IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[S019]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

2018 suggested a pretty solid swing back to Ds, even though Reynolds still won the governors race, but those tend to be less partisan anyways. However, 2018 did re-affirm the IA polling in general tends to overestimate Ds a bit, as it did in 2016, 2012, and even 2008, when polls showed Obama up by close to 20% in the state sometimes. It's like the Republican version of NV sort of; a state where polling makes it fools gold, and is generally trending towards one party, with occasional swings back to the other side.

Iowa still voted well right of the nation if you adjust for IA-04 being an anomaly, (Gov race results are a good way to do this), and it looks to be 10+ pts right of the nation again this year, that's not a swing state, that's like calling OR winnable for Republicans outside of a D wave election, IA is firmly a Likely R state, and if Greenfield wins, it will be solely because of the Democratic tsunami environment.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

2018 suggested a pretty solid swing back to Ds, even though Reynolds still won the governors race, but those tend to be less partisan anyways. However, 2018 did re-affirm the IA polling in general tends to overestimate Ds a bit, as it did in 2016, 2012, and even 2008, when polls showed Obama up by close to 20% in the state sometimes. It's like the Republican version of NV sort of; a state where polling makes it fools gold, and is generally trending towards one party, with occasional swings back to the other side.

Iowa still voted well right of the nation if you adjust for IA-04 being an anomaly, (Gov race results are a good way to do this), and it looks to be 10+ pts right of the nation again this year, that's not a swing state, that's like calling OR winnable for Republicans outside of a D wave election, IA is firmly a Likely R state, and if Greenfield wins, it will be solely because of the Democratic tsunami environment.

Fair enough. The swing states skew right since the current national environment seems very good for Ds, but in an even year, states like TX, GA, OH, IA prolly wouldn't be discussed all that much.

[DaleCooper]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Given that Ernst was already a bit of an underdog, this fail seems like a pretty terrible impression to leave voters with. In midwestern states like Iowa, failure to know basic struggles your constituents face is the kind of stuff that loses you elections.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

[The Legend]

The general midwestern shift makes me hopeful here.

[Alben Barkley]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

Another (and probably more accurate) way of looking at it is that it’s been a swing state all this time. It just swings bigger than most states.

[S019]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

Another (and probably more accurate) way of looking at it is that it’s been a swing state all this time. It just swings bigger than most states.

I can't seriously call a state that's poised to vote 10-ish pts right of the nation three consecutive election cycles as a swing state

[Alben Barkley]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

Even if she wins narrowly, that wouldn’t prove that. In fact I don’t see any scenario she wins in which it isn’t extremely narrow so...

Honestly, at this point I am now hoping Biden and Greenfield both win more than anything because it will shatter your whole “Muh Trends!” ideology. I would actually accept a complete reversion across the board to 2012 levels, even if that also means losing ground in the Sun Belt, solely so I can laugh at those who were SO DAMN SURE that states like Iowa were gone for good for Democrats because muh trends and muh demographics! But what I actually think will happen is a complete or near-complete reversal of the perceived, supposed “trends” towards the GOP in the rust belt and among the WWC/rurals from 2016 while at the same time, sun belt/suburban trends towards the Democrats continue and accelerate. This will be the sweetest thing of all: Utter collapse for the GOP everywhere. All their gains erased, all their ground lost. I am chomping at the bit for this to happen and think that there is a VERY real chance it will. Certainly far greater chance than that Trump wins Iowa by 10 again or something.

[Alben Barkley]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

Another (and probably more accurate) way of looking at it is that it’s been a swing state all this time. It just swings bigger than most states.

I can't seriously call a state that's poised to vote 10-ish pts right of the nation three consecutive election cycles as a swing state

Iowa voted to the LEFT of the nation in 2012!

Moreover, it’s a small state that is, yes, very “elastic.” There are more persuadable voters there than in the vast majority of other states. A small number (in absolute terms) of these voters shifting from election to election can cause large swings in percentage. It really is not that hard to figure out.

[prag_prog]

Been a while since we had a Selzer poll...hope we can get one soon. Last 2 Selzer polls had Greenfield with a narrow lead and considering how the political environment has only gotten better for Dems since then, I expect Greenfield to still maintain that lead. This will be the tipping point of senate, hope Greenfield can pull this off

[Xing]

Welp, that settles it. No amount of retail-politicking can make up for Soybeangate.

[S019]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

Another (and probably more accurate) way of looking at it is that it’s been a swing state all this time. It just swings bigger than most states.

I can't seriously call a state that's poised to vote 10-ish pts right of the nation three consecutive election cycles as a swing state

Iowa voted to the LEFT of the nation in 2012!

Moreover, it’s a small state that is, yes, very “elastic.” There are more persuadable voters there than in the vast majority of other states. A small number (in absolute terms) of these voters shifting from election to election can cause large swings in percentage. It really is not that hard to figure out.

This is such a disingenuous point, I might as well say VA is a tossup, based on 2012 results.

[mijan]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

2018 suggested a pretty solid swing back to Ds, even though Reynolds still won the governors race, but those tend to be less partisan anyways. However, 2018 did re-affirm the IA polling in general tends to overestimate Ds a bit, as it did in 2016, 2012, and even 2008, when polls showed Obama up by close to 20% in the state sometimes. It's like the Republican version of NV sort of; a state where polling makes it fools gold, and is generally trending towards one party, with occasional swings back to the other side.

IA polling in 2012 underestimated Obama.  Rcp average was 2.3 but Obama win by 5.8

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

2018 suggested a pretty solid swing back to Ds, even though Reynolds still won the governors race, but those tend to be less partisan anyways. However, 2018 did re-affirm the IA polling in general tends to overestimate Ds a bit, as it did in 2016, 2012, and even 2008, when polls showed Obama up by close to 20% in the state sometimes. It's like the Republican version of NV sort of; a state where polling makes it fools gold, and is generally trending towards one party, with occasional swings back to the other side.

IA polling in 2012 underestimated Obama.  Rcp average was 2.3 but Obama win by 5.8

Oh yeah forgot about that sorry

[VAR]

I doubt IA polling ends up underestimating Democrats in the current realignment.

[mijan]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

[ProgressiveModerate]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

Was still 3% closer than polls indicated

[mijan]

I doubt IA polling ends up underestimating Democrats in the current realignment.

It can happen if pollstars fail to account massive dem early voting turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

Was still 3% closer than polls indicated

NV pollsters have difficulty taking into account Spanish speakers. Which makes polling in NV structurally R-friendly.

[mijan]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

Was still 3% closer than polls indicated

Greenfield is leading 3-4 now, so you can still hope for a narrow dem victory.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

Was still 3% closer than polls indicated

Greenfield is leading 3-4 now, so you can still hope for a narrow dem victory.

That's what I'm hoping for, but only time will tell.

[SnowLabrador]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

[wbrocks67]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

Still off by a decent amount https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html