🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Who wants to write something about NRW Environment Minister Ursula Heinen-Esser (CDU), who has just announced to step down?

https://twitter.com/DLFNachrichten/status/1512090416216117248

I hope Federal Gender Minister Anne Spiegel (Greens) is going to follow suit.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1516998671090520064?t=w3HgEs_d9vHSZoFgmQ5vX...

Absolutely believable result, Günther is extremely popular, this result perfectly goes in line with the results from Saarland, M-V, Saxony-Anhalt and RLP. Black-Yellow at 47%, Red-Green at 36% - CDU/FDP even with a majority. Not common these days (outlier for now, but certainly not impossible).

62% would vote for Günther directly, 10% for Green top candidate Heinold, 8% for SPD candidate Losse-Müller. Unlike in Saarland, the SPD candidate is an absolute no name - even a plurality of SPD voters would opt for Günther. Likely CDU for now, close to safe.

Approvals/disapprovals:
Günther (CDU) 76/16
Heinold (Grüne) 40/19
Buchholz (FDP) 33/18
Harms (SSW) 25/12
Losse-Müller (SPD) 15/14
Nobis (AfD) 12/16

Government (CDU/Grüne/FDP) approval:
75% satisfied
22% dissatisfied

Full poll: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/schleswig-holstein/landtagswahl_2022/NDR-Umfrage-in-SH-CDU-vor-SPD-und-Gruene-Abstand-waechst,umfrage1294.html

[Oryxslayer]

Has there been any recent polling on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? Yeah is somewhat of a backwater in terms of population size, and yes it's a ways off from a election, but given recent events it might be interesting to see what the people think - especially since the SPD has been dominant here for 20ish years.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Has there been any recent polling on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? Yeah is somewhat of a backwater in terms of population size, and yes it's a ways off from a election, but given recent events it might be interesting to see what the people think - especially since the SPD has been dominant here for 20ish years.

Forsa, March 24, 2022:

SPD: 34%
AfD: 16%
CDU: 16%
Linke: 12%
Grüne: 7%
FDP: 5%

[Astatine]

Anke Rehlinger was elected Minister-President of Saarland today, with 32/51 votes. The other three votes came from AfD.

Guess that's their form of trolling to counter the talking point that one shouldn't accept an election when getting voted in thanks to them. Which ofc didn't technically happen, since Rehlinger had a solid majority on her own (unlike Kemmerich in Thuringia 2020), but trolls be trolls.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1519709658931421186

CDU/FDP at 47%, SPD/Greens/AfD/SSW combined at 45%

AfD just barely above the threshold, it could be the first state parliament with AfD dropping out.

Preferred party as head of government:
CDU 46%
SPD 22%
Greens 14%

Politician satisfaction:
Günther (CDU) 74%
Heinold (Greens) 38%
Buchholz (FDP) 33%
Harms (SSW) 23%
Losse-Müller (SPD) 18%
Nobis (AfD) 9%

Preferred Minister-President:
Günther 61%
Heinold 10%
Losse-Müller 9%

[Oryxslayer]

Any particular reason why the Schleswig-Holstein Union would prefer the FDP over the Greens, or visa versa? The government right now is Jamaica after all.

The other major contest is looking like a repeat of 2017, just with the FDP and Greens swapping positions. Union and SPD in a tight photo finish, Linke having no chance at entry, and AfD at a middling and irrelevant 7-8%.

[Astatine]

Any particular reason why the Schleswig-Holstein Union would prefer the FDP over the Greens, or visa versa? The government right now is Jamaica after all.

CDU is generally closest to FDP and SPD closest to Greens, but classical bloc division is a thing of the past now. You will barely have any election where Red-Green or Black-Yellow gets a majority, most of those elections are flukes (NRW 2017) or special circumstances (Hamburg 2020, being a very left-wing city in general). Ofc there are exceptions to the rule, but in general if there is a chance, CDU and FDP as well as SPD and Greens find together. In S-H, CDU and FDP have a long tradition of governing and cooperating together, so if black-yellow gets a majority on its own, it's likely to be formed. Jamaica was more of a forced choice because nobody wanted a GroKo and neither black-yellow nor black-green had an own majority. But they've been working along well in the past years.

If black-green gets a majority but black-yellow doesn't, it's the most probable option.

[President Johnson]

NRW state election a week later is going to be a lot more interesting, where the polls continue to be neck-in-neck.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any particular reason why the Schleswig-Holstein Union would prefer the FDP over the Greens, or visa versa? The government right now is Jamaica after all.

