TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Zaybay]

I would say Beto again would be the best bet.

[Zaybay]

The problem with pegging how strong/weak Cornyn is is just how unknown he is to TX. With Ted Cruz, you know what his approval is, a slight net positive(yes, it is positive, he is not actually that unpopular). With Cornyn, you can get such a large range, from Morning Consult's +20, to a couple TX pollster's -20. If there was a senator to draw parallels to, it would be Bill Nelson of FL. Both are old, rather poor campaigners, staples of the state, and rather unknown to the state.

Personally, I see him as the weaker of the two. Unlike Cruz, who is able to energize turnout for his base, Cornyn is just kinda there, not having a large presence. He has never had a tough election in his entire career(wow! Sounds so familiar) and has had campaigning trouble in the past. Not to mention, its a presidential election, meaning Hispanic turnout will not crater as it usually does in the state.

If Cornyn were to face Beto again, I would have to tip the scale to the young former congressman, having name rec, money, and stardom to take him out. Anyone else, it would probably be an uphill battle, but not an unwinnable one.

[Zaybay]

Apparently TX Law allows Beto to run both for the Presidency and for the Senate at the same time... So there we go!

Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020]Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020

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Bad idea, but it does mean that if Beto runs in the presidential primary, and loses near the end, he can just default to TX Sen.

[Zaybay]

Oh, thank god. Schumer is actually pretty good at this recruitment game.

[Zaybay]

Do you guys think Cornyn would be more beatable in 2020 than Cruz was in 2018?

I would say it depends. Cornyn and Cruz are rather polar opposites when it comes to strength and weaknesses.

Cruz was a senator everyone knew, and had an opinion about. While this meant the Ds could get a lot of Cruz detractors on their side, it also meant that Cruz had a rather high floor, especially since his approval had him at a net positive.

Cornyn is the exact opposite. Hes basically Bill Nelson, people kinda know him, but also dont. He has a high number of unknowns, and his approval bounces between being extremely popular, and extremely unpopular.

For 2020, you have different factors at play. 2020 may or may not be D favoring, which is a possible shift in favor of the Rs. But TX itself will have 2 more years to move Left, a shift in favor of the Ds. You will also have minority turnout back to Presidential levels, a point for the Ds, but you might not have the stellar candidate Beto turned out to be, which is a point for the Rs.

Basically, its too early to tell. The playing field has shifted since 2018, and its hard to tell who now holds the advantage.

[Zaybay]

Wow, Cornyn's got some serious Nelson Syndrome. ~40% of voters dont even know who he is.

[Zaybay]

Wasted Potential. Hopefully MJ Hegar shows Cornyn the door.

[Zaybay]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

[Zaybay]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

You're right. How do Democrats, who do well with minorities such as Hispanics, do better in a presidential year, when Hispanic Turnout is usually at its height, compared to a midterm, when minority, especially Hispanic turnout craters? How can Democrats get those 200,000 voters? Its not like TX is a rapidly changing state with a rather obvious population boom in Urban metros with large suburbs that are swinging their way. I have no idea

Also, Cruz wasnt unpopular. All polling data showed him to be rather popular. Margins /=/ popularity, otherwise Bill Nelson would have won by 15 points.

[Zaybay]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

You're right. How do Democrats, who do well with minorities such as Hispanics, do better in a presidential year, when Hispanic Turnout is usually at its height, compared to a midterm, when minority, especially Hispanic turnout craters? How can Democrats get those 200,000 voters? Its not like TX is a rapidly changing state with a rather obvious population boom in Urban metros with large suburbs that are swinging their way. I have no idea

Also, Cruz wasnt unpopular. All polling data showed him to be rather popular. Margins /=/ popularity, otherwise Bill Nelson would have won by 15 points.

Many of the people who voted for O'Rourke did so because of an intense personal dislike for Cruz. Bear in mind that 400,000 Texans split their tickets between O'Rourke, who lost by 3 points, and Abbott, who won by 13 points. It's very plausible to assume that those Abbott-O'Rourke voters approved of the Governor but disapproved of Cruz. And as I've already said, Cruz ran behind every other statewide Republican; even the controversial Dan Patrick did better than he.

As for your overall argument, polls indicated that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill were underwater by Election Day, as was Heller. And they all lost. Manchin's approvals were close to a tie, and Tester was just above water, if I recall correctly, and they both won reelection. Patrick Morrisey's loss was, in part, due to his own extreme disapproval ratings: he was underwater by 20 points. And every incumbent who had a positive approval rating otherwise won reelection.

Alright, first off, you are arguing on a false premise, that Cruz was unpopular. As both Exit Polls showed, along with general polling that was done, his approval was around 55-45, or even sometimes 55-40. Of course, this pales in comparison to Abbots Godlike approval, which sat around 60-30. He was much more popular than Dan Patrick, and Patrick's large margin can highly be attributed to the fact that low-info voters voted for Abbot and his Lt. , not Abbot and Patrick.

Second, if there is any philosophy I subscribe to when it comes to politics, its that popularity is the best indicator of success. But only victoriescan be gleamed by popularity, not margins. Cruz was more popular than Patrick, but both had a positive approval in the state, and they both won. Cruz's margin wasnt because he was more unpopular, but because he was facing Beto, while most Texan Dems didnt know the Dem Lt. facing Patrick.

