Roll Call: The 10 most vulnerable Senate/House incumbents

[MT Treasurer]

Senate

1. Dean Heller (R-NV)
2. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
3. Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
4. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
5. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
6. Bill Nelson (D-FL)
7. Jon Tester (D-MT)
8. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
9. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
10. Bob Casey (D-PA)

House

1. Rod Blum (R, IA-01)
2. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10)
3. Keith Rothfus (R, PA-17)
4. Jason Lewis (R, MN-02)
5. John Faso (R, NY-19)
6. Claudia Tenney (R, NY-22)
7. Carlos Curbelo (R, FL-26)
8. Steve Knight (R, CA-25)
9. Dana Rohrabacher (R, CA-48)
10. Mike Coffman (R, CO-06)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/six-months-10-vulnerable-senators-2018
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/six-months-10-vulnerable-house-incumbents

[Oryxslayer]

You know, I actually have no qualms with these - perhaps Blum goes further down the list, but compared to other "lists" like this, these all look fine.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Coffman should probably be above Tenney, and Rothfus and Lewis above Comstock, but other than that, it's a fantastic list.

[PoliticalShelter]

I am slightly surprised that Cruz isn't on that list.

[Kodak]

I am slightly surprised that Cruz isn't on that list.

I am as well. I think he's more vulnerable than Baldwin or Casey (although none of the three are particularly vulnerable right now).

[Politician]

The House list is reasonable, though I'd replace Faso and Coffman with Denham and Fitzparick.

The Senate list, remove Casey and Baldwin (LOL) and add Cruz.

[_]

Glad that Will Hurd isn't on there

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This does look mostly reasonable.
On the House list, I would swap Comstock & Blum.  I'd also put Curbelo and Knight a little higher.  I understand the hesitancy to move any CA incumbents too high before the primary though.

On the Senate list, I would swap Baldwin and Brown, and move Casey off at #10 in favor of Cruz.

[Sestak]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

I agree with it too. Rothfus and Lewis should be over Comstock too.

Rothfus will go down in flames. Not because he is a weak incumbent, but because he's facing Conor Lamb.

Comstock will obviously probably lose too, but I think she loses by less than the trio.

[ltomlinson31]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

I agree with it too. Comstock I expect to put up a good fight and do better than Trump's margin in the district, but it won't be enough. Meanwhile, I expect big swings in a lot of Obama/Trump districts. That, combined with Blum's scandals, makes him a perfect incumbent to get crushed in November.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Pretty good list, though I would put both Comstock and Blum lower on the list. Comstock is a stong incumbent, and Blum is in a somewhat favorable district, but both could still easily go down in a wave.

[Skye]

Huh, they actually put Nelson above Tester. Interesting, though I don't share the choice. Good list otherwise.

[JMT]

This does look mostly reasonable.
On the House list, I would swap Comstock & Blum.  I'd also put Curbelo and Knight a little higher.  I understand the hesitancy to move any CA incumbents too high before the primary though.

On the Senate list, I would swap Baldwin and Brown, and move Casey off at #10 in favor of Cruz.

I entirely agree with this

[Bidenworth2020]

switch tenney and faso and thats one hell of a list

[Blackacre]

I cant speak for the House list.

Senate list is... pretty good. Not too different from my list:

1. Dean Heller (R-NV)
2. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
3. Bill Nelson (D-FL)
4. Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
5. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
6. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
7. Jon Tester (D-MT)
8. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
9. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
10. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)

[mcmikk]

Lol @ Baldwin being more vulnerable than Brown. Not too terrible, though. Wisconsin isn't as overhyped as one might expect from one of these expert prognosticators.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol @ Baldwin being more vulnerable than Brown. Not too terrible, though. Wisconsin isn't as overhyped as one might expect from one of these expert prognosticators.

Brown, Baldwin, and Casey are safe.

[Young Conservative]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

No, I agree that ancestral democratic districts with high white populations are the most likely to flip.

[MT Treasurer]

Huh, they actually put Nelson above Tester. Interesting, though I don't share the choice. Good list otherwise.

It definitely makes sense. Scott has enough money to make it competitive, high name recognition/approval ratings, he’s probably going to run a more effective campaign in almost every way, retail politics is a lot easier in MT than FL, Nelson is a weaker incumbent than Tester, etc. I agree with the choice.

[Skye]

Huh, they actually put Nelson above Tester. Interesting, though I don't share the choice. Good list otherwise.

It definitely makes sense. Scott has enough money to make it competitive, high name recognition/approval ratings, he’s probably going to run a more effective campaign in almost every way, retail politics is a lot easier in MT than FL, Nelson is a weaker incumbent than Tester, etc. I agree with the choice.

Yeah, but we are expecting a Dem overperformance, so it'd make sense that the purple state Senator would be safer than the red state one. Though we haven't gotten like any polling at all from MT, so who knows.

[Politician]

Bump.

All 10 of the most vulnerable House incumbents lost.

The top 4 most vulnerable incumbents plus Nelson (6) lost.