IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Another week, another Joni Ernst blunder

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1302289508906479619

She'll still win. Iowa has fully embraced fascism at this point.

As we learnt when Steve King resoundingly won his primary. /s

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

Feenstra's no less fascist than King; in fact, he admitted it himself. The only argument he made was that King was no longer effective due to having been stripped of his committee assignments.

I'll believe Ernst losing when Greenfield is sworn in on January 3.

[Lognog]

Another week, another Joni Ernst blunder

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1302289508906479619

She'll still win. Iowa has fully embraced fascism at this point.

I think 2018 would disagree

[MT Treasurer]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

[S019]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

Agreed, Ernst has made a lot of blunders on the campaign trail, but Trump is likelier to perform much better here than in other Senate battlegrounds such as CO, AZ, NC, GA, and ME. Unlike MT, ME, or KS, this race shouldn't have significant ticket splitting, so Ernst's fate is closely tied to Trump, who should still carry Iowa. But I think the important note here is that Ernst being in danger shows how bad the Republican prospects for holding the Senate really are.

[Landslide Lyndon]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

The story might seem random on a national level but it actually made waves locally, which is the reason why Ernst was forced to take back her wild accusations.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

I don't think it's particularly likely, but recent polling suggests Democrats have a slight advantage in this race and are almost definitely overperforming presidential numbers. Although I suspect polling slightly underestimates IA Republicans across the board, Ernst has been running a terrible campaign in a small state where retail politics seem to matter and while I don't expect that to dramatically change this race, it might be part of a better explanation for her underperformance here than sustained polling error.

The Senate seats I'd expect to fall before this one are AZ, CO, ME and NC (I've grown more pessimistic about GA due to the runoffs and the ongoing clown car in the Loeffler race). Assuming AL goes non-Atlas red, all that's needed to make IASEN a tipping point is a strong Collins overperformance based on personal appeal (unlikely but still possibly given the large number of undecided voters polls tend to show in that race) or a general Democratic overperformance in the midwest relative to NC.

I think either of those scenarios happening in addition to me being correct about MT, GA, GA-S, TX, AK and KS being slightly or somewhat less winnable than IA is a tall order, but it's not implausible and seems much more realistic than it did to me a few months ago.

[wbrocks67]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

The story might seem random on a national level but it actually made waves locally, which is the reason why Ernst was forced to take back her wild accusations.

I really love when people feel the need to tell other people what stories aren't and are gong to matter. Pretty sure every blunder that I've posted in here has made waves locally in Iowa - especially this one, like you said, b/c she had to take it back b/c it made waves locally.

It would not surprise me if Ernst underperformed Trump.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope hat the people of Iowa are not stupid enough to reelect this joke of a senator. But I won't believe we are ahead here until I get a poll showing Greenfield ahead by 6-7 due to GOP overperformances in Iowa in 14, 16, and 18

[Mr. Smith]

Another week, another Joni Ernst blunder

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1302289508906479619

She'll still win. Iowa has fully embraced fascism at this point.

Ah yes, I'm quite a fan of Governor Hubbell too.

I think 2018 would disagree

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another week, another Joni Ernst blunder

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1302289508906479619

She'll still win. Iowa has fully embraced fascism at this point.

I think 2018 would disagree

Ah yes, I'm quite a fan of Governor Hubbell too.

The PV for the House elections was Democratic in part because of voters in red CD-04, including many who supported Reynolds over Hubbell. They split their tickets specifically to stop the white nationalist in their Congressional race.

[Xing]

It’s pretty evident that Ernst is a moron, but I don’t see Greenfield winning over that many Trump voters, especially since Trump isn’t exactly a polished speaker or genius himself. I’d say she only has a shot if Trump is winning IA by 2 or less.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s pretty evident that Ernst is a moron, but I don’t see Greenfield winning over that many Trump voters, especially since Trump isn’t exactly a polished speaker or genius himself. I’d say she only has a shot if Trump is winning IA by 2 or less.

Dems have 3 Congressional districts that they are defending, iA 1, and 3 are Safe D and IA 2 and 4 are safe R, Greenfield have lead Ernst in every poll recently, that's why Greenfield will win, based on our Congressional candidates in IA

[LimoLiberal]

I never bought into the Greenfield hype here. This will be called a "tossup" until Election Day but it's really closer to Likely R in terms of who I expect to win. Ernst by 4-5.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I was a skeptic of both Greenfield's candidacy and IA Democrats' chances in this race for most of this, but "Likely R" doesn't seem appropriate. There has not been especially frequent polling but most of it has been in Greenfield's favour and even the latest Selzer poll (admittedly as far back as June, but there doesn't appear to have been a huge shift in IA since then) shows Greenfield ahead of Biden in terms of margin and topline numbers.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1303781370049826817?s=19

[wbrocks67]

See, this is what Greenfield has going for her. She's clearly a lot more personable and relatable than Joni "Karen" Ernst

https://twitter.com/GreenfieldIowa/status/1310365353709629440

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is done

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, Ernst has been losing in every poll

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That David moderator is awful, I wanted to punch him in the face so badly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs still believe that Ernst can't lose and she is losing. IA is once again a swing state, Biden helped Obama win it in 2008/12, sorry Indy Rep

[Chips]

I think Ernst will win by a few points but it is possible for Greenfield to win.

[wbrocks67]

That moderator was condescending to both of them.

[Non Swing Voter]

WTF poll just released?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html

can anyone explain how this can be close to reality?

[Storr]

WTF poll just released?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html

can anyone explain how this can be close to reality?

I mean, I'd love to see Ernst get mini-Blanched by 12 points, but yeah...this poll isn't close to reality at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is voting for Barrett, likewise with Collins, she said the voting must wait til after election, but we know from Kavanaugh that she would vote to confirm Justice Barrett. Ernst is done