🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1523370852297109504?s=20&t=ht31eD4YE...

Union would be just short of a majority based on the current count.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Love that AfD takes a big L on Victory in Europe Day 💕

The one actually interesting thing about this election is the big SSW improvement. Was it more mobilising Danish-speakers, soaking up floating leftish voters, or a little of both?

Per discussion from last year's election, SSW has attempted to broaden its appeal by going from being an explicit Danish-minority party to adopting more regionalist rhetoric ("northern Germany is being ignored by the rest of the country", etc.).

Can't say anything about this particular election in particular but I would assume this result indicates that they are continuing to reap the rewards of the same strategy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is this the first time AfD has not been elected to a state parliament since the refugee crisis?

Yup, though in the 2020 Hamburg state elections, exit polls initially saw them out too. In Saarland and Thuringia the last precinct to report decided the fate of Greens and FDP.

Today's state election in Schleswig-Holstein is the third state or federal level election in the entire party's history in which the AfD has failed to pass the 5% threshold.

The first two instances were the federal election (4.7%) and the Hessian state election (4.1%) that were both held on September 22, 2013.

(Coincidentally, these were also the final two state/federal level elections that were held in Germany prior to the Russian invasions of Crimea and Donbas.)

The first time the AfD obtained more than 5% of the vote was in the European Parliament election on May 25, 2014, followed by similar results in the state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia later the same year. The AfD has always passed the 5% threshold ever since.

[Astatine]

Is this the first time AfD has not been elected to a state parliament since the refugee crisis?

Yup, though in the 2020 Hamburg state elections, exit polls initially saw them out too. In Saarland and Thuringia the last precinct to report decided the fate of Greens and FDP.

Today's state election in Schleswig-Holstein is the third state or federal level election in the entire party's history in which the AfD has failed to pass the 5% threshold.

The first two instances were the federal election (4.7%) and the Hessian state election (4.1%) that were both held on September 22, 2013.

(Coincidentally, these were also the final two state/federal level elections that were held in Germany prior to the Russian invasions of Crimea and Donbas.)

The first time the AfD obtained more than 5% of the vote was in the European Parliament election on May 25, 2014, followed by similar results in the state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia later the same year. The AfD has always passed the 5% threshold ever since.

Election results since 2020:

- Hamburg '20: 5.1% (-0.8)
- RLP '21: 8.3% (-4.3)
- B-W '21: 9.7% (-5.4)
- Saxony-Anhalt '21: 20.8% (-3.5)
- M-V '21: 16.7% (-4.1)
- Berlin '21: 8.0% (-6.2)
- federal '21: 10.3% (-2.3)
- Saarland '21: 5.7% (-0.5)
- S-H '21: 4.5% (-1.4)

Consecutive losses for the 9th time.

[President Johnson]

Meh, but Günther actually has a relatively good record for a CDU politician and his centrist or even liberal stances helped to gain a lot of votes from folks usually preferring the SPD and some disaffected FDP voters.

Will be interesting to see whether he prefers the Greens or FDP as coalition partner. Günther himself probably leans towards the Greens, though the FDP as smaller partner would give CDU more influence.

[Astatine]

Some early morning takes:

- This election solidifies the trend that incumbents get reelected. Since the 2017 federal election, only one incumbent Minister-President got defeated, and that only happened because his opponent was way more popular than him. The times where parties receive over 40% in elections are not over yet. Doesn't mean too much for NRW next week though, since Hendrik Wüst is only mildly popular and hasn't been in office for long.
- Greens are still competition for SPD, only because CDU/CSU and SPD became the two largest parties once again in September it doesn't mean that the old "Volksparteien" recovered on a permanent basis.
- This is a warning sign for the FDP who almost halved their vote share and dropped to the worst result in Schleswig-Holstein in 20 years or so. Granted, they had a popular candidate for 6 elections in a row (Wolfgang Kubicki who's now in federal politics), but even though the party has surprisingly good numbers in party competences (Economy, Education, Jobs), much of their vote got swallowed by CDU. They need to increase their profile in the federal government, else 2025 could become nasty.
- AfD are beyond their peak and this might not be the only state parliament they will drop out of. The West has never been fertile ground for the party, but the party's increasing tilt to the extreme right and constant infighting doesn't bode well for elections in other states where they barely got more than 5% last time.
- Linke? In their worst crisis since foundation. The party was reduced to PDS/WASG numbers in two elections in Western states now. While the party had the East as stronghold to compensate their abysmal appeal to Western voters in the past, they're now losing votes everywhere. At this rate, doubtful if Linke can remain a parliamentary party in 2025.

[Hnv1]

What's with the ethnic Danish party increasing their vote by 50%?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's with the ethnic Danish party increasing their vote by 50%?

Former disgruntled SPD voters who searched for a centre-left alternative apparently.


According to this chart, the SSW won most of their new votes (14,000) from the SPD.





And according to this poll, 47% of the Schleswig-Holsteinians incl. 43% of all former SPD voters said that the SSW is a "good alternative for those who are currently disappointed in the SPD".

