'd given voters six years to forgive that comment, but he'd be even worse than McGrath within the context of his own race.

You (and other posters) are seriously overestimating the number of persuadable Biden/Democratic-leaning voters in the Trump era. 95% of Biden voters wouldn’t consider voting for any Republican for Senate no matter what, and there’s no scenario in which any Republican incumbent in any competitive Senate race outperforms generic R by a fair bit this year. This isn’t supposed to be a polemic comment or anything, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen as much intense hatred of anything Republican/energy on the Democratic side as this year.

I'm not saying she'd win over lots of Democratic-leaning voters (although I still wager there'd be a fair few), just that she'd win over every single Republican and then benefit from Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm not saying she'd win over lots of Democratic-leaning voters (although I still wager there'd be a fair few), just that she'd win over every single Republican and then benefit from Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.

Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.... with Senate control at stake? Not happening. It didn’t happen in NJ with Menendez, it wouldn’t happen with a candidate far less odious than him (Braley might be a clumsy campaigner, but he’s not even as repugnant as Trump).

Ernst's only hope is consolidating the Trump vote/enough of the undecideds, she’s finished if Biden wins the state.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm not saying she'd win over lots of Democratic-leaning voters (although I still wager there'd be a fair few), just that she'd win over every single Republican and then benefit from Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.

Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.... with Senate control at stake? Not happening. It didn’t happen in NJ with Menendez, it wouldn’t happen with a candidate far less odious than him (Braley might be a clumsy campaigner, but he’s not even as repugnant as Trump).

Ernst's only hope is consolidating the Trump vote/enough of the undecideds, she’s finished if Biden wins the state.

It did happen with Menendez: he got about 150,000 fewer votes than the House Democratic candidates statewide while Hugin over performed House Republicans by slightly more than that. I'd also wager Menendez's odiousness probably turned out low-propensity House Republican voters at a higher rate than House races turned out low-propensity Senate Republican voters.

How do you square this your assessment of John James' chances?

[lfromnj]

I'm not saying she'd win over lots of Democratic-leaning voters (although I still wager there'd be a fair few), just that she'd win over every single Republican and then benefit from Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.

Democrats leaving their Senate ballots blank/voting third party.... with Senate control at stake? Not happening. It didn’t happen in NJ with Menendez, it wouldn’t happen with a candidate far less odious than him (Braley might be a clumsy campaigner, but he’s not even as repugnant as Trump).

Ernst's only hope is consolidating the Trump vote/enough of the undecideds, she’s finished if Biden wins the state.

It did happen with Menendez: he got about 150,000 fewer votes than the House Democratic candidates statewide while Hugin over performed House Republicans by slightly more than that. I'd also wager Menendez's odiousness probably turned out low-propensity House Republican voters at a higher rate than House races turned out low-propensity Senate Republican voters.

How do you square this your assessment of John James' chances?

BLM woke suburbans feel less guilty for voting for a black Republican.