IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Non Swing Voter]

Ernst is voting for Barrett, likewise with Collins, she said the voting must wait til after election, but we know from Kavanaugh that she would vote to confirm Justice Barrett. Ernst is done

SCOTUS destroyed Collins because Maine is fairly liberal.  I would have thought it would help Ernst if anything though?  Maybe Iowans don't like the absurd hypocrisy though?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is voting for Barrett, likewise with Collins, she said the voting must wait til after election, but we know from Kavanaugh that she would vote to confirm Justice Barrett. Ernst is done

SCOTUS destroyed Collins because Maine is fairly liberal.  I would have thought it would help Ernst if anything though?  Maybe Iowans don't like the absurd hypocrisy though?

All of our Congressional districts support Ginsburg and they are fairly liberal

[Lognog]

Wow, Joni Ernst listened to my #retailpolitics advice

https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1310737427733123074

Are you criticizing Senator Ernst?

Funny, did you go to all of Iowa's 99 counties?

yeah, that's what I thought.

[LimoLiberal]

Not a good look for Greenfield. (Ignore the NRSC flack tweet, the video is objectively bad)

https://twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1312560980141002752

[ON Progressive]

what

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1313095034556895232

[wbrocks67]

what

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1313095034556895232

LMAO Ernst is grasping at straws. Also that video is not the own the NRSCC thinks it is. Ernst comes off like a robot, emotionless typical DC political with no soul.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lol, why should Greenfield address stuff from an NC candidate who not even did something unlawful. Has Ernst condemned Mr. Trump's corruption? Ernst is a joke and always has been.

[Ferguson97]

what

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1313095034556895232

This makes me feel significantly more confident about our chances to win a Senate majority of this is what the GOP is latching on to.

[wbrocks67]

The problem for Ernst is that she comes off so damn disingenuous every time she opens her mouth.

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

[wbrocks67]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

it IS a pure tossup though. and the fundamentals are not good for Trump/Rs right now, especially in a state like IA when his support is collapsing in the midwest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Ernst is gonna lose due to fact our Congressional districts are Lean D, underestimating Greenfield is to Rs detriment. IA isn't safe R, it was a D state before 2014, it had Tom Harkins and Chet Culver

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1314143887552917505

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1314143887552917505

That's pretty insane. She's still not going to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA or NC will be the 50th seat for the D's, I don't see D's getting over 52 seats now, since Daines is winning. The D's will win 1 GA seat if Trump loses

[libertpaulian]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Yeah, and Senator Donnelly won because he was a strong, popular incumbent unlike McCaskill.

[LabourJersey]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Not to mention the fact that Missouri is a more Republican state than Iowa.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

- McCaskill trailed in most polls.

- McCaskill had been consistently unpopular for years. There was an absolutely vicious Republican smear campaign against her that literally began back in 2016.

- Hawley had a Kavanaugh bump right at the end. Missourians are totally unable to resist culture war red meat.

[Ancestral Republican]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

- McCaskill trailed in most polls.

- McCaskill had been consistently unpopular for years. There was an absolutely vicious Republican smear campaign against her that literally began back in 2016.

- Hawley had a Kavanaugh bump right at the end. Missourians are totally unable to resist culture war red meat.

Don't forget the Migrant Caravan bs.

[Xing]

Reduxes are overdone, but I think a better parallel if Ernst wins would be PA-SEN 2016 (incumbent initially seen as nearly safe because of early polls and a Weak Opponent™, then polls start to show the challenger leading, and people realize that the incumbent isn't that "strong" and start to consider the challenger favored. The incumbent then overperforms polls by just enough to win.)

If she loses (which I'm still not predicting, but it is definitely plausible if the environment is as good for Democrats as it seems), I'd say the right parallel would be CO-SEN 2014 (incumbent initially seen as safe because of the trends in the state, then the race ends up becoming much more competitive than expected, and polls show the incumbent losing. People assume that polls will underestimate the incumbent's party as they have in the past, but they end up being close to accurate in this particular race, and the incumbent narrowly loses.)

I've never been bullish on Greenfield's chances (I'd still give a very slight edge to Ernst), as those on this forum know, but I don't think calling this race a Toss-Up in a D+8-10 environment is unreasonable at all. The trend in Iowa isn't good for Democrats, and a win here would probably be the last time for a while Democrats would win a Senate race here, but Iowa isn't as Republican as Missouri yet, and there are cases of a party winning races in states where the trend is unfavorable for their party due to a favorable national environment.

[VAR]

Joni Ernst tours the state by motorcycle in the final days of 'tough, tough, tough' re-election fight.

"It's not what I feel on the ground," she said. "It's not what I feel when I'm traveling through all 99 counties of Iowa. I am out there, every single week, traveling to a different county and meeting with Iowans."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't 2016 it's 2020, and Ernst is in Tom Harkins seat, Greenfield will win😀😀😀

Dems in Congressional races will win

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This isn't 2016 it's 2020, and Ernst is in Tom Harkins seat, Greenfield will win😀😀😀

Dems in Congressional races will win

What does Tom Harkin have to do with 2020?

[KaiserDave]

Joni Ernst tours the state by motorcycle in the final days of 'tough, tough, tough' re-election fight.

"It's not what I feel on the ground," she said. "It's not what I feel when I'm traveling through all 99 counties of Iowa. I am out there, every single week, traveling to a different county and meeting with Iowans."

I detect #populism