Anyway, the Ds can definitely make up the ground needed to beat Cornyn, especially since he suffers from Nelson syndrome of being old, boring, and rather unknown to the state. It will take a lot though, especially since Beto is probably not running for the senate seat.

[Zaybay]

Im not going to start a quoting chain with the two of you, so Im just gonna lay down my points here:

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You cant pick and choose what race you want to use as the benchmark for a state, thats just ridiculous and only serves to prove a narrative. You should always use the most partisan/top ballot races possible, which are, most of the time, senate. Gubers are the worst to use because of how non-partisan they can become, which is why New England has 3 R governors while LA and MT have Ds.

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Its not that slow.

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As Ifromnj pointed out, Beto was able to get 180,000 more voters than Clinton in 2 years. This wasnt the Rs collapsing, the Ds were able to get 180,000 more voters in a midterm compared to the previous presidential race, which was already one of the best results for Ds in a long time.

It should also be pointed out that higher turnout benefits the Ds in TX. This is because a good portion of the D base, Hispanics, dont show up in low turnout elections. These voters would actually make the state likely D if they bothered to vote. This is why polls of adults in the state of TX get Trump's approval in the mid to high 30s, while registered voter polls get it in the high 40s to low 50s. In fact, that was Beto's whole strategy, to get turnout as high as possible. A presidential year is exactly what the Ds need to win TX, as that will juice up Hispanic voters to come to the polls.

[Zaybay]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

1. You are still saying that Cruz was unpopular when every piece of info points to that he wasnt. At all. Stop saying it.

2. Its very easy for a gubernatorial candidate to outrun the senate or house race, especially if they are popular.
Just in 2018: SD, MA, VT, NH, KS, MD, TX, CT, and AZ.

[Zaybay]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

1. You are still saying that Cruz was unpopular when every piece of info points to that he wasnt. At all. Stop saying it.

2. Its very easy for a gubernatorial candidate to outrun the senate or house race, especially if they are popular.
Just in 2018: SD, MA, VT, NH, KS, MD, TX, CT, and AZ.

Of course, Cruz is still popular among the Republican base, but not necessarily so among independents. And there is a difference between approving of someone in their official capacity and personally approving of them. As to your second point, of course many gubernatorial nominees can run ahead of the federal ticket. But that is not always the case.

You can keep saying the same falsehood in different ways, it wont make it true. Polling shows he is popular:
With Rs
With Is
this is backed by numerous polling outfits. He got a close race because of Beto, the Blue Wave, and the fact TX is moving Left, its really that simple.

And, of course, while not every state sees the Guber outrun the state's partisan races, TX obviously was the case.

[Zaybay]

Yes, Cornyn is unknown, but Dems don't really have a bench here other than the Castros and O'Rourke. Also many voters in TX can take their anger out on Trump, this is why many suburban Republicans won O'Rourke districts, these are Reps who hate Trump/Cruz. Cornyn is Generic R, I think he beats Castro 50-46, Hegar 51-45, and he beats Generic D 55-45

People across the Lone Star State KNOW who Cornyn is: the man has won lots of statewide elections: TX Supreme Court Justice-Place 7(1990, 1996), TX State AG (1998) & United States Senator (2002, 2008 & 2014).

No they dont, we have polling of this, his unknown factor ranges from 1/3 to 1/2 the state. Hes just been a generic R that no one has ever really cared about when voting.

[Zaybay]

For those arguing about Castro's politics, hes a member of the moderate faction, and is a rather high level member of the New Democrats. But unlike Beto, who was on the Conservative wing of the New Dems, Castro resides on the Left of the New Dems, so much so that he votes similarly to the Right-Wing of the CPC.

[Zaybay]

If you have to guess, who do you see the TX Dems getting as their sacrificial lamb viable candidate against Cornyn in 2020 ?

I see that Wendy Davis ruled out running.

Pretty sure it will be Castro, but I hear that MJ Hegar is making moves for the seat as well.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1120462515442470912

[Zaybay]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

[Zaybay]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

I agree Castro is probably the favorite but her base is Austin which is basically the white liberal area of Texas. White liberals are gonna turnout at a much better rate than Hispanics from San Antonio. Also female+decent fundraiser gives her a decent shot.

That may be true for someone like Beto, but I dont see it applying to Hegar. In such a race, she would be the more Conservative option, having run as a Blue Dog and on a rather Conservative platform back in 2018. Progressive and Liberal Groups would likely side with Castro in such a primary.

[Zaybay]

Hes going to die of old age in that House seat, isnt he?

[Zaybay]

Great bio and very charismatic with no voting record to attack for being too liberal or whatever.

I'm glad Castro's out. He'd be associated with his brother, who's running way to the left with zero charisma in the POTUS primary. Joaquin would have a difficult time denouncing everything his brother says. I think Hegar'll be a way better candidate.

Im starting to wonder if y'all were awake during the 2018 midterms when a guy running on a Medicare for All, Tight Gun Control, Pro-Choice Platform almost beat Ted Cruz.