The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

From the NY-14 thread (there are probably many more there):

Safe Crowley

Justice dems are walking into the bar thinking that they are the hot cr@p. Let's show them up tonight just like we have been doing.

Lol, at least we still wrecked Manning and a couple others, though it was still a crap night, could have been worse though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I feel Mourdock and Akin should be on here instead.

For some reason, I think Akin could still pull this off. I think this is going to be like gay marriage polls - people don't really want to say over the phone that they're voting for Akin because of his comments, but when they get into the polling place, they go ahead and vote for him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!

Um, do you have any recollection of how unfavorable the polls were for Toomey most of the race, or how very narrowly he won?

His re-election was arguably the second biggest upset/comeback of 2016 only behind Trump winning.

The RCP average was McGinty +2, that is 0 justification to say that someone is finished, that is literally well within moe.

Granted it was plus 5 by the time of the post, but still, that is ridiculous.

Only delusional and thick Atlasian overconfidence would say a republican is finished when they are only five points down a few days from the election. Sure, the dem could win, and is favored, I had McGinty winning too, but saying Toomey was finished is an utter moronic joke.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was unable to watch it on Election night because the TVs were muted at the party. I just watched it and all I have to say is that what you did to this man and his family will never be forgotten. I am not going to go insane on anyone; I just wanted to voice my serious disgust for what has happened to them. To put it nicely, Republicans will see to it that Bob Casey never enjoys another electoral victory for himself in a General election. This will never be forgotten.

LUL, moron, sad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Spoiler alert: Moore will win.

Stop kidding yourselves.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

BOLD prediction: Comstock wins in a squeaker.

Womp womp.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

BOLD prediction: Comstock wins in a squeaker.

Womp womp.

I was being BOLD. But I was off quite a bit on that lol

That was beyond bold buddy lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tester is doomed. This is what you get for betraying your constituents.

Haha

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema would get smacked. At this time, Arizona won't elect a LGBT person on a state level. If you come back to me in ten years, I might say meh, just because of the rising hispanic population that will eventually swing the state blue. The best chance we got to actually give Jeff Flake a run for his money is Gabby Gifford's husband.

Omg haha.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There is no darn question that Nelson will win, but definitely not with margins that wide! It will probably be 53% to 45%.

Oof.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Moore may give Doug Jones a chance...

Not in that inbred state.

Oh the things I would find out...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.

Womp womp. Also in before this dude rebuttals by saying that McSally won the vote before “the fraud”.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just to restate it, final prediction is 61-39 CHS wins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes way.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think this could be the big anomaly of the race, even though I think Kaine wins Virginia around 56-41 in the end, I could see him winning Prince William by only 3-5 points, or even losing it in a theoretical underwhelming dem performance. Stewart is from there, and has just done remarkably well there in primaries and GE's. Regardless of whether or not you like Stewart, you have to give him credit for doing so well in Prince William so many times. Especially since he is not even the type of Republican that is generally thought of as a good fit for the county. He is quite alt right and crazy and it is impressive how well he keeps doing there. Right now, I think Kaine wins Prince William 51-46. This is not to say that the statewide race will be close, because there is little chance of that happening, rather Prince William has a good chance of being an outlier, fluke, or an anomaly due to individual candidate strength in this one location from the otherwise Stewart shellacking state margins in which he easily loses by double digits to Kaine. What do yall think?

Gotta give him credit where credit is due, he did actually almost nail the result.

And if my PWC guess was not so sh!tty, I would have gotten 57-41.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema would get smacked. At this time, Arizona won't elect a LGBT person on a state level. If you come back to me in ten years, I might say meh, just because of the rising hispanic population that will eventually swing the state blue. The best chance we got to actually give Jeff Flake a run for his money is Gabby Gifford's husband.

Sad! But I stand by that Gifford's husband is the strongest candidate for 2020 now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

No, I agree that ancestral democratic districts with high white populations are the most likely to flip.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rohrbacher and Erik Paulsen

Context: Strongest GOP incumbents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another Bagel masterpiece of wetting the bed

67-53 far right hold on Israel is my final guess. Horrific governance and policy will continue to come out of the top echelons of the federal government of Israel for decades to come.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

Preemptively marked

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If working-class whites in Kentucky support Trump so much, why did I just vote against him?

All the Trump support I see here is from the rich.

Big yikes

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just out of curiosity, how much do you think Bevin loses by? And your guesses for the other statewide races while you are at it.

Beshear +5. Attorney General and SoS +10 each.

I haven't even thought about the other races, since most of those have been Republican forever.

And what did you think in 2015 around this same time buddy?

Conway +5 just like every poll says.

Ah, I see.