Strongest Republican Incumbents

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ignoring the partisan lean of their districts, who are the strongest republican incumbents (most likely to overperform their districts partisan lean)? Are there any incumbent republicans that are as strong as Colin Peterson?

Carlos Curbelo and Elise Stefanik come to mind as some pretty strong incumbents, although I doubt they are Peterson level strong.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Curbelo will probably lose, I agree on Stefanik.

Curbelo can lose and still be a very strong incumbent. He's facing a good challenger and is in a Clinton + 16 district. Another incumbent would probably lose by harder than Curbelo.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mike Turner, Mario Díaz-Balart, Peter King, Elise Stefanik, and David Valadao (maybe) come to mind. But I doubt any overperform as much as Peterson.

[Xing]

David Valadao, since a weaker incumbent would probably be toast in CA-21.

Also Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller!

[KingSweden]

David Joyce, Mike Turner, Elise Stefanik, JHB, David Valadao

[Tartarus Sauce]

David Valadao and Peter King are probably the strongest of the strong when comparing district lean to electoral performance. LoBiondo would also be on the list if he hadn't retired. Nobody outperforms like Peterson though. It's amazing that seat is still held by a Democrat, even a very conservative one like Peterson.

[mencken]

Nobody has mentioned John Katko?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ros-Lehtinen, Reichert

Luckily, both are retiring.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Nobody has mentioned John Katko?

Good call on that.

[Doimper]

Does Stefanik have any strong challengers? She's going to have a long future in the GOP if we don't knock her out now.

[Virginiá]

My Congressman would probably qualify if he was running. He seems to be well-liked, and he won by a solid margin in 2006.

Who?

[IceSpear]

A Heller/Comstock ticket would win in 2020 by 97 points tbh

[publicunofficial]

A Heller/Comstock ticket would win in 2020 by 97 points tbh

With maybe half a personality shared between them, I don't think so.

[Young Conservative]

Valadao, Comstock, and Stefanik easily

[Yellowhammer]

Rohrbacher and Erik Paulsen

[publicunofficial]

Incumbents no one has named yet:

Mike Coffman, Pete Sessions, Don Young, Ann Wagner

[PragmaticPopulist]

I would expect Will Hurd to overperform the lean of his district. Maybe Kevin Yoder as well.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Incumbents no one has named yet:

Mike Coffman, Pete Sessions, Don Young, Ann Wagner

I don't agree with any of these, and Don Young's margin was actually narrower than Trump's.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Don Young also only won by 9% in 2014

[Dipper Josh]

Nobody has mentioned John Katko?

I'd have to agree especially after Juanita Perez Williams fell on her face with that signature problem and the pro-life stuff the intercept just unearthed yesterday.

If Balters wins the primary I would have her as the slight favourite however.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does Stefanik have any strong challengers? She's going to have a long future in the GOP if we don't knock her out now.

I think Dylan Ratigan is running against her. I wouldn't consider him a strong challenger though.

[socaldem]

Rohrbacher and Erik Paulsen

Rohrabacher--lol. He's very weak.

Strong but extremely vulnerable: Bruce Poliquin, Brian Fitzpatrick, Barbara Comstock, Erik Paulsen, Carlos Curbelo

Possibly vulnerable but may win on strength as incumbents: Pete Sessions, Scott Taylor, David Valadao, John Katko

Relatively Safe: Elise Stefanik, Peter King, Mike Turner, David Joyce, Jaime Herrera Beutler