🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[DL]

Horrible news for the SPD in its mega stronghold Bremen, which holds its state election on May 26.
Imagine Washington D.C. elects a Republican mayor... 😆

I don't have to imagine. New York City has regularly elected Republicans as mayor (i.e. Giuliani and Bloomberg) and so has Los Angeles.

[DL]

Horrible news for the SPD in its mega stronghold Bremen, which holds its state election on May 26.
Imagine Washington D.C. elects a Republican mayor... 😆

I don't have to imagine. New York City has regularly elected Republicans as mayor (i.e. Giuliani and Bloomberg) and so has Los Angeles.

Washington DC is also over 70% African-American - so it would be comparable to a city in Germany where three quarters of the voting population were refugees from Syria and their kids - if the CDU was a racist party that wanted to expel them all. Not sure there is any analogy there
But Washington D.C. is way bigger Demcratic stronghold than NYC or LA.
Berlin and Hamburg have voted CDU in the past also, but Bremen literally never did.

[DL]

The AFD is running a interesting campaign in the eastern elections: Is seems to be focused around "Wende 2.0" and including much more German Symbolism (incl. Flags) and the slogan of "Wir sind das Volk (We are the people)"-
A recent speech by Alexander Gauland in Saxony: "Just like then, my friends, angry citizens are taking to the streets, to demand their rights. Just like then, these Citizens are being attacked by violent mobs, being defamed by the media, and being punished in their occupations. Again Saxony is the heart of the resistance"

They are putting themselves on the footing of the East German Civil rights movement of 1989 and comparing the current German State, or the "Merkel regime" if you so will, to the socialist regime in East Germany. It is a problematic comparison of course, but is is working. The fact that it is shows quite clearly how east Germans feel like they were sold down the river since Unification, and how split Germany is as a country. The AFD feels at times actually like encouraging east german nationalism, but at the same time their central ideology remains German nationalism. It is bizzare.

Isnt that the whole raison d'etre of the Linke party?

[DL]

In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

Wouldnt that also have an impact on the Green Party and their plans to spend trillions of euros putting a wind turbine in every backyard?

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I’m guessing that Sachsen ends up with a CDU-SPD-Green coalition. What is more likely in Brandenburg? SPD-CDU-Green or Red-Red-Green?

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Would the SPD in Brandenburg prefer a Red-Black-Green coalition or a Red-Red-Green coalition assuming both are mathematically possible?

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Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

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Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Federal economics minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) just gave a remarkable TV performance this evening in which - when pushed for an answer why his party refuses to cooperate with the Left so steadfastly - the CDU's position on the Left Party basically switched from "but they're left-wing extremists" to "well, we don't agree on a lot of issues, especially in the area of foreign policy".

I was not aware that the state government of Thuringia was able to have a foreign policy

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So what's the latest - will there be a new election in Thuringen or not?

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Why does the FDP even continue to exist when they are so indistinguishable from the CDU? What is their “unique selling proposition”? I know they were once nicknamed “the party of doctors and dentists” but do doctors and dentists really need their own party?

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If my German is correct it appears that the FDP will NOT make it into the house.

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What is the revised seat distribution with the FDP reduced to 1 seat?

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Why wouldn't a CDU/FDP black-yellow coalition be called "the bumblebee coalition"?

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Presumably if the SPD does well nationally and has momentum - it will also lift the SPD in state elections that take place on the same day - meaning its likely the SPD remains the largest party in Berlin.

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Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

[DL]

BW won't have a state election until 2026 but NRW has election next Spring and it seems that the SPD should  be pretty heavily favoured to win back a state was was their historic stronghold - especially with Laschet having fall so totally flat on his face

[DL]

Lmao, Bavaria not looking good for Sönnenkönig Söder at this point, though he has plently of time to turn it around. But it disproves the myth that Söder is so popular.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447977540765769731

The CSU has been in power continuously in Bavaria since the end of the Second World War. If an election were held and these were the results, I wonder if there would be a will among the SPD, Greens and FDP (and maybe FW) to create a traffic light or traffic light+FW (whatever you call that) just to oust the CSU from power and let the winds of change blow through Bavaria?

[DL]

New Saarland poll dropped!

Voting intention (comparison to last poll):
CDU: 29 % (+1)
SPD: 38 % (+5)
Linke: 5 % (-1)
AfD: 8 % (-1)
Greens: 6 % (-2)
FDP: 6 % (-2)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke above 5 %:

CDU: 17 (-7)
SPD: 22 (+5)
Linke: 2 (-5)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke below 5 %:

CDU: 18 (-6)
SPD: 23 (+6)
Linke: 0 (-7)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

With either of these results what is more likely? An SPD led grand coalition or an SPD led Red/green or traffick light coalition?

[DL]

I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

It will be interesting to see what happens in NRW. Its usually been an SPD stronghold but currently has a CDU/FDP coalition. Looking at the polls there seems to be zero chance of that being repeated after the May 2022 elections. Looks like the math may be there for a SPD/Green government or a grand coalition led by either SPD or CDU

[DL]

I wonder if the existence of the traffic light coalition at the federal level will increase the likelihood of traffic light coalitions being formed at the state level?

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If this poll is borne out i guess we would almost certainly be looking at an SPD/Green coalition

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Could be absolute majority for SPD?

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How important is control of the Bundesrat to the traffic light coalition? Do they need to win some new state elections to be able to get a majority there and pass legislation?

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The composition of the Bundesrat is rather important given that the Greens are part of the governing federal coalition and NRW is the largest state.

If I'm not mistaken, the composition of the coalition in a state government has an impact on how that state's Bundesrat members can vote. So hypothetically a CDU majority government in NRW would send Bundesrat members who would have the power to vote down legislation, but if NRW end up with a CDU led "grand coalition" or a CDU led black-Green coalition, the NRW members in the Bundesrat are "neutered" and cannot vote down bills.

[DL]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

This could still yield a red-green majority especially if thé FDP drops below 5%