IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[oraclebones]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

bc Ernst has been vastly overestimated. She's not a good candidate, and this year is making that blatantly clear

Yeah, I really don't get why so many people ever thought Ernst was invulnerable to losing. I was living in Iowa in 2014 when she was first elected, and I think everyone, even people who supported her, understood there was nothing special about her. She just had the right biography (farmer, military, just enough legislative experience) to be a plausible candidate. Luckily for her, she ran in a GOP wave election and her Dem opponent was a terrible candidate (e.g., making fun of Grassley for being "a farmer who never went to law school").

She clearly has some incumbency advantage now, but she would always have been vulnerable if put in a challenging electoral environment for the GOP (like now).

[S019]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

If you adjust IA-04 to the Governor's race result, Republicans would have narrowly won the GCB in Iowa and this is without also adjusting Loebsack's overperformance.

It is roughly five points D with Scholten v King, so unless you expect an overperformance like that in IA-04 and/or IA-02 don't get your hopes up.

[Lognog]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

If you adjust IA-04 to the Governor's race result, Republicans would have narrowly won the GCB in Iowa and this is without also adjusting Loebsack's overperformance.

It is roughly five points D with Scholten v King, so unless you expect an overperformance like that in IA-04 and/or IA-02 don't get your hopes up.

I don't know why you are using two races that don't have much to do with one another to make bogus points.

yeah renolds did well, bc they liked the previous admin. but many didn't like king and wanted a dem house. IA isn't titanium R and 2018 wasn't a fluke

[DrScholl]

Going from a 3-1 Republican delegation to a 3-1 Democratic one was pretty significant for a state that is supposedly trending heavily to the right. If anything Iowa is still a swing state and is not as reliably Republican as it was portrayed to be after Trump won it.

[S019]

Going from a 3-1 Republican delegation to a 3-1 Democratic one was pretty significant for a state that is supposedly trending heavily to the right. If anything Iowa is still a swing state and is not as reliably Republican as it was portrayed to be after Trump won it.

Or you know, it could be the case that 1 and 3 are left of the state and this would flip before the state AL

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

If you adjust IA-04 to the Governor's race result, Republicans would have narrowly won the GCB in Iowa and this is without also adjusting Loebsack's overperformance.

It is roughly five points D with Scholten v King, so unless you expect an overperformance like that in IA-04 and/or IA-02 don't get your hopes up.

I don't know why you are using two races that don't have much to do with one another to make bogus points.

yeah renolds did well, bc they liked the previous admin. but many didn't like king and wanted a dem house. IA isn't titanium R and 2018 wasn't a fluke

Because Scolten's overperformance means using IA House 2018 GCB data isn't a good metric to use, as it's heavily skewed towards Democrats

[Lognog]

Going from a 3-1 Republican delegation to a 3-1 Democratic one was pretty significant for a state that is supposedly trending heavily to the right. If anything Iowa is still a swing state and is not as reliably Republican as it was portrayed to be after Trump won it.

Or you know, it could be the case that 1 and 3 are left of the state and this would flip before the state AL

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

If you adjust IA-04 to the Governor's race result, Republicans would have narrowly won the GCB in Iowa and this is without also adjusting Loebsack's overperformance.

It is roughly five points D with Scholten v King, so unless you expect an overperformance like that in IA-04 and/or IA-02 don't get your hopes up.

I don't know why you are using two races that don't have much to do with one another to make bogus points.

yeah renolds did well, bc they liked the previous admin. but many didn't like king and wanted a dem house. IA isn't titanium R and 2018 wasn't a fluke

Because Scolten's overperformance means using IA House 2018 GCB data isn't a good metric to use, as it's heavily skewed towards Democrats

fine, even then. It would be smarter to use other congressional data, not governors races

look at the 2014 house elections. R+6 night, GCP there was R+7. again, not a radically right state, just republican leaning

[DrScholl]

[quote author=Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia link=topic=308691.msg7660861#msg7660861 date=1602974750 uid=23080
Or you know, it could be the case that 1 and 3 are left of the state and this would flip before the state AL
[/quote]

But if there was a huge rightward trend in the state neither of those districts would have flipped. Again, Iowa is still a swing state because that is how it behaved in 2018.

[JerryArkansas]

As a bit of proof that Soybean-gate seems to have legs, the Iowa Farm Buera now says it can't urge its members to vote for Ernst. 

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure if this is an unpopular opinion here, but I think we can say objectively here at this point that Theresa Greenfield has turned out to be a very good candidate for Iowa.

[Blair]

I'm not sure if this is an unpopular opinion here, but I think we can say objectively here at this point that Theresa Greenfield has turned out to be a very good candidate for Iowa.

I think the lesson of this cycle & 2018 is that candidates who haven't held office before are actually a lot harder to attack & define than someone whose been in congress or state politics for decades.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure if this is an unpopular opinion here, but I think we can say objectively here at this point that Theresa Greenfield has turned out to be a very good candidate for Iowa.

I think the lesson of this cycle & 2018 is that candidates who haven't held office before are actually a lot harder to attack & define than someone whose been in congress or state politics for decades.

+ it appears that Dems running "everyday people" like Theresa, Cunningham, etc., was a smart move. They definitely appeal to the electorate more, and aside from Cunningham's "scandal", they seem to fit the vibe of their states very well. Greenfield's corn answer just proved to me that in terms if Iowa itself, she seems to know what she's doing.

[Blair]

Not sure if this matters at all- but Des Moines Register endorses Greenfield.

