TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Which one of the Castro twins run for United States Senator & get spanked by Cornyn ?

Posts like these really make me wonder if you are a troll....

BLOCKED!

K, I imagine a lot of people have blocked you for making troll like posts with a name like "LoneStarDem" and constantly making GOP hack like posts

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Which one of the Castro twins run for United States Senator & get spanked by Cornyn ?

Posts like these really make me wonder if you are a troll....

BLOCKED!

K, I imagine a lot of people have blocked you for making troll like posts with a name like "LoneStarDem" and constantly making GOP hack like posts

Says a poster and former GOP hack named dfw"libertylover"

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Which one of the Castro twins run for United States Senator & get spanked by Cornyn ?

Posts like these really make me wonder if you are a troll....

BLOCKED!

K, I imagine a lot of people have blocked you for making troll like posts with a name like "LoneStarDem" and constantly making GOP hack like posts

Says a poster and former GOP hack named dfw"libertylover"

Which is why I know them when I see them!

[Blackacre]

Which one of the Castro twins run for United States Senator & get spanked by Cornyn ?

Posts like these really make me wonder if you are a troll....

BLOCKED!

K, I imagine a lot of people have blocked you for making troll like posts with a name like "LoneStarDem" and constantly making GOP hack like posts

Says a poster and former GOP hack named dfw"libertylover"

to be fair, I have one friend on atlas who also supports Sanders for the 2020 election whose nonchangeable username is "LibertarianRepublican"

Anyway, I'll be rooting for Luigi Castro

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO and TX are Dems to lose and IA and AL and NC remain competitive. Trump keep hammering away at McCain legacy is making Kelly's job easiest.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113803643151704064

Emboldened after their gains in 2018 — including the closer-than-expected Senate race between U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke — the state party is establishing a "Cornyn War Room" to "define Cornyn before he defines himself," according to a memo. It is unlike anything the party has done in recent history surrounding a U.S. Senate race, and it reflects the urgency with which Texas Democrats are approaching a potentially pivotal election cycle.

"In 2020, we must seize the opportunity to flip Texas," says the memo from the state party, which was obtained by The Texas Tribune. It cites recent polling that found Texas "essentially tied" in the 2020 presidential election and that 64 percent of voters do not know or dislike Cornyn. "We cannot wait for the primary dust to settle before we launch our attacks on John Cornyn."

The project, the memo adds, will "define Cornyn and reveal him for what he is — a coward, afraid of shadows on his right and left."

[Bidenworth2020]

http://

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

Personally, I strongly prefer Castro for senate and her giving it another try in 13. She is great and all, but she would not get the Hispanic turnout we need.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

You forgot that 2020 will easily be 3-5 points more Republican than 2018, so even with tour parameters, that is a 3-5 Cornyn/Trump victory, but I feel you are being way too generous to Democrats, it seems like a competitve state, but i doubt it actually flips, I see it being like NC/FL for a while and then going the way of VA, but these changes won’t happen overnight

I think Lean R is appropriate for this race

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

You forgot that 2020 will easily be 3-5 points more Republican than 2018, so even with tour parameters, that is a 3-5 Cornyn/Trump victory, but I feel you are being way too generous to Democrats, it seems like a competitve state, but i doubt it actually flips, I see it being like NC/FL for a while and then going the way of VA, but these changes won’t happen overnight

I think Lean R is appropriate for this race

Sure 2020 will likely not be as Democratic as 2018 for the country as a whole, but certain states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia could still swing towards the Democrats because swing is obviously not uniform everywhere in the country. Maybe not enough to actually flip the states (especially Georgia and Texas), but enough to actually make Republicans sweat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Jersey conservative says that Susan Collins can win in ME and Ernst win in IA, if a Dem nominee carries either ME or IA, but Dems cant win in AZ or GA or TX, if Trump carries the state. Dems are likely to win 51-48, PVI and EC college; if its a Harris-Beto ticket; either Castro or MJ and Kelly and Dem nominee win: CO, TX and AZ and even win AL. As a result, Dems win trifecta: Oval office, House, Senate with a 279-303 prez map

[S019]

New Jersey conservative says that Susan Collins can win in ME and Ernst win in IA, if a Dem nominer carries either ME or IA, but Dems cant win in AZ or GA or TX, if Trump carries the state. Dems are likely to win 51-48, PVI and EC college; if its a Harris-Beto ticket; either Castro or MJ and Kelly and Dem nominee win: CO, TX and AZ and even win AL. As a result, Dems win trifecta: Oval office, House, Senate with a 279-303 prez map

Lol

Unless you think Moore or Gaetz will be the nominee
AL is

Safe R with Generic R
Lean R with Moore
Likely R with Gaetz


Lol

IA is basically Likely R, and Trump has a good shot to win IA by double digits, I mean Dems could win it in a 2008 redux, but the truth is IA is Likely R, Ernst is Likely R, Axne and Finkenauer are very vulnerable


It is very unlikely for Dems to pick up the Senate, they have lots of seats to target (NC, ME, GA, TX). but actually winning these seats is a whoe different story, if you believe MJ Hegar can win TX while Trunp carries it, then, surely Cory Gardner can win CO, even if Trump loses it by 7 points, right, the short answer is “NO!”, because, Trump defines politics now, and there are some places that are willing to overlook the Trump factor (WI-03, MN-07), but they are few and far between, and TX is not one of then (neither is CO), ME is an example of one, but Susan Collins is a moderate, popular incumbent, whose seat will flip as soon as she retires, and she’ll have a reduced margin this time anyway, but still win by high single digits to low double digits

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems won AZ congressional seats and TX congressional seats in 2018 while losing statewide office.