[President Johnson]

Interesting news: Daniel Günther wants to continue governing with a Jamaica coalition, although CDU is just one seat away from an own majority and one partner would already be enough for a working majority. A CDU convention has already approved this move. So this will be some sort of hyper-grand coalition, with only SPD and SSW in opposition.

After Saxony Anhalt, this would be the second state governed by a three-party coalition although two would already be enough (though CDU-SPD only have a single seat majority there without the FDP).

[Oryxslayer]

All of the (many) polls released today put the incumbent Union up about 3 points on the SPD in NRW, so while it wouldn't be a shocker for the SPD to win, the Union now has the advantage heading into the weekend.

All that said, the Greens are effectively kingmakers, being the main single party that can give either the Union or the SPD a majority coalition. Like nationally, they could break custom and align with the loser, but one imagines that would be a difficult pill to swallow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The composition of the Bundesrat is rather important given that the Greens are part of the governing federal coalition and NRW is the largest state.

[DL]

The composition of the Bundesrat is rather important given that the Greens are part of the governing federal coalition and NRW is the largest state.

If I'm not mistaken, the composition of the coalition in a state government has an impact on how that state's Bundesrat members can vote. So hypothetically a CDU majority government in NRW would send Bundesrat members who would have the power to vote down legislation, but if NRW end up with a CDU led "grand coalition" or a CDU led black-Green coalition, the NRW members in the Bundesrat are "neutered" and cannot vote down bills.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

All of the (many) polls released today put the incumbent Union up about 3 points on the SPD in NRW, so while it wouldn't be a shocker for the SPD to win, the Union now has the advantage heading into the weekend.

One thing the SPD does have going for it is that their candidate has been gaining ground in the preferred PM polling throughout the campaign, and the same thing happening last time round was definitely a good sign for the CDU and Laschet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I'm not mistaken, the composition of the coalition in a state government has an impact on how that state's Bundesrat members can vote. So hypothetically a CDU majority government in NRW would send Bundesrat members who would have the power to vote down legislation, but if NRW end up with a CDU led "grand coalition" or a CDU led black-Green coalition, the NRW members in the Bundesrat are "neutered" and cannot vote down bills.

It's all very complicated (especially as it isn't uncommon for votes to be cast as a block vote in the manner of the British Labour Movement: one delegate casting all votes allocated to the state), but, yes, when the votes of a state delegation are split, it counts as an abstention. But in general you would certainly prefer the government you're part of federally to have as many positive votes as possible. It's also the case that NRW is not Hesse, where Green-SPD relations are pretty poor for reasons largely related to municipal politics in Frankfurt.

[President Johnson]

Last minute NRW prediction (hopefully I'm wrong):

CDU: 31.1%
SPD: 27.5%
Greens: 15.3%
FDP: 9.1%
AfD: 7.4%
---
Left: 2.9%

Incoming government: Black-Green coalition under Minister-President Hendrick Wüst (CDU), or Jamaica if CDU-Greens isn't enough in the end.

[President Johnson]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

[jaichind]

exit poll   CDU 35  SPD  27.5

[Astatine]

[Mike88]

ZDF seat projection:

76 CDU
60 SPD
39 Grune
12 FDP
12 AfD

CDU+FDP: 88
SPD+Grune: 99
CDU+Grune: 115
CDU+FDP+Grune: 127
SPD+FDP+Grune: 111

100 seats needed for a majority

[DL]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

This could still yield a red-green majority especially if thé FDP drops below 5%

[President Johnson]

Apparently, turnout is down from 65% to 56% compared to 2017.

[Oryxslayer]

Notable spd underperformance when compared to polls for most of the campaign,  which were tied, and final polls which has a slight union lead. Anyway, union-greens will form the government, spd could have attempted to challenge German political customs if it was closer to polls, but not like this.

[President Johnson]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

This could still yield a red-green majority especially if thé FDP drops below 5%

Definitely, though it's still disappointing for Social Democrats.

Even with the FDP, a trafficlight coalition is still possible, though I'm skeptical FDP Leader Stamp is doing it although this could be his only path to staying in government since CDU/Greens don't need him and CDU/FDP lost its majority. I could also see a scenario in which SPD/Greens have a one seat majority and offer the FDP a place at the table to form a larger governing majority. In this case, the FDP might be open for it.

Glorious news, however: The streak of AfD losing votes compared to the last election continues.

And yet another pathetic result for Die Linke.

[Astatine]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

This could still yield a red-green majority especially if thé FDP drops below 5%

Definitely, though it's still disappointing for Social Democrats.

Even with the FDP, a trafficlight coalition is still possible, though I'm skeptical FDP Leader Stamp is doing it although this could be his only path to staying in government since CDU/Greens don't need him and CDU/FDP lost its majority. I could also see a scenario in which SPD/Greens have a one seat majority and offer the FDP a place at the table to form a larger governing majority. In this case, the FDP might be open for it.

Glorious news, however: The streak of AfD losing votes compared to the last election continues.

I doubt that after crashing to a such a horrible result FDP will be open to join a SPD/Greens government.

[DL]

How different would a CDU-Green government be from the former CDU-FDP government?