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/endorsement/2020/10/17/republicans-do-not-deserve-seats-iowa-legislature-congress-editorial/3641153001/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Iowa Farm Bureau rescinds its endorsement of Ernst.

https://twitter.com/JulieGammack/status/1317898034378903552

[Gass3268]

Iowa Farm Bureau rescinds its endorsement of Ernst.

https://twitter.com/JulieGammack/status/1317898034378903552

Folks are trying to get confirmation, it might just be one county (Audubon), but the Iowa Farm Bureau did amplify it through their newsletter.

[WD]

It’s fake:

https://mobile.twitter.com/IowaFarmBureau/status/1317923712402968579

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

New Monmouth Poll: Greenfield 49, Ernst 47

Is it tightening?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

New Monmouth Poll: Greenfield 49, Ernst 47

Is it tightening?

The registered voters model is flat, the high turnout model suggests tightening of 1 point and the low turnout model suggests widening of 5 points. I guess that if Democrats vote early at higher rate, high turnout models will trend Republican and low turnout models will trend Democratic because respondents who've already voted will be incorporated in both.

Not a great poll for Greenfield given that Biden did better across all 3 measures, but not terrible, either - especially given that some consolidation of Republican undecided voters behind Ernst was expected in the later stages of the campaign. Greenfield is still running even or ahead of Biden in all 3 models; for Ernst, the opposite is true (except for the high turnout model, where she's tied with Trump).

[wbrocks67]

New Monmouth Poll: Greenfield 49, Ernst 47

Is it tightening?

No

[Xing]

The race has been surprisingly stable according to polling (the average has been Greenfield +3 or so for a couple of months.) The question is how accurate polling is in IA this cycle.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Ernst up 1 in NYT poll. Uh oh.

[SnowLabrador]

This is looking like IA-GOV 2018 all over again. Tilt R.

[GALeftist]

Y'all, it's just one poll, and Siena polls have been janky across the board this cycle. Keeping this at tilt D.

[MT Treasurer]

The race has been surprisingly stable according to polling (the average has been Greenfield +3 or so for a couple of months.) The question is how accurate polling is in IA this cycle.

Well, we had one poll today showing a tie and another one showing Ernst +1. I guess it just boils down to the question of whether you think IA is really a far more likely flip than all of KS, TX, MT, GA-R, and so on, or not. I happen to think the answer to that is no mostly due to fundamentals/trends (even if it amounts to memeing according to some people), but we’ll see what happens. If this really turns out to be seat 49/50/51 for Democrats and IA votes well to the left of most of the other competitive/"Lean" to "Likely" R races, I’ll gladly admit that I was completely wrong and that Iowa really is more of a true swing state than I thought.

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

[Xing]

The race has been surprisingly stable according to polling (the average has been Greenfield +3 or so for a couple of months.) The question is how accurate polling is in IA this cycle.

Well, we had one poll today showing a tie and another one showing Ernst +1. I guess it just boils down to the question of whether you think IA is really a far more likely flip than all of KS, TX, MT, GA-R, and so on, or not. I happen to think the answer to that is no mostly due to fundamentals/trends (even if it amounts to memeing according to some people), but we’ll see what happens. If this really turns out to be seat 49/50/51 for Democrats and IA votes well to the left of most of the other competitive/Lean to Likely R races, I’ll gladly admit that I was completely wrong and that Iowa really is more of a true swing state than I thought.

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

I don't think it's a far more likely flip than KS or TX, but I do think it's somewhat more likely. GA-R and MT probably flip before IA, so I think it's probably seat 52 or 53. I don't think IA is a Toss-Up state in general, since we can't ignore that the national environment is (or at least seems to be) very good for Democrats. I think Ernst is very slightly favored (thanks to IA becoming increasing Republican-leaning compared to the rest of the country), but the idea that she would massively overperform Trump or become "the next Grassley" was always far-fetched, in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but if Biden wins by 8 or more nationally, I doubt Ernst wins by more than a narrow margin, and she could lose.

I agree that this thread will be a mess regardless of the result. Then again, so will the threads for MT-SEN, NC-SEN, and probably several more.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't think it's a far more likely flip than KS or TX, but I do think it's somewhat more likely. GA-R and MT probably flip before IA, so I think it's probably seat 52 or 53. I don't think IA is a Toss-Up state in general, since we can't ignore that the national environment is (or at least seems to be) very good for Democrats. I think Ernst is very slightly favored (thanks to IA becoming increasing Republican-leaning compared to the rest of the country), but the idea that she would massively overperform Trump or become "the next Grassley" was always far-fetched, in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but if Biden wins by 8 or more nationally, I doubt Ernst wins by more than a narrow margin, and she could lose.

I agree that this thread will be a mess regardless of the result. Then again, so will the threads for MT-SEN, NC-SEN, and probably several more.

I agree with this, actually. I’d say it’s seat 52 (after MT) or 53 (after MT/GA-R), I just don’t see seats 54-57 (KS, TX, SC) not being very close if IA actually flips. Guess I should have put it that way. I get that the idea of Ernst outperforming Trump by 5+ points was foolish (although several people who mock others for this prediction said the same about Peters in MI, so pot and kettle or something...), but I also don’t think she’ll significantly underperform him (maybe 1-2 points or so, but not more than that).

I will definitely move IA-SEN 2022 from Likely to Tilt/Lean R if Ernst loses while other Republicans in competitive races survive. If it was solely due to the environment, she wouldn’t be in a worse position than someone like Cornyn (and I’m still not entirely convinced that she is, even if it’s hard to ignore some of the polling).