The other major contest is looking like a repeat of 2017, just with the FDP and Greens swapping positions. Union and SPD in a tight photo finish, Linke having no chance at entry, and AfD at a middling and irrelevant 7-8%.

Governor Günther said he wanted to maintain the Jamaika coalition even in case only two parties are necessary in order to form a government; that very rare kind of "oversized coalition" currently exists in Saxony-Anhalt.
Both the Greens and the FDP, however, already declined Günther's offer.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1519709658931421186
CDU/FDP at 47%, SPD/Greens/AfD/SSW combined at 45%

AfD just barely above the threshold, it could be the first state parliament with AfD dropping out.

Preferred party as head of government:
CDU 46%
SPD 22%
Greens 14%

Politician satisfaction:
Günther (CDU) 74%
Heinold (Greens) 38%
Buchholz (FDP) 33%
Harms (SSW) 23%
Losse-Müller (SPD) 18%
Nobis (AfD) 9%

Preferred Minister-President:
Günther 61%
Heinold 10%
Losse-Müller 9%

What happend to linke ?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1519709658931421186
CDU/FDP at 47%, SPD/Greens/AfD/SSW combined at 45%

AfD just barely above the threshold, it could be the first state parliament with AfD dropping out.

Preferred party as head of government:
CDU 46%
SPD 22%
Greens 14%

Politician satisfaction:
Günther (CDU) 74%
Heinold (Greens) 38%
Buchholz (FDP) 33%
Harms (SSW) 23%
Losse-Müller (SPD) 18%
Nobis (AfD) 9%

Preferred Minister-President:
Günther 61%
Heinold 10%
Losse-Müller 9%

What happend to linke ?

Dropped out of the S-H Landtag in 2012 and never recovered.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1519709658931421186
CDU/FDP at 47%, SPD/Greens/AfD/SSW combined at 45%

AfD just barely above the threshold, it could be the first state parliament with AfD dropping out.

Preferred party as head of government:
CDU 46%
SPD 22%
Greens 14%

Politician satisfaction:
Günther (CDU) 74%
Heinold (Greens) 38%
Buchholz (FDP) 33%
Harms (SSW) 23%
Losse-Müller (SPD) 18%
Nobis (AfD) 9%

Preferred Minister-President:
Günther 61%
Heinold 10%
Losse-Müller 9%

What happend to linke ?

Dropped out of the S-H Landtag in 2012 and never recovered.

How many more Landtag's are they going to drop out off ? I've heard the party is edging around the abyss right now ?

[Astatine]

Thomas LOSSe-Müller (SPD)

[jaichind]

[Astatine]

CDU-Greens, CDU-FDP and even CDU-SSW with a majority if AfD remains out. ARD suggests CDU is one seat short of an absolute majority.

[jaichind]

This seems like a CDU outperformance relative to pre-election polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Would be a very peculiar set of elections if first a popular SPD candidate wins a majority in Saarland, then a popular CDU incumbent wins a majority in S-S-H, then the two parties effectively tie in NR-W.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would be a very peculiar set of elections if first a popular SPD candidate wins a majority in Saarland, then a popular CDU incumbent wins a majority in S-S-H, then the two parties effectively tie in NR-W.

Pretty normal for German state elections, really.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is this the first time AfD has not been elected to a state parliament since the refugee crisis?

[Astatine]

Is this the first time AfD has not been elected to a state parliament since the refugee crisis?

Yup, though in the 2020 Hamburg state elections, exit polls initially saw them out too. In Saarland and Thuringia the last precinct to report decided the fate of Greens and FDP.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1523349350680002562?s=20&t=ht31eD4YE...

AfD out, Union a bit off of a majority.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

This seems like a CDU outperformance relative to pre-election polls.

As soon as it became clear Habeck wasn't going to be the Green candidate (why would he have been?) this election turned into a classic German case of 'nice competent drama-free incumbent PM flattens relatively anonymous competition', so that's not really a surprise.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The one actually interesting thing about this election is the big SSW improvement. Was it more mobilising Danish-speakers, soaking up floating leftish voters, or a little of both?

[pilskonzept]

The one actually interesting thing about this election is the big SSW improvement. Was it more mobilising Danish-speakers, soaking up floating leftish voters, or a little of both?

On the constituency level, it seems SSW improved everywhere, including in places where they did not run a constituency (direct vote) candidate, like Dithmarschen and Ostholstein.
They also improved in places with actual Danish speakers like Flensburg-Land, but soaking up protest voters must have been key.