IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Source: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/07/joni-ernst-senate-iowa-congress-campaign-2020-election-senator-candidate-trump-republican-senator/2238987002/

Gun to my head, she wins by 5 points or so.

[Zaybay]

Not surprised

[IceSpear]

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

[Politician]

Titanium R->Titanium R

[lfromnj]

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

OR Sinemas tutu or Iraq war stances

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Not a big fan of her, but I don’t see her losing unless 2020 turns into a massive Democratic tsunami.

https://iowastartingline.com/2016/08/30/can-democrats-ever-hope-to-defeat-joni-ernst/

She’s really good at retail politics.

[Calthrina950]

I think Ernst is strongly favored in 2020, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won by double digits, especially if Trump wins Iowa again, which he most definitely will if he's winning reelection.

[DrScholl]

The congressional delegation went from 3-1 Republican to 3-1 Democratic in one cycle. That doesn't really suggest that Ernst is safe.

[IceSpear]

The congressional delegation went from 3-1 Republican to 3-1 Democratic in one cycle. That doesn't really suggest that Ernst is safe.

Yeah, Ernst certainly isn't safe if 2020 is a Democratic wave year, but I don't think anyone ever denied that.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The congressional delegation went from 3-1 Republican to 3-1 Democratic in one cycle. That doesn't really suggest that Ernst is safe.

Important to note that Iowa's districts aren't incredibly tilted to either side, so Iowa is more susceptible to small swings changing who has the balance of power in the House delegation.

[Xing]

She's definitely favored, but I don't think it would take that massive of a Democratic wave for her to lose to a good candidate (i.e. not Vilsack.)

[Badger]

She's definitely favored, but I don't think it would take that massive of a Democratic wave for her to lose to a good candidate (i.e. not Vilsack.)

[SnowLabrador]

I think she'll win, but maybe not by quite as much as last time. But yeah, she's skilled at Iowa retail politics and will not be easy to dislodge at all.

[Coldstream]

I think it’ll be close and she’s certainly favoured at this moment. However gun to head, she loses narrowly (ie within 4 digits) but out performs Trump.

[Don Vito Corleone]

She's definitely favored, but I don't think it would take that massive of a Democratic wave for her to lose to a good candidate (i.e. not Vilsack.)

[Skye]

Lean R.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Vilsack is nominated he will lose by 10-15 points. That I can see from far away.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernest and Collins and Gardner is part of the 272-279 crescent, like I said before, she isnt the unbeatable titan or impregnable Grassley, she narrowly beat Braley.

Bullock, Scholten can very well pull it off in Mnt and IA. Rs are too confident about her winning

[Young Conservative]

Likely R. Trump will probably will Iowa in his reelection and she'll be ahead.

[lfromnj]

Likely r but closer to lean than safe.
Nominate a young populist dem who can like jd scholten but with hair and its lean but nominate an old lobbyist like vilsack and it's safe

[Xing]

Likely r but closer to lean than safe.
Nominate a young populist dem who can like jd scholten but with hair and its lean but nominate an old lobbyist like vilsack and it's safe

Yes, voters care so deeply about Male Pattern Baldness, which is why Rick Scott lost three statewide elections and Trump lost to Clinton in a landslide. If only Scholten had Tester's haircut, he would've actually beaten King despite it being a Trump +27 district.

[lfromnj]

Likely r but closer to lean than safe.
Nominate a young populist dem who can like jd scholten but with hair and its lean but nominate an old lobbyist like vilsack and it's safe

Yes, voters care so deeply about Male Pattern Baldness, which is why Rick Scott lost three statewide elections and Trump lost to Clinton in a landslide. If only Scholten had Tester's haircut, he would've actually beaten King despite it being a Trump +27 district.

Hair only matters in populists states like iowa or montana or wisconsin. In corporate florida hair causes you to lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course its Likely R, there's no candidate. She isnt unbeatable. SMC is the only female R unbeatable this election cycle of 2020

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1075735445152153601

hes running

[Pericles]

Likely R Safe R