Yes, it was a Dem +8 year, but Dems lost OH, FL and IA gubernatorial elections.

Charlie Cook had TX tossup last time around and AZ as well. The Senate can be won. But to say Collins can win in ME while Dem carries the state, but Dems cant win TX, the last poll had it a 47 tie in AZ and TX. No polling in AL.

Dems are doing well in 2019Gov races in KY, MS and LA. We like our chances in AL-Sen

[Adam Griffin]

http://

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

Personally, I strongly prefer Castro for senate and her giving it another try in 13. She is great and all, but she would not get the Hispanic turnout we need.

What exactly is the justification for why either Castro would spike Latino turnout above/beyond any statewide candidate with a Latino surname? I really don't get it. They're basically the epitome of neutral/generic D and Julian (and I assume Joaquin as well) doesn't even speak Spanish.

[S019]

Dems won AZ congressional seats and TX congressional seats in 2018 while losing statewide office.

Yes, it was a Dem +8 year, but Dems lost OH, FL and IA gubernatorial elections.

Charlie Cook had TX tossup last time around and AZ as well. The Senate can be won. But to say Collins can win in ME while Dem carries the state, but Dems cant win TX, the last poll had it a 47 tie in AZ and TX. No polling un AL.

Dems are doing well in 2019Gov races in KY, MS and LA. We like our chances in AL-Sen

If you believe Charlie Cook’s ratings, do you really believe CO is Lean R, or that Gary Peters and Jeanne Shaheen are Safe D, NM Senate is not Safe D, or that KS and/or TN are not Safe R

Also Cook’s final 2018 ratings had NJ and TN as tossups, WV as Lean D (it was close enough to be a tossup), which do not line up with the final results

When Louise Slaughter died, he rated her Safe D seat as Likely D, he rated the Safe D Philadelphia seat vacated by Pat Meehan as Likely D


In 2020, he has rated like Torres Small, Cunningham, and Horn, tossups, when it is clear that their wins were flukes. He has also rated Collin Peterson as Lean d, even though it’s clear that, that race should be rated as a tossup

[SCNCmod]

http://

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

Personally, I strongly prefer Castro for senate and her giving it another try in 13. She is great and all, but she would not get the Hispanic turnout we need.

What exactly is the justification for why either Castro would spike Latino turnout above/beyond any statewide candidate with a Latino surname? I really don't get it. They're basically the epitome of neutral/generic D and Julian (and I assume Joaquin as well) doesn't even speak Spanish.

There are studies that show that minority candidates do increase turnout (& win a higher proportion) among voter of the same racial minority.  Which I think makes obvious sense.  And the Castros do not have to speak fluent spanish for latino's to identify or connect with them.  It not like you have to speak fluent Spanish to have an authentic understanding of Mexican traditions, customs, etc. (passed on to them growing up in a household with their Latina mom & grandmother... in addition  to being married to Latina wives).  

I've always thought speaking spanish was overrated as the feeling of a cultural connecting factor (both for non-Latinos who speak spanish & 1st generation Latinos who do not speak fluent Spanish.  The former does not elicit a deeper cultural connection to Latinos ... and the latter does not lessen such connection).  In fact, I would guess that the multigenerational family difference regarding language is something that uniquely connects many Latinos (and not something that a 60 year old White Senator from Virginia who happens to speak Fluent Spanish would fully appreciate... this is referencing the crazy notion I heard occasionally in 2016- that Tim Kaine speaking spanish could help connect with Latino voters, etc).

[LoneStarDem]

If you have to guess, who do you see the TX Dems getting as their sacrificial lamb against Cornyn in 2020 ?

I see that Wendy Davis ruled out running.

[Zaybay]

If you have to guess, who do you see the TX Dems getting as their sacrificial lamb viable candidate against Cornyn in 2020 ?

I see that Wendy Davis ruled out running.

Pretty sure it will be Castro, but I hear that MJ Hegar is making moves for the seat as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MJ is the best bet. Should Beto be the nominee, whom will take Biden slot should he chose not to run, MJ can win.

Whats the big deal with Castro, his bro campaign is going nowhere

[SCNCmod]

MJ is the best bet. Should Beto be the nominee, whom will take Biden slot should he chose not to run, MJ can win.

Whats the big deal with Castro, his bro campaign is going nowhere

Castro strikes me as someone who would do much better in a Senate Campaign- where he is sort of the center of attention ... vs in a field of 20 trying to compete to get noticed.  Casto seems like he could be an aggressive campaigner (as a senate nominee)  but doesn't seem like he is good at or enjoys trying to grab the center of attention.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1120462515442470912

[SnowLabrador]

She has poor judgment if she thinks a Senate candidacy would be better for her than a TX-31 rematch

This, and Castro is a better Senate candidate anyway.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1120462515442470912

Yas qween!

[lfromnj]

Our Beloved John Cornyn will carry Texas 134 against whichever far leftist the Democrats put up. FYI this district was +15 Romney.

https://twitter.com/emilshabanovTX/status/1120510